IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Nevada
Mountain West
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.8	#7
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	72.3	#94
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+12.1	#1

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.6	#44

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.5%	2.8%	0.6%
#1 Seed	13.2%	14.6%	4.2%
Top 2 Seed	25.8%	48.1%	24.4%
Top 4 Seed	44.9%	48.1%	24.4%
Top 6 Seed	57.5%	48.1%	24.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid	89.1%	91.2%	76.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	75.1%	78.9%	56.8%
Average Seed	5.3	5.1	7.0

.500 or above	99.7%	99.8%	98.9%
.500 or above in Conference	99.5%	99.6%	98.7%
Conference Champion	72.2%	74.7%	56.5%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	3.9%	3.5%	6.1%
First Round	87.4%	89.6%	73.5%
Second Round	67.7%	70.6%	49.9%
Sweet Sixteen	42.4%	45.1%	25.4%
Elite Eight	25.5%	27.4%	13.7%
Final Four	14.6%	15.7%	7.7%
Championship Game	7.9%	8.5%	4.3%
National Champion	4.2%	4.6%	1.4%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.5 - 0.6	0.5 - 0.6
Quad 1b	1.6 - 0.9	2.1 - 1.5
Quad 2	5.4 - 1.5	7.5 - 3.0
Quad 3	10.3 - 1.1	17.8 - 4.2
Quad 4	8.8 - 0.2	26.6 - 4.4

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2018	63	BYU	W	80-72	86%
Nov 09, 2018	168	Pacific	W	85-68	97%
Nov 16, 2018	264	Arkansas Little Rock	W	83-60	99%
Nov 19, 2018	288	California Baptist	W	89-65	99%
Nov 22, 2018	98	Tulsa	W	83-71	86%
Nov 23, 2018	154	Massachusetts	W	85-69	92%
Nov 27, 2018	67	@ Loyola Chicago	W	78-69	69%
Dec 01, 2018	58	@ USC	W	82-74	66%
Dec 07, 2018	43	Arizona St.	W	87-80	72%
Dec 09, 2018	114	Grand Canyon	W	82-69	87%
Dec 15, 2018	79	South Dakota St.	W	87-77	88%
Dec 22, 2018	184	Akron	W	86-68	96%
Dec 29, 2018	87	@ Utah	W	79-68	76%
Jan 02, 2019	144	Utah St.	W	84-69	94%
Jan 05, 2019	92	@ New Mexico	W	89-77	76%
Jan 09, 2019	321	San Jose St.	W	87-60	99%
Jan 12, 2019	91	@ Fresno St.	W	81-70	76%
Jan 15, 2019	95	@ Boise St.	W	83-71	77%
Jan 19, 2019	212	Air Force	W	85-65	97%
Jan 23, 2019	180	Colorado St.	W	88-70	96%
Jan 29, 2019	139	@ UNLV	W	90-75	83%
Feb 02, 2019	95	Boise St.	W	83-71	89%
Feb 06, 2019	180	@ Colorado St.	W	88-70	89%
Feb 09, 2019	92	New Mexico	W	89-77	88%
Feb 16, 2019	173	@ Wyoming	W	91-74	88%
Feb 20, 2019	45	@ San Diego St.	W	81-74	62%
Feb 23, 2019	91	Fresno St.	W	81-70	88%
Feb 27, 2019	139	UNLV	W	90-75	93%
Mar 02, 2019	144	@ Utah St.	W	84-69	84%
Mar 05, 2019	212	@ Air Force	W	85-65	92%
Mar 09, 2019	45	San Diego St.	W	81-74	79%
Projected Record						26.6 - 4.4	15.5 - 2.5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.7	4.1	11.2	18.5	21.6	16.0		72.2	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	1.0	3.5	5.7	4.6	1.6				16.4	2nd
3rd											0.1	0.6	2.0	2.4	1.1	0.1					6.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	0.9	1.0	0.3	0.0						2.7	4th
5th								0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0							1.3	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.0									0.6	6th
7th								0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											0.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0												0.0	9th
10th						0.0	0.0														0.0	10th
11th																						11th

Total					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.4	2.1	4.2	6.9	10.9	15.9	20.1	21.6	16.0			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	16.0		16.0
17-1	100.0%	21.6		20.9	0.7
16-2	92.0%	18.5		15.3	3.1	0.1
15-3	70.8%	11.2		7.1	3.8	0.4	0.0
14-4	38.1%	4.1		1.8	1.7	0.6	0.0
13-5	10.7%	0.7		0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
12-6	1.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	72.2%	72.2		61.3	9.5	1.3	0.2		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	16.0%		100.0%	78.8%	21.2%	1.8		8.1	5.0	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0								100.0%
17-1	21.6%		99.4%	70.6%	28.8%	3.0		4.4	5.8	4.1	3.6	1.7	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0					0.1		98.0%
16-2	20.1%		98.4%	60.2%	38.2%	5.1		0.7	1.7	2.8	4.4	2.9	2.2	1.7	1.2	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.0				0.3		96.0%
15-3	15.9%		92.7%	50.7%	42.1%	7.4		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	2.0	1.8	2.2	1.8	1.9	1.6	1.3	0.3	0.1				1.2		85.3%
14-4	10.9%		84.4%	39.8%	44.6%	9.1				0.0	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.6	2.0	2.1	0.5	0.1				1.7		74.1%
13-5	6.9%		69.2%	30.8%	38.4%	10.4					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.0			2.1		55.4%
12-6	4.2%		51.1%	27.3%	23.9%	11.0								0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.0		2.1		32.8%
11-7	2.1%		35.9%	21.1%	14.8%	11.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.3		18.7%
10-8	1.4%		17.9%	15.4%	2.4%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.1		2.9%
9-9	0.5%		6.7%	6.4%	0.3%	13.7											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.5		0.3%
8-10	0.3%		13.8%	13.8%		14.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
7-11	0.1%		11.2%	11.2%		12.1													0.0			0.0		0.1
6-12	0.1%		0.9%	0.9%		14.0															0.0			0.1
5-13	0.0%																							0.0
4-14	0.0%																							0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		89.1%	56.3%	32.8%	5.3		13.2	12.6	9.1	10.0	7.3	5.3	5.3	4.8	5.4	6.4	6.4	2.5	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	10.9		75.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	6.3%	100.0%	1.4	64.7	31.7	3.2	0.4