Preseason Rankings
Temple
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#72
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#214
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#78
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 3.5% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 3.5% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 3.5% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 33.1% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.0% 25.9% 9.1%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.7
.500 or above 80.4% 84.3% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 78.2% 62.5%
Conference Champion 12.6% 13.8% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 2.8%
First Four5.5% 6.1% 2.9%
First Round27.3% 30.1% 12.7%
Second Round13.6% 15.3% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.9% 0.6%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 2.90.7 - 2.9
Quad 1b1.3 - 2.21.9 - 5.1
Quad 23.6 - 3.25.5 - 8.3
Quad 36.5 - 2.512.1 - 10.8
Quad 47.3 - 0.819.4 - 11.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 166   La Salle W 76-69 84%    
  Nov 09, 2018 336   Detroit Mercy W 87-68 98%    
  Nov 13, 2018 80   Georgia W 66-65 64%    
  Nov 16, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland W 78-63 95%    
  Nov 19, 2018 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 76-71 66%    
  Nov 20, 2018 198   California W 75-66 79%    
  Nov 27, 2018 51   @ Missouri L 68-70 32%    
  Dec 01, 2018 106   @ Saint Joseph's W 74-71 51%    
  Dec 05, 2018 8   @ Villanova L 69-79 13%    
  Dec 12, 2018 154   Massachusetts W 75-68 80%    
  Dec 15, 2018 88   Davidson W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 22, 2018 280   @ Drexel W 80-67 81%    
  Jan 02, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 64-66 34%    
  Jan 06, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. W 74-73 44%    
  Jan 09, 2019 37   Houston L 70-74 48%    
  Jan 12, 2019 250   South Florida W 74-62 90%    
  Jan 16, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 79-65 82%    
  Jan 19, 2019 125   Penn W 73-69 74%    
  Jan 24, 2019 101   Memphis W 72-69 70%    
  Jan 27, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 64-68 48%    
  Jan 31, 2019 37   @ Houston L 70-74 30%    
  Feb 02, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 78-69 69%    
  Feb 06, 2019 96   Connecticut W 72-70 66%    
  Feb 09, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 73-70 48%    
  Feb 13, 2019 56   SMU L 67-69 54%    
  Feb 16, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 74-62 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 98   Tulsa W 73-70 68%    
  Feb 26, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 72-69 50%    
  Mar 03, 2019 195   Tulane W 78-69 84%    
  Mar 07, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 72-70 48%    
  Mar 09, 2019 55   Central Florida L 64-66 54%    
Projected Record 19.4 - 11.6 10.6 - 7.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 12.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.8 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.2 0.8 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.8 2.8 0.8 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 4.5 6.4 8.3 10.5 12.0 11.9 12.4 10.7 7.5 5.6 3.3 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.9% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 94.7% 3.1    2.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 68.0% 3.8    2.2 1.4 0.2
14-4 37.3% 2.8    1.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 9.4% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.4 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 3.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 3.3% 96.4% 27.3% 69.0% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.0%
15-3 5.6% 90.4% 23.4% 67.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 87.5%
14-4 7.5% 74.3% 16.3% 58.0% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 69.3%
13-5 10.7% 56.1% 13.3% 42.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.7 49.3%
12-6 12.4% 35.6% 10.1% 25.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 28.4%
11-7 11.9% 16.5% 6.6% 9.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9 10.6%
10-8 12.0% 8.9% 5.0% 3.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 4.1%
9-9 10.5% 5.9% 5.1% 0.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.9 0.8%
8-10 8.3% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0%
7-11 6.4% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3
6-12 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.9% 9.0% 21.0% 8.7 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.5 4.1 5.5 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 70.1 23.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 22.2 77.8