Michigan
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
50  Aaron Baumgarten JR 31:35
118  Connor Herr SR 31:55
154  Connor Mora SR 32:03
190  Billy Bund JR 32:11
249  Jordan Hewitt FR 32:22
351  Ned Willig SR 32:38
366  Austin Benoit JR 32:40
446  Kyle Kroon SO 32:50
602  Kevin Hall FR 33:07
979  Micah Beller JR 33:42
National Rank #22 of 312
Great Lakes Region Rank #3 of 31
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 79.4%
Most Likely Finish 19th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 4.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 43.7%


Regional Champion 11.7%
Top 5 in Regional 98.8%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Baumgarten Connor Herr Connor Mora Billy Bund Jordan Hewitt Ned Willig Austin Benoit Kyle Kroon Kevin Hall Micah Beller
Sycamore Invitational 09/10 647 31:38 32:16 32:18 32:24 32:06 32:23
Roy Griak Invitational 09/24 447 31:06 31:28 32:00 32:43 32:02 32:29 32:13 32:48 34:04
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Open) 10/15 32:27 32:36 33:08
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 522 31:17 32:09 31:22 32:15 32:27 32:30 34:37
Big 10 Championship 10/30 653 31:37 32:16 32:05 32:10 32:57 33:24 33:02 33:14 32:42
Great Lakes Region Championships 11/11 590 31:40 31:57 32:49 31:40 32:12 33:49 34:23





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 79.4% 19.6 492 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 3.5 3.3 3.7 4.4 4.4 5.3 5.8 5.1 4.7 5.0 3.9 4.9 4.2 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.2 0.4
Region Championship 100% 3.0 88 11.7 25.3 28.0 21.6 12.2 1.2 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Baumgarten 96.0% 55.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.3
Connor Herr 83.3% 96.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Connor Mora 81.4% 120.0
Billy Bund 80.0% 145.9
Jordan Hewitt 79.5% 169.1
Ned Willig 79.4% 201.9
Austin Benoit 79.4% 206.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Baumgarten 4.4 9.6 15.2 12.3 9.1 8.6 6.0 5.6 4.3 4.1 3.3 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4
Connor Herr 12.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.7 4.5 4.9 6.2 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.4 4.7 4.1 4.4 3.7 3.0 3.9 2.5 3.2 2.6 1.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.8
Connor Mora 15.7 0.2 0.2 1.9 1.8 2.5 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.1 4.8 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.1 3.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.6
Billy Bund 20.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.8 1.7 3.2 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.8 3.4 4.6 3.8 3.2 4.4 3.7 4.2 3.6 2.7 2.6
Jordan Hewitt 27.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.9 3.8 4.2 2.9 3.8 3.5
Ned Willig 37.7 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.7
Austin Benoit 38.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 11.7% 100.0% 11.7 11.7 1
2 25.3% 100.0% 25.3 25.3 2
3 28.0% 84.6% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.8 3.2 4.7 3.0 4.3 23.7 3
4 21.6% 63.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.2 8.0 13.7 4
5 12.2% 40.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.4 7.3 5.0 5
6 1.2% 8.3% 0.1 1.1 0.1 6
7 0.1% 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
Total 100% 79.4% 11.7 25.3 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.4 3.6 5.5 4.9 5.8 7.6 7.5 20.7 37.0 42.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
UCLA 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 92.4% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 85.2% 1.0 0.9
UTEP 82.2% 1.0 0.8
Southern Utah 71.5% 1.0 0.7
Navy 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Illinois 32.4% 2.0 0.6
Indiana 23.1% 1.0 0.2
Bradley 9.8% 1.0 0.1
Minnesota 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Furman 4.4% 2.0 0.1
Dartmouth 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Air Force 0.6% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.1% 1.0 0.0
California 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 5.8
Minimum 2.0
Maximum 12.0