Preseason Rankings
Penn
Ivy League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#136
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 28.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 3.2% 1.1%
Average Seed 12.9 12.3 13.4
.500 or above 61.2% 76.7% 51.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 84.4% 74.0%
Conference Champion 21.9% 28.1% 17.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.2% 4.9%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 2.0%
First Round21.0% 27.6% 16.8%
Second Round4.6% 7.1% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 2.1% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 1.40.1 - 1.4
Quad 1b0.4 - 1.90.5 - 3.3
Quad 21.7 - 3.92.2 - 7.1
Quad 35.1 - 4.67.3 - 11.7
Quad 48.4 - 1.615.7 - 13.3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 129   @ George Mason W 73-72 39%    
  Nov 09, 2018 323   Rice W 77-64 92%    
  Nov 13, 2018 293   Lafayette W 78-68 88%    
  Nov 16, 2018 116   Northern Iowa L 64-65 47%    
  Nov 18, 2018 14   Kansas St. L 62-74 15%    
  Nov 19, 2018 82   Oregon St. L 68-71 39%    
  Nov 27, 2018 351   @ Delaware St. W 78-58 93%    
  Dec 04, 2018 23   Miami (FL) L 66-76 27%    
  Dec 08, 2018 166   @ La Salle W 74-71 51%    
  Dec 11, 2018 8   Villanova L 67-81 17%    
  Dec 22, 2018 92   @ New Mexico L 76-78 32%    
  Dec 29, 2018 126   @ Toledo W 75-74 40%    
  Dec 31, 2018 183   Monmouth W 74-70 72%    
  Jan 05, 2019 145   @ Princeton W 69-68 44%    
  Jan 12, 2019 145   Princeton W 69-68 64%    
  Jan 19, 2019 72   @ Temple L 69-73 26%    
  Jan 26, 2019 106   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-73 35%    
  Feb 01, 2019 248   @ Cornell W 78-70 65%    
  Feb 02, 2019 229   @ Columbia W 79-72 62%    
  Feb 08, 2019 207   @ Brown W 79-73 59%    
  Feb 09, 2019 122   @ Yale L 72-73 39%    
  Feb 15, 2019 276   Dartmouth W 74-65 84%    
  Feb 16, 2019 77   Harvard L 66-70 48%    
  Feb 22, 2019 229   Columbia W 79-72 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 248   Cornell W 78-70 81%    
  Mar 01, 2019 77   @ Harvard L 66-70 29%    
  Mar 02, 2019 276   @ Dartmouth W 74-65 68%    
  Mar 08, 2019 122   Yale L 72-73 58%    
  Mar 09, 2019 207   Brown W 79-73 77%    
Projected Record 15.7 - 13.3 8.6 - 5.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.4 6.8 3.8 1.3 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 5.6 8.2 4.9 0.9 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 7.5 7.1 2.6 0.2 19.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.8 5.0 1.1 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.8 9.3 11.0 14.6 14.3 13.9 11.5 7.7 3.8 1.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
13-1 100.0% 3.8    3.6 0.2
12-2 87.8% 6.8    4.9 1.9 0.0
11-3 55.6% 6.4    3.3 2.7 0.5 0.0
10-4 22.1% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.9 0.1
9-5 3.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 13.8 6.3 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.3% 77.8% 67.9% 9.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 30.8%
13-1 3.8% 68.4% 59.2% 9.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 22.5%
12-2 7.7% 52.0% 44.7% 7.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.7 13.2%
11-3 11.5% 34.8% 32.1% 2.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.5 4.0%
10-4 13.9% 25.4% 24.5% 0.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 10.3 1.2%
9-5 14.3% 17.7% 17.6% 0.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.3 11.8 0.1%
8-6 14.6% 15.7% 15.7% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 12.3
7-7 11.0% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 9.8
6-8 9.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 8.8
5-9 5.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.6
4-10 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
3-11 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-12 0.9% 0.9
1-13 0.3% 0.3
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.0% 20.5% 1.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.1 78.0 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 3.4 93.1 3.4