BYU
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
131  Natalie Connolly JR 20:08
135  Carrie Jube SR 20:08
169  Yesenia Silva JR 20:14
197  Jennica Redd SR 20:19
247  Alice Jensen FR 20:27
453  Alyssa Steed SO 20:51
577  Laura Young SO 21:01
712  Ashleigh Warner SO 21:13
1,044  Rachel Cannon FR 21:38
National Rank #21 of 339
Mountain Region Rank #3 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 81.6%
Most Likely Finish 20th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 7.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 43.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 80.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Natalie Connolly Carrie Jube Yesenia Silva Jennica Redd Alice Jensen Alyssa Steed Laura Young Ashleigh Warner Rachel Cannon
Washington Invitational 10/02 523 20:05 20:14 20:19 20:19 20:22 21:01 20:52
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 466 19:55 20:01 19:58 20:03 20:38 20:50 21:03
West Coast Conference 10/31 695 20:21 20:51 20:21 20:18 20:20 20:46 21:04 22:09 21:39
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 562 20:03 20:12 20:15 20:13 20:31 21:55 21:02
NCAA Championship 11/21 725 20:19 20:04 20:28 21:37 20:34 20:54 21:37





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 81.6% 19.6 493 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 4.3 4.4 4.5 5.0 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.4 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.0 0.3
Region Championship 100% 4.2 139 2.6 39.2 22.4 16.6 10.3 5.9 2.6 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Connolly 82.4% 107.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Carrie Jube 82.2% 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Yesenia Silva 81.9% 125.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jennica Redd 81.7% 140.9 0.0
Alice Jensen 81.6% 162.0 0.0 0.0
Alyssa Steed 81.6% 214.2
Laura Young 81.6% 229.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Natalie Connolly 21.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.8 3.8 3.2 4.1 3.6 4.6 4.1 4.4 3.9 4.8 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.6
Carrie Jube 21.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.0 4.0
Yesenia Silva 25.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2
Jennica Redd 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.8 3.3
Alice Jensen 35.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2
Alyssa Steed 53.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Laura Young 62.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2.6% 100.0% 2.6 2.6 2
3 39.2% 100.0% 4.7 7.6 14.2 8.6 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.2 3
4 22.4% 99.6% 1.1 1.9 4.1 3.1 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 22.3 4
5 16.6% 75.6% 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 4.0 12.5 5
6 10.3% 39.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 6.2 4.1 6
7 5.9% 11.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.2 0.7 7
8 2.6% 3.1% 0.1 2.5 0.1 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 81.6% 2.6 4.7 8.7 16.1 12.7 6.6 4.6 4.1 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.2 3.5 3.3 18.4 2.6 79.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Penn State 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 99.1% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 96.5% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 95.5% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 94.1% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 93.0% 1.0 0.9
Vanderbilt 92.1% 1.0 0.9
William and Mary 40.1% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina 39.3% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 21.4% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 11.7% 1.0 0.1
West Virginia 10.3% 1.0 0.1
Air Force 10.1% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 8.6% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.4% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Indiana 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Tulsa 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Boston College 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 1.3% 1.0 0.0
Gonzaga 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Washington 0.7% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 8.7
Minimum 3.0
Maximum 16.0