Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#88
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.7#335
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#65
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 23.0% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.0% 10.7% 2.3%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 12.1
.500 or above 77.6% 79.8% 52.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 79.9% 60.9%
Conference Champion 17.8% 18.7% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.4% 5.1%
First Four3.5% 3.7% 1.3%
First Round20.0% 21.1% 7.6%
Second Round8.0% 8.5% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 92.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 1.80.2 - 1.8
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.50.8 - 3.3
Quad 22.4 - 3.53.1 - 6.8
Quad 36.4 - 4.09.6 - 10.8
Quad 48.4 - 1.317.9 - 12.1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 281   Cleveland St. W 74-62 92%    
  Nov 09, 2018 276   Dartmouth W 74-62 92%    
  Nov 15, 2018 81   Wichita St. L 71-72 48%    
  Nov 16, 2018 27   Purdue L 66-73 27%    
  Nov 18, 2018 70   Northeastern L 68-70 41%    
  Nov 24, 2018 70   Northeastern L 68-70 52%    
  Nov 27, 2018 301   Charlotte W 80-67 93%    
  Dec 01, 2018 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 78-71 65%    
  Dec 04, 2018 194   Winthrop W 77-70 81%    
  Dec 15, 2018 72   Temple L 68-70 44%    
  Dec 17, 2018 115   @ Wake Forest W 72-70 47%    
  Dec 29, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 69-81 9%    
  Jan 05, 2019 182   Duquesne W 71-65 79%    
  Jan 09, 2019 129   @ George Mason W 72-69 49%    
  Jan 12, 2019 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 73-70 69%    
  Jan 15, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-70 44%    
  Jan 19, 2019 130   Richmond W 72-69 69%    
  Jan 23, 2019 208   George Washington W 71-63 82%    
  Jan 26, 2019 71   @ Saint Louis L 64-66 34%    
  Feb 01, 2019 119   @ St. Bonaventure W 71-69 48%    
  Feb 06, 2019 103   Rhode Island W 69-68 64%    
  Feb 09, 2019 154   @ Massachusetts W 72-67 56%    
  Feb 12, 2019 267   @ Fordham W 70-59 76%    
  Feb 15, 2019 106   Saint Joseph's W 71-70 65%    
  Feb 19, 2019 107   Dayton W 70-68 65%    
  Feb 22, 2019 103   @ Rhode Island W 69-68 44%    
  Feb 27, 2019 166   @ La Salle W 74-68 58%    
  Mar 02, 2019 267   Fordham W 70-59 88%    
  Mar 06, 2019 119   St. Bonaventure W 71-69 66%    
  Mar 09, 2019 130   @ Richmond W 72-69 50%    
Projected Record 17.9 - 12.1 11.0 - 7.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.3 4.9 4.0 2.3 0.5 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.3 3.8 0.8 0.1 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.2 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 3.7 1.4 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.9 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.9 5.6 7.5 8.9 11.0 12.3 11.9 11.1 9.3 6.8 4.3 2.3 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.2% 2.3    2.1 0.2
16-2 92.2% 4.0    3.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 71.6% 4.9    3.1 1.6 0.1
14-4 46.2% 4.3    1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.4% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.2 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 91.3% 47.7% 43.6% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.4%
17-1 2.3% 89.1% 42.5% 46.7% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 81.1%
16-2 4.3% 80.2% 39.4% 40.8% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.8 67.3%
15-3 6.8% 63.2% 29.3% 33.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 2.5 48.0%
14-4 9.3% 43.2% 25.5% 17.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 23.8%
13-5 11.1% 25.2% 15.8% 9.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 11.2%
12-6 11.9% 14.8% 11.2% 3.6% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 10.2 4.1%
11-7 12.3% 11.0% 9.6% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 1.5%
10-8 11.0% 7.0% 6.7% 0.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.3%
9-9 8.9% 3.6% 3.4% 0.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 8.5 0.2%
8-10 7.5% 4.2% 4.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.2
7-11 5.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5
6-12 3.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.8% 13.1% 8.7% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.3 4.2 4.5 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 78.2 10.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 1.7 48.3 50.0