Portland
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
13  Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse SO 31:02
20  Jeff Thies SR 31:12
24  Nick Hauger JR 31:18
90  Caleb Webb SO 31:44
122  Logan Orndorf JR 31:52
179  Reuben Kiprono FR 32:05
213  Gabriel Haughey JR 32:11
249  Tristan Peloquin SO 32:18
295  Noah Schutte JR 32:26
414  Riley Osen FR 32:40
626  Joe Horen SO 33:04
840  Cobie Chavez-Killinger SO 33:26
1,098  Henry Hayes FR 33:46
National Rank #4 of 315
West Region Rank #2 of 33
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 99.8%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Nationals


National Champion 1.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 54.3%
Top 10 at Nationals 90.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.7%


Regional Champion 32.5%
Top 5 in Regional 99.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse Jeff Thies Nick Hauger Caleb Webb Logan Orndorf Reuben Kiprono Gabriel Haughey Tristan Peloquin Noah Schutte Riley Osen Joe Horen
Charles Blowles Willamette Invitational 09/30 1197
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 221 31:05 31:04 31:04 31:43 31:34 32:35 32:23
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/14 920 32:24 32:20 32:53
West Coast Conference 10/27 396 31:05 31:06 31:31 32:08 32:22 33:03 32:56
West Region Championships 11/10 284 31:09 31:15 31:18 31:44 31:54 32:10 31:48





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 99.8% 6.0 228 1.4 4.8 15.2 17.3 15.7 11.5 9.2 7.5 4.1 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.0 70 32.5 43.3 15.9 5.8 1.8 0.6 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse 100.0% 15.0 0.5 1.1 1.5 3.1 3.2 3.5 5.7 4.7 4.4 4.8 5.0 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.0 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4
Jeff Thies 100.0% 25.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5
Nick Hauger 99.9% 30.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.3
Caleb Webb 99.8% 81.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Logan Orndorf 99.8% 102.9 0.1 0.1 0.1
Reuben Kiprono 99.8% 135.7
Gabriel Haughey 99.8% 151.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse 2.1 28.4 20.2 12.2 7.3 6.1 3.9 3.8 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
Jeff Thies 4.5 7.4 13.7 13.5 11.5 8.3 6.0 4.8 4.3 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8
Nick Hauger 5.8 3.7 9.3 11.3 11.0 9.4 6.6 5.9 4.3 4.2 3.4 2.8 3.3 1.9 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.6
Caleb Webb 20.8 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.9 2.5 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.0 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.6 4.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8
Logan Orndorf 26.9 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.8 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.6 3.6
Reuben Kiprono 36.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.9 2.1 2.3
Gabriel Haughey 43.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.5 1.5




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 32.5% 100.0% 32.5 32.5 1
2 43.3% 100.0% 43.3 43.3 2
3 15.9% 100.0% 11.1 3.6 1.2 0.1 15.9 3
4 5.8% 100.0% 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 5.8 4
5 1.8% 97.2% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.8 5
6 0.6% 91.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 6
7 0.2% 50.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
Total 100% 99.8% 32.5 43.3 11.1 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 75.8 24.1




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Furman 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Colorado St. 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Southern Utah 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Stanford 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Michigan State 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 1.0 0.9
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 1.0 0.7
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Washington St. 42.1% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 1.0 0.4
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 2.0 0.4
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 16.5
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 21.0