Portland
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
57  Jasmijn Lau FR 19:44
97  Taryn Rawlings JR 19:57
311  Aoibhe Richardson SO 20:32
791  Courtney Cox JR 21:14
1,001  Susan Van Weperen FR 21:28
1,073  Mathilde Sagnes SR 21:33
1,243  Lacey Conner FR 21:44
1,301  Becca Howard JR 21:48
1,338  Stella Gillman SO 21:50
1,433  Sophia Noto JR 21:56
1,702  Natalie Smith SO 22:13
National Rank #47 of 348
West Region Rank #8 of 40
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 1.6%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.0%
Top 10 in Regional 64.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jasmijn Lau Taryn Rawlings Aoibhe Richardson Courtney Cox Susan Van Weperen Mathilde Sagnes Lacey Conner Becca Howard Stella Gillman Sophia Noto Natalie Smith
Ash Creek Invitational 09/08 1376 22:01
Charles Bowles Willamette Invitational 09/30
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 22:12 21:17
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 706 19:32 20:01 20:25 21:04 21:29 21:39 22:35
West Coast Conference 10/27 830 19:45 20:24 20:41 21:12 21:44 21:30 22:09 21:40
West Region Championships 11/10 727 19:56 19:33 20:32 21:16 22:14 21:30 22:12





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 1.6% 25.7 604 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 10.0 320 1.1 7.6 19.4 20.9 15.6 12.8 8.9 6.3 3.7 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jasmijn Lau 62.7% 56.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6
Taryn Rawlings 21.0% 76.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Aoibhe Richardson 1.7% 167.5
Courtney Cox 1.6% 229.5
Susan Van Weperen 1.6% 239.0
Mathilde Sagnes 1.6% 244.0
Lacey Conner 1.6% 246.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jasmijn Lau 18.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.1 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.6 3.8 2.6 3.6 3.1
Taryn Rawlings 26.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.5 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.2
Aoibhe Richardson 57.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
Courtney Cox 100.4
Susan Van Weperen 118.7
Mathilde Sagnes 125.0
Lacey Conner 141.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 1.1% 61.9% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 6
7 7.6% 8.6% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 6.9 0.7 7
8 19.4% 1.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.2 0.3 8
9 20.9% 0.2% 0.1 20.8 0.1 9
10 15.6% 15.6 10
11 12.8% 12.8 11
12 8.9% 8.9 12
13 6.3% 6.3 13
14 3.7% 3.7 14
15 2.5% 2.5 15
16 1.1% 1.1 16
17 0.5% 0.5 17
18 0.1% 0.1 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
Total 100% 1.6% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 98.4 0.0 1.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0