BYU
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
50  Aaron Fletcher SR 31:32
56  Dallin Farnsworth FR 31:35
83  Connor McMillan SO 31:44
130  Nicolas Montanez JR 31:58
153  Dallin Taylor SO 32:04
163  Dylan Shawhan SR 32:08
168  Mitchell Briggs SR 32:09
220  Jonathan Harper SO 32:20
439  Clayton Young FR 32:52
National Rank #8 of 308
Mountain Region Rank #2 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.6%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 20.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 63.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 94.9%


Regional Champion 2.0%
Top 5 in Regional 99.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Aaron Fletcher Dallin Farnsworth Connor McMillan Nicolas Montanez Dallin Taylor Dylan Shawhan Mitchell Briggs Jonathan Harper Clayton Young
Washington Invitational 10/02 507 31:41 31:44 31:48 32:08 32:14 32:10 32:09 32:11 32:16
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 424 31:32 31:30 31:41 32:15 32:11 31:52 32:40
West Coast Conference 10/31 346 31:19 31:31 31:54 31:25 31:51 31:56 32:00 32:28 33:06
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 452 31:37 31:22 31:39 31:59 32:22 33:50
NCAA Championship 11/21 495 31:41 31:37 31:42 32:17 32:07 32:23 33:24





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.6% 9.6 323 0.2 1.3 3.1 6.1 10.1 10.0 9.8 8.8 7.5 6.9 5.8 5.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Region Championship 100% 2.5 85 2.0 62.8 23.0 8.3 2.9 0.9 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Fletcher 99.1% 51.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Dallin Farnsworth 98.9% 56.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2
Connor McMillan 98.6% 76.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
Nicolas Montanez 98.6% 108.9 0.0 0.1 0.0
Dallin Taylor 98.6% 123.7
Dylan Shawhan 98.6% 134.4
Mitchell Briggs 98.6% 135.2


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Aaron Fletcher 11.1 0.4 2.0 2.5 3.7 4.4 4.7 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.5 5.9 5.3 5.1 4.4 4.3 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3
Dallin Farnsworth 12.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.7 6.2 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.5 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.7
Connor McMillan 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.0 3.2 3.9 4.8 5.4 6.1 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.3 4.7 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.7 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.4
Nicolas Montanez 21.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.8 5.2 5.2 5.7 5.0 5.4 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.7
Dallin Taylor 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.0 3.3 3.9 5.2 4.7 5.5 5.1 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.3
Dylan Shawhan 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.5 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2
Mitchell Briggs 26.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.9 5.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 2.0% 100.0% 2.0 2.0 1
2 62.8% 100.0% 62.8 62.8 2
3 23.0% 100.0% 13.9 6.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 23.0 3
4 8.3% 100.0% 2.8 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.3 4
5 2.9% 66.0% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.9 5
6 0.9% 55.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 6
7 0.1% 33.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 98.6% 2.0 62.8 13.9 8.8 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.4 64.8 33.8




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Iona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Virginia 97.6% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Michigan State 90.9% 1.0 0.9
Furman 88.3% 1.0 0.9
North Carolina St. 87.9% 1.0 0.9
Washington 77.6% 2.0 1.6
Columbia 70.8% 1.0 0.7
Eastern Kentucky 65.9% 1.0 0.7
Tulsa 64.7% 1.0 0.6
UCLA 64.4% 2.0 1.3
Indiana 61.1% 1.0 0.6
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Air Force 40.3% 1.0 0.4
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Providence 14.1% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Portland 2.2% 3.0 0.1
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 15.7
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 24.0