Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.2#92
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.1#50
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#54
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 14.2% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 8.5% 1.8%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.9
.500 or above 76.3% 77.9% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.8% 73.8% 58.2%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.9% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 4.4%
First Four3.6% 3.8% 0.9%
First Round11.9% 12.4% 4.6%
Second Round4.4% 4.5% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 1.90.3 - 1.9
Quad 1b0.7 - 1.70.9 - 3.6
Quad 22.4 - 3.13.3 - 6.7
Quad 35.5 - 3.38.9 - 10.0
Quad 48.7 - 1.417.6 - 11.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 342   @ Cal St. Northridge W 83-64 94%    
  Nov 13, 2018 133   Iona W 84-81 70%    
  Nov 17, 2018 93   New Mexico St. W 76-75 62%    
  Nov 24, 2018 249   UTEP W 80-70 89%    
  Dec 01, 2018 117   @ Bradley W 74-72 46%    
  Dec 04, 2018 93   @ New Mexico St. W 76-75 40%    
  Dec 07, 2018 59   St. Mary's L 72-76 38%    
  Dec 11, 2018 84   Colorado L 76-77 58%    
  Dec 16, 2018 303   Central Arkansas W 90-77 92%    
  Dec 18, 2018 132   North Texas W 78-75 68%    
  Dec 22, 2018 125   Penn W 78-76 68%    
  Jan 02, 2019 212   @ Air Force W 79-71 67%    
  Jan 05, 2019 7   Nevada L 77-89 24%    
  Jan 08, 2019 139   UNLV W 85-82 70%    
  Jan 12, 2019 180   @ Colorado St. W 82-76 60%    
  Jan 15, 2019 45   @ San Diego St. L 75-80 26%    
  Jan 19, 2019 173   Wyoming W 86-80 77%    
  Jan 22, 2019 139   @ UNLV W 85-82 50%    
  Jan 26, 2019 144   Utah St. W 79-75 73%    
  Feb 02, 2019 91   @ Fresno St. L 75-76 40%    
  Feb 05, 2019 45   San Diego St. L 75-80 44%    
  Feb 09, 2019 7   @ Nevada L 77-89 12%    
  Feb 13, 2019 321   San Jose St. W 81-66 93%    
  Feb 16, 2019 91   Fresno St. L 75-76 60%    
  Feb 20, 2019 144   @ Utah St. W 79-75 52%    
  Feb 26, 2019 321   @ San Jose St. W 81-66 85%    
  Mar 02, 2019 180   Colorado St. W 82-76 78%    
  Mar 06, 2019 95   Boise St. W 77-76 60%    
  Mar 09, 2019 173   @ Wyoming W 86-80 60%    
Projected Record 17.6 - 11.4 10.3 - 7.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.2 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 4.3 4.7 2.5 0.5 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 4.2 6.4 4.5 1.1 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.2 5.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 4.1 4.8 1.5 0.1 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.7 1.1 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.5 0.9 0.0 6.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.7 5.1 6.7 9.9 11.1 12.8 13.6 11.6 9.7 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 76.2% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 40.6% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 17.0% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 99.3% 22.0% 77.3% 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
17-1 0.8% 90.6% 33.7% 56.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.9%
16-2 2.0% 81.7% 25.6% 56.1% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 75.4%
15-3 4.2% 64.9% 16.7% 48.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 57.9%
14-4 7.0% 41.6% 14.6% 27.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 31.6%
13-5 9.7% 23.6% 9.5% 14.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 7.4 15.5%
12-6 11.6% 11.6% 8.0% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.2 4.0%
11-7 13.6% 7.3% 6.2% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 12.6 1.2%
10-8 12.8% 3.6% 3.1% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.6%
9-9 11.1% 2.3% 2.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
8-10 9.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-11 6.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
6-12 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
5-13 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.7% 6.1% 7.6% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.6 3.6 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 86.3 8.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 25.4 24.6 48.2 0.9 0.9