Pre-tourney Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.4#58
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#36
Pace69.1#195
Improvement-4.1#318

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#126
First Shot+2.5#103
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#228
Layup/Dunks+1.9#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#206
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-4.5#335

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#20
First Shot+5.7#30
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#23
Layups/Dunks+4.2#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
Freethrows+2.7#38
Improvement+0.4#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 2.6% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 8.0 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% n/a n/a
First Round95.9% n/a n/a
Second Round40.4% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen7.5% n/a n/a
Elite Eight2.3% n/a n/a
Final Four0.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.1% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 8 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 338   Southeast Missouri St. W 84-53 98%     1 - 0 +14.4 +0.1 +12.6
  Nov 17, 2015 81   Alabama W 80-48 70%     2 - 0 +36.1 +6.4 +27.7
  Nov 21, 2015 92   William & Mary W 69-66 73%     3 - 0 +6.0 -4.0 +10.0
  Nov 26, 2015 21   Iowa W 82-77 30%     4 - 0 +19.9 +12.1 +7.5
  Nov 27, 2015 85   Monmouth W 73-70 61%     5 - 0 +9.6 +3.4 +6.1
  Nov 29, 2015 15   Xavier L 61-90 27%     5 - 1 -13.2 -10.8 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2015 178   North Florida W 86-71 89%     6 - 1 +11.2 +1.4 +9.2
  Dec 09, 2015 25   @ Vanderbilt W 72-67 23%     7 - 1 +22.3 +8.7 +13.7
  Dec 12, 2015 106   Chattanooga L 59-61 77%     7 - 2 -0.3 -5.7 +5.2
  Dec 19, 2015 168   Furman W 70-50 88%     8 - 2 +16.6 +3.4 +15.6
  Dec 22, 2015 244   Miami (OH) W 64-63 94%     9 - 2 -6.7 +1.4 -8.0
  Dec 30, 2015 66   Arkansas W 85-81 OT 65%     10 - 2 +9.3 +3.6 +5.2
  Jan 02, 2016 151   @ Duquesne W 66-58 71%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +11.7 -10.2 +21.4
  Jan 06, 2016 162   Massachusetts W 93-63 87%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +27.1 +18.9 +7.7
  Jan 09, 2016 250   @ La Salle L 57-61 87%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -6.5 -9.0 +2.0
  Jan 12, 2016 105   Davidson W 80-74 76%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +8.0 +8.9 -0.5
  Jan 15, 2016 72   George Washington W 77-70 67%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +11.8 +6.2 +5.7
  Jan 19, 2016 83   @ St. Bonaventure W 85-79 49%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +15.7 +7.8 +7.4
  Jan 24, 2016 148   @ Fordham W 64-50 70%     16 - 3 6 - 1 +17.9 -0.9 +19.8
  Jan 27, 2016 211   Saint Louis W 73-37 92%     17 - 3 7 - 1 +29.8 +0.9 +29.1
  Jan 30, 2016 250   La Salle W 59-44 94%     18 - 3 8 - 1 +6.7 -0.4 +11.3
  Feb 06, 2016 196   @ George Mason W 98-64 79%     19 - 3 9 - 1 +34.8 +27.6 +7.5
  Feb 09, 2016 151   Duquesne W 76-74 86%     20 - 3 10 - 1 -0.1 -3.4 +3.2
  Feb 12, 2016 90   @ Rhode Island W 68-66 51%     21 - 3 11 - 1 +11.2 +2.0 +9.1
  Feb 17, 2016 44   @ Saint Joseph's L 70-79 34%     21 - 4 11 - 2 +4.6 -1.3 +6.2
  Feb 20, 2016 83   St. Bonaventure L 72-79 70%     21 - 5 11 - 3 -3.1 -2.1 -1.0
  Feb 23, 2016 211   @ Saint Louis W 52-49 OT 82%     22 - 5 12 - 3 +2.7 -21.3 +23.8
  Feb 27, 2016 90   Rhode Island L 66-75 72%     22 - 6 12 - 4 -5.7 -1.1 -5.0
  Mar 01, 2016 103   @ Richmond W 85-84 56%     23 - 6 13 - 4 +8.9 +12.2 -3.3
  Mar 05, 2016 35   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-67 OT 52%     24 - 6 14 - 4 +9.8 -7.4 +17.1
  Mar 11, 2016 103   Richmond W 69-54 66%     25 - 6 +20.0 -8.4 +27.7
  Mar 12, 2016 44   Saint Joseph's L 79-82 45%     25 - 7 +7.7 -1.5 +9.6
Projected Record 25.0 - 7.0 14.0 - 4.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 95.9% 95.9% 8.0 0.0 2.5 26.5 37.5 24.2 5.0 0.2 4.1 95.9%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.9% 0.0% 95.9% 8.0 0.0 2.5 26.5 37.5 24.2 5.0 0.2 4.1 95.9%