Preseason Rankings
Florida
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#16
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#240
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 3.3% 1.0%
#1 Seed 6.8% 11.5% 3.9%
Top 2 Seed 15.8% 49.1% 24.2%
Top 4 Seed 33.7% 49.1% 24.2%
Top 6 Seed 48.8% 49.1% 24.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.6% 87.1% 65.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.5% 85.2% 61.7%
Average Seed 5.2 4.5 5.8
.500 or above 85.5% 94.7% 79.8%
.500 or above in Conference 77.7% 85.6% 72.9%
Conference Champion 12.6% 17.6% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four2.3% 1.6% 2.8%
First Round72.5% 86.4% 64.0%
Second Round52.2% 66.3% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen29.3% 39.2% 23.2%
Elite Eight15.4% 22.0% 11.3%
Final Four7.7% 11.9% 5.2%
Championship Game3.7% 6.0% 2.2%
National Champion1.7% 3.0% 1.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 38.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3.0 - 5.73.0 - 5.7
Quad 1b2.7 - 2.15.7 - 7.8
Quad 24.8 - 2.010.6 - 9.8
Quad 35.3 - 0.915.8 - 10.7
Quad 44.4 - 0.120.2 - 10.8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 15   @ Florida St. L 76-77 38%    
  Nov 09, 2018 232   Charleston Southern W 78-60 98%    
  Nov 14, 2018 166   La Salle W 79-65 93%    
  Nov 21, 2018 53   Oklahoma W 82-77 66%    
  Nov 22, 2018 108   Stanford W 77-67 81%    
  Nov 23, 2018 33   Butler W 73-70 59%    
  Nov 27, 2018 213   North Florida W 90-73 96%    
  Dec 04, 2018 11   West Virginia L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 08, 2018 10   Michigan St. L 70-72 55%    
  Dec 18, 2018 272   Mercer W 78-58 97%    
  Dec 22, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 82-67 90%    
  Dec 29, 2018 33   Butler W 73-70 69%    
  Jan 05, 2019 61   South Carolina W 72-67 75%    
  Jan 09, 2019 94   @ Arkansas W 78-69 69%    
  Jan 12, 2019 9   Tennessee L 68-70 52%    
  Jan 15, 2019 21   @ Mississippi St. W 71-70 41%    
  Jan 19, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 69-61 66%    
  Jan 22, 2019 64   Texas A&M W 74-68 76%    
  Jan 26, 2019 28   @ TCU W 75-73 47%    
  Jan 30, 2019 118   Mississippi W 79-69 87%    
  Feb 02, 2019 3   Kentucky L 71-75 45%    
  Feb 05, 2019 13   @ Auburn L 76-77 37%    
  Feb 09, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 68-70 33%    
  Feb 13, 2019 83   Vanderbilt W 74-66 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 39   @ Alabama W 72-69 51%    
  Feb 20, 2019 46   @ LSU W 75-71 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 51   Missouri W 70-66 73%    
  Feb 27, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 74-66 65%    
  Mar 02, 2019 80   Georgia W 69-61 81%    
  Mar 06, 2019 46   LSU W 75-71 72%    
  Mar 09, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 71-75 27%    
Projected Record 20.2 - 10.8 10.9 - 7.1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.7 3.4 1.6 0.4 12.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 4.9 4.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.4 4.6 1.1 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 3.8 4.5 1.3 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 1.4 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.4 2.1 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.0 12.2 12.2 12.4 10.7 8.7 5.7 3.8 1.6 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 90.7% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 65.1% 3.7    1.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 30.8% 2.7    1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.9% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.6% 12.6 7.5 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.7% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 2.0 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.7% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.9 1.1 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.7% 99.9% 13.3% 86.6% 3.9 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.5 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 12.4% 98.3% 11.5% 86.8% 5.2 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.3 2.7 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
11-7 12.2% 93.8% 9.7% 84.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.4 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 93.2%
10-8 12.2% 80.4% 6.4% 74.0% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 79.0%
9-9 10.0% 58.7% 4.8% 53.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 56.6%
8-10 8.0% 30.8% 3.8% 27.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 28.0%
7-11 6.1% 12.0% 2.8% 9.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 9.5%
6-12 4.0% 3.8% 1.5% 2.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 2.3%
5-13 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0%
4-14 1.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.4% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.6% 10.6% 63.0% 5.2 6.8 9.0 9.9 8.0 8.0 7.1 6.8 6.0 4.6 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 26.4 70.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.8 17.2