Preseason Rankings
Villanova
Big East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#8
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.0#179
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 18.8% 18.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 35.2% 56.6% 19.5%
Top 4 Seed 56.6% 56.6% 19.5%
Top 6 Seed 70.2% 56.6% 19.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.7% 90.7% 61.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.0% 87.1% 57.0%
Average Seed 4.2 4.2 6.2
.500 or above 96.3% 96.3% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 91.5% 89.0%
Conference Champion 44.8% 44.8% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round89.7% 89.8% 61.0%
Second Round72.6% 72.6% 49.0%
Sweet Sixteen46.5% 46.5% 28.8%
Elite Eight27.7% 27.7% 18.8%
Final Four15.2% 15.2% 0.0%
Championship Game8.2% 8.2% 0.0%
National Champion4.5% 4.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.3 - 3.12.3 - 3.1
Quad 1b3.5 - 1.95.7 - 5.0
Quad 27.3 - 1.813.0 - 6.9
Quad 36.7 - 0.619.7 - 7.5
Quad 43.7 - 0.123.4 - 7.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 89-60 99.9%   
  Nov 10, 2018 238   Quinnipiac W 84-63 99%    
  Nov 14, 2018 19   Michigan W 71-68 72%    
  Nov 17, 2018 123   Furman W 82-68 94%    
  Nov 22, 2018 162   Canisius W 84-67 93%    
  Nov 23, 2018 74   Oklahoma St. W 80-70 81%    
  Nov 25, 2018 15   Florida St. W 81-78 60%    
  Dec 01, 2018 166   @ La Salle W 84-67 89%    
  Dec 05, 2018 72   Temple W 79-69 87%    
  Dec 08, 2018 106   Saint Joseph's W 82-69 91%    
  Dec 11, 2018 125   @ Penn W 81-67 83%    
  Dec 15, 2018 1   @ Kansas L 75-78 30%    
  Dec 22, 2018 96   Connecticut W 80-68 85%    
  Jan 02, 2019 89   DePaul W 81-70 89%    
  Jan 05, 2019 47   @ Providence W 76-69 64%    
  Jan 08, 2019 31   St. John's W 79-74 76%    
  Jan 13, 2019 41   @ Creighton W 81-75 61%    
  Jan 18, 2019 44   Xavier W 82-75 79%    
  Jan 22, 2019 33   @ Butler W 77-71 59%    
  Jan 27, 2019 52   Seton Hall W 80-73 81%    
  Jan 30, 2019 89   @ DePaul W 81-70 76%    
  Feb 03, 2019 69   Georgetown W 82-73 84%    
  Feb 06, 2019 41   Creighton W 81-75 79%    
  Feb 09, 2019 24   @ Marquette W 81-77 53%    
  Feb 13, 2019 47   Providence W 76-69 79%    
  Feb 17, 2019 31   @ St. John's W 79-74 57%    
  Feb 20, 2019 69   @ Georgetown W 82-73 69%    
  Feb 24, 2019 44   @ Xavier W 82-75 62%    
  Feb 27, 2019 24   Marquette W 81-77 72%    
  Mar 02, 2019 33   Butler W 77-71 77%    
  Mar 09, 2019 52   @ Seton Hall W 80-73 63%    
Projected Record 23.4 - 7.6 12.8 - 5.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.7 8.4 11.3 9.8 6.7 2.5 44.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 4.9 6.3 4.6 1.7 0.2 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 4.0 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 3.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.6 5.7 7.6 9.2 10.9 12.6 13.3 13.0 9.9 6.7 2.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
17-1 100.0% 6.7    6.6 0.0
16-2 98.4% 9.8    9.1 0.7
15-3 86.6% 11.3    8.8 2.4 0.0
14-4 62.9% 8.4    5.1 2.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 37.3% 4.7    1.7 2.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 11.6% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.8% 44.8 34.1 8.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.5% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.7% 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 1.3 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.9% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 1.6 5.2 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.0% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 2.2 4.2 4.8 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.3% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 3.0 1.7 3.9 3.6 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.6% 99.8% 27.5% 72.3% 4.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.9% 98.8% 18.9% 79.9% 5.4 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
11-7 9.2% 93.8% 15.1% 78.6% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.6 92.6%
10-8 7.6% 88.9% 16.5% 72.4% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 86.7%
9-9 5.7% 74.2% 11.0% 63.3% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 71.1%
8-10 3.6% 42.8% 9.2% 33.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 37.1%
7-11 2.2% 25.1% 8.1% 17.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 18.5%
6-12 1.4% 9.0% 4.6% 4.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.6%
5-13 0.8% 2.4% 2.2% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1%
4-14 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 90.7% 28.0% 62.6% 4.2 18.8 16.4 11.7 9.6 8.1 5.5 5.5 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 87.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 82.8 17.2