Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#220
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#68
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#28
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 9.0% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 8.7% 9.0% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 16.3% 9.0% 1.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.9% 44.8% 21.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.3% 40.2% 16.9%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.8
.500 or above 70.8% 72.1% 38.5%
.500 or above in Conference 49.9% 50.7% 27.0%
Conference Champion 7.2% 7.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.8% 11.3% 24.8%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 2.8%
First Round41.5% 42.4% 19.5%
Second Round24.2% 24.8% 8.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.7% 10.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.2% 1.1%
Final Four1.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.1 - 4.41.1 - 4.4
Quad 1b2.0 - 3.23.1 - 7.7
Quad 24.3 - 3.47.4 - 11.1
Quad 34.5 - 1.411.9 - 12.6
Quad 46.1 - 0.418.1 - 12.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 284   Siena W 75-59 96%    
  Nov 09, 2018 81   Wichita St. W 74-70 63%    
  Nov 13, 2018 206   Holy Cross W 70-58 92%    
  Nov 17, 2018 61   South Carolina W 69-68 53%    
  Nov 18, 2018 19   Michigan L 64-68 37%    
  Nov 24, 2018 133   Iona W 78-71 82%    
  Nov 27, 2018 252   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-66 94%    
  Dec 01, 2018 103   Rhode Island W 72-66 77%    
  Dec 04, 2018 78   @ Boston College W 74-71 50%    
  Dec 07, 2018 154   Massachusetts W 74-65 85%    
  Dec 16, 2018 313   Central Connecticut St. W 77-58 97%    
  Dec 18, 2018 278   Albany W 75-59 94%    
  Dec 21, 2018 26   @ Texas L 66-68 32%    
  Dec 31, 2018 41   Creighton L 74-75 58%    
  Jan 05, 2019 8   Villanova L 69-76 36%    
  Jan 12, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 75-73 46%    
  Jan 15, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 73-72 60%    
  Jan 20, 2019 24   @ Marquette L 74-77 31%    
  Jan 23, 2019 44   @ Xavier L 73-74 39%    
  Jan 27, 2019 89   DePaul W 73-69 73%    
  Jan 30, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 73-72 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 73-69 54%    
  Feb 06, 2019 69   Georgetown W 75-73 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 31   @ St. John's L 71-73 35%    
  Feb 13, 2019 8   @ Villanova L 69-76 21%    
  Feb 16, 2019 44   Xavier L 73-74 59%    
  Feb 20, 2019 31   St. John's L 71-73 54%    
  Feb 23, 2019 24   Marquette L 74-77 50%    
  Feb 26, 2019 33   @ Butler L 70-71 36%    
  Mar 06, 2019 41   @ Creighton L 74-75 38%    
  Mar 09, 2019 33   Butler L 70-71 56%    
Projected Record 18.1 - 12.9 8.5 - 9.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 7.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 4.3 3.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.8 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 2.8 0.4 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 9.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.5 10th
Total 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.4 7.9 8.7 10.6 11.5 11.1 10.4 9.2 7.3 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.4% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 78.5% 1.6    1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 56.2% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.9% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 8.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.2% 7.2 4.4 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.0% 100.0% 23.6% 76.3% 2.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.5% 99.2% 18.6% 80.5% 4.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
13-5 4.8% 98.4% 15.6% 82.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
12-6 7.3% 94.8% 13.9% 80.9% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 93.9%
11-7 9.2% 89.1% 10.5% 78.7% 7.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 87.9%
10-8 10.4% 70.3% 9.3% 61.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 67.3%
9-9 11.1% 48.8% 5.0% 43.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.7 46.1%
8-10 11.5% 23.9% 5.8% 18.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.8 19.2%
7-11 10.6% 9.6% 4.0% 5.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 5.8%
6-12 8.7% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5 0.2%
5-13 7.9% 2.2% 2.1% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.2%
4-14 5.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
3-15 3.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.3
2-16 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 43.9% 7.5% 36.4% 7.4 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.4 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.0 4.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 56.1 39.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7