Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace53.2#353
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.0% 7.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 26.7% 26.8% 8.7%
Top 2 Seed 46.4% 70.8% 31.6%
Top 4 Seed 70.6% 70.8% 31.6%
Top 6 Seed 83.1% 70.8% 31.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 94.3% 76.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.9% 93.0% 73.8%
Average Seed 3.3 3.3 5.9
.500 or above 99.0% 99.1% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 92.8% 66.3%
Conference Champion 25.7% 25.8% 9.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 5.5%
First Round93.9% 94.0% 76.4%
Second Round81.7% 81.8% 58.7%
Sweet Sixteen58.2% 58.3% 29.0%
Elite Eight37.3% 37.4% 9.3%
Final Four22.7% 22.8% 3.4%
Championship Game13.3% 13.3% 2.6%
National Champion7.4% 7.5% 2.5%

Next Game: Towson (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3.9 - 4.03.9 - 4.0
Quad 1b3.2 - 1.27.1 - 5.2
Quad 24.6 - 0.911.7 - 6.0
Quad 35.5 - 0.417.2 - 6.4
Quad 46.4 - 0.123.5 - 6.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 237   Towson W 71-48 99%    
  Nov 11, 2018 208   George Washington W 70-48 99%    
  Nov 16, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 75-42 99.9%   
  Nov 21, 2018 157   Middle Tennessee W 67-49 95%    
  Nov 22, 2018 107   Dayton W 68-53 91%    
  Nov 23, 2018 22   Wisconsin W 61-55 70%    
  Nov 28, 2018 32   @ Maryland W 64-57 65%    
  Dec 03, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 77-46 99.8%   
  Dec 09, 2018 127   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-55 95%    
  Dec 19, 2018 61   @ South Carolina W 65-55 72%    
  Dec 22, 2018 164   William & Mary W 75-56 97%    
  Dec 31, 2018 99   Marshall W 75-61 93%    
  Jan 05, 2019 15   Florida St. W 68-63 74%    
  Jan 09, 2019 78   @ Boston College W 69-57 78%    
  Jan 12, 2019 18   @ Clemson W 62-57 58%    
  Jan 15, 2019 20   Virginia Tech W 66-61 76%    
  Jan 19, 2019 4   @ Duke W 66-65 42%    
  Jan 22, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 70-55 94%    
  Jan 26, 2019 49   @ Notre Dame W 64-55 69%    
  Jan 29, 2019 38   @ North Carolina St. W 70-62 66%    
  Feb 02, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 64-58 77%    
  Feb 09, 2019 4   Duke W 66-65 61%    
  Feb 11, 2019 6   @ North Carolina W 66-65 43%    
  Feb 16, 2019 49   Notre Dame W 64-55 84%    
  Feb 18, 2019 20   @ Virginia Tech W 66-61 58%    
  Feb 23, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 68-58 70%    
  Feb 27, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 65-50 93%    
  Mar 02, 2019 167   Pittsburgh W 68-49 96%    
  Mar 04, 2019 12   @ Syracuse W 59-55 53%    
  Mar 09, 2019 54   Louisville W 68-58 85%    
Projected Record 23.5 - 6.5 12.8 - 5.2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.9 7.9 5.3 1.8 25.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 7.0 5.4 1.5 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.1 3.1 0.3 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.1 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.2 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.5 5.3 7.2 10.2 12.4 14.2 13.9 12.9 9.4 5.4 1.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 98.9% 5.3    4.9 0.4
16-2 84.1% 7.9    5.5 2.3 0.1
15-3 53.3% 6.9    3.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 0.0
14-4 22.6% 3.1    0.7 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.7% 25.7 16.0 7.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.4% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.1 4.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.4% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 1.3 6.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.9% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 1.5 7.1 4.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.9% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 2.1 4.2 5.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.2% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.8 1.7 4.5 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.4% 99.9% 12.6% 87.3% 3.8 0.5 1.6 3.3 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 10.2% 99.1% 10.4% 88.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-8 7.2% 97.2% 9.2% 88.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.0%
9-9 5.3% 84.9% 5.6% 79.3% 7.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 84.0%
8-10 3.5% 57.0% 2.8% 54.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 55.7%
7-11 1.9% 28.5% 6.0% 22.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 24.0%
6-12 1.2% 6.6% 1.5% 5.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.2%
5-13 0.6% 7.6% 7.5% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.2% 17.8% 76.3% 3.3 26.7 19.8 13.8 10.4 7.5 5.1 3.3 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 92.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 1.1 95.0 5.0