Preseason Rankings
Maryland
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#32
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.4% 19.2% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 18.7% 19.2% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 32.2% 19.2% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.8% 59.9% 27.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.5% 56.6% 25.4%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.9
.500 or above 80.5% 81.7% 46.5%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 60.1% 32.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 9.3% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 4.1% 10.8%
First Four3.0% 3.0% 4.1%
First Round57.3% 58.4% 25.5%
Second Round36.9% 37.8% 13.1%
Sweet Sixteen18.0% 18.5% 5.2%
Elite Eight8.0% 8.2% 2.5%
Final Four3.4% 3.5% 1.2%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2.1 - 5.42.1 - 5.4
Quad 1b2.4 - 2.54.4 - 7.9
Quad 24.6 - 2.59.1 - 10.4
Quad 34.7 - 1.113.8 - 11.4
Quad 45.6 - 0.219.4 - 11.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 239   Delaware W 77-61 96%    
  Nov 09, 2018 260   @ Navy W 75-58 90%    
  Nov 12, 2018 347   N.C. A&T W 85-59 99.6%   
  Nov 16, 2018 156   Hofstra W 81-70 89%    
  Nov 18, 2018 331   Mount St. Mary's W 78-55 99%    
  Nov 23, 2018 99   Marshall W 83-76 80%    
  Nov 28, 2018 2   Virginia L 57-64 35%    
  Dec 01, 2018 57   Penn St. W 71-69 68%    
  Dec 06, 2018 27   @ Purdue L 71-72 36%    
  Dec 08, 2018 67   Loyola Chicago W 69-66 62%    
  Dec 11, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland W 80-61 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 52   Seton Hall W 74-72 66%    
  Dec 29, 2018 149   Radford W 71-61 87%    
  Jan 02, 2019 35   Nebraska W 72-71 61%    
  Jan 05, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 71-62 69%    
  Jan 08, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 76-73 50%    
  Jan 11, 2019 25   Indiana L 71-72 55%    
  Jan 14, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 65-67 55%    
  Jan 18, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. W 70-69 42%    
  Jan 21, 2019 10   @ Michigan St. L 69-73 27%    
  Jan 26, 2019 76   Illinois W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 29, 2019 62   Northwestern W 69-66 69%    
  Feb 01, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin L 65-67 35%    
  Feb 06, 2019 35   @ Nebraska W 72-71 40%    
  Feb 12, 2019 27   Purdue L 71-72 56%    
  Feb 16, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 66-68 33%    
  Feb 19, 2019 34   @ Iowa W 78-77 41%    
  Feb 23, 2019 40   Ohio St. W 70-69 62%    
  Feb 27, 2019 57   @ Penn St. W 71-69 48%    
  Mar 03, 2019 19   Michigan L 66-68 53%    
  Mar 08, 2019 68   Minnesota W 76-73 70%    
Projected Record 19.4 - 11.6 10.4 - 9.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.7 2.7 0.7 0.0 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.5 3.1 0.6 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.0 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 4.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.4 4.1 5.5 7.7 8.6 10.1 10.2 10.4 9.7 8.4 7.0 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 95.7% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 90.2% 2.1    1.7 0.3 0.0
16-4 66.5% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.1
15-5 32.4% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 11.9% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.7 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.9% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.6 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.7% 99.8% 14.3% 85.5% 3.4 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 7.0% 99.6% 12.0% 87.6% 4.5 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 8.4% 98.8% 10.2% 88.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
12-8 9.7% 94.6% 7.3% 87.4% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 94.2%
11-9 10.4% 85.0% 7.5% 77.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 83.8%
10-10 10.2% 68.4% 6.0% 62.4% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2 66.3%
9-11 10.1% 34.2% 3.3% 30.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.6 32.0%
8-12 8.6% 12.7% 3.9% 8.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 9.2%
7-13 7.7% 3.9% 2.7% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 1.2%
6-14 5.5% 2.3% 2.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 4.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
4-16 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
3-17 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 58.8% 7.4% 51.4% 6.2 2.7 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.2 5.0 4.4 3.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 41.2 55.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1