Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#45
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#163
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 3.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.8% 3.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 7.2% 3.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.3% 37.5% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.5% 24.6% 10.3%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 11.4
.500 or above 95.6% 95.8% 80.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 92.7% 85.0%
Conference Champion 20.3% 20.5% 6.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four6.9% 7.0% 0.2%
First Round34.5% 34.6% 16.3%
Second Round18.8% 18.9% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 8.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.6% 0.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.6 - 2.40.6 - 2.4
Quad 1b1.0 - 1.31.6 - 3.7
Quad 23.0 - 2.24.6 - 5.9
Quad 36.5 - 2.011.1 - 8.0
Quad 410.3 - 0.621.4 - 8.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-59 99%    
  Nov 14, 2018 243   Texas Southern W 84-69 94%    
  Nov 19, 2018 4   Duke L 73-81 23%    
  Nov 20, 2018 44   Xavier L 75-76 50%    
  Nov 21, 2018 30   Iowa St. L 73-75 44%    
  Nov 27, 2018 335   Jackson St. W 76-54 98%    
  Dec 01, 2018 75   @ Illinois St. W 75-72 52%    
  Dec 05, 2018 121   San Diego W 73-66 80%    
  Dec 08, 2018 198   @ California W 77-65 78%    
  Dec 22, 2018 63   BYU W 71-69 66%    
  Dec 29, 2018 207   Brown W 83-70 91%    
  Jan 01, 2019 342   Cal St. Northridge W 80-56 99%    
  Jan 05, 2019 95   @ Boise St. W 74-69 56%    
  Jan 08, 2019 173   Wyoming W 82-71 87%    
  Jan 12, 2019 212   @ Air Force W 76-63 80%    
  Jan 15, 2019 92   New Mexico W 80-75 74%    
  Jan 22, 2019 91   @ Fresno St. W 72-67 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 139   UNLV W 81-73 82%    
  Jan 30, 2019 212   Air Force W 76-63 91%    
  Feb 02, 2019 321   @ San Jose St. W 78-58 91%    
  Feb 05, 2019 92   @ New Mexico W 80-75 56%    
  Feb 09, 2019 144   Utah St. W 76-67 83%    
  Feb 12, 2019 180   @ Colorado St. W 79-68 74%    
  Feb 16, 2019 95   Boise St. W 74-69 74%    
  Feb 20, 2019 7   Nevada L 74-81 38%    
  Feb 23, 2019 139   @ UNLV W 81-73 65%    
  Feb 26, 2019 144   @ Utah St. W 76-67 68%    
  Mar 02, 2019 321   San Jose St. W 78-58 97%    
  Mar 06, 2019 91   Fresno St. W 72-67 73%    
  Mar 09, 2019 7   @ Nevada L 74-81 21%    
Projected Record 21.4 - 8.6 12.7 - 5.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 6.8 4.1 1.5 20.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.9 10.2 7.2 2.3 31.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.9 5.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 18.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 2.3 3.2 5.5 8.0 10.2 13.1 14.5 14.2 12.4 9.1 4.1 1.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 4.1    3.6 0.5
16-2 75.1% 6.8    4.6 2.1 0.1
15-3 41.5% 5.2    2.7 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 16.2% 2.3    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.3% 20.3 13.0 6.1 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 99.1% 58.0% 41.2% 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
17-1 4.1% 97.6% 50.2% 47.4% 5.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.1%
16-2 9.1% 88.2% 34.5% 53.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 81.9%
15-3 12.4% 68.6% 23.8% 44.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 58.7%
14-4 14.2% 50.1% 19.7% 30.4% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.1 37.8%
13-5 14.5% 28.5% 13.2% 15.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.3 17.6%
12-6 13.1% 17.3% 11.6% 5.7% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.9 6.5%
11-7 10.2% 8.7% 8.0% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.3 0.8%
10-8 8.0% 5.0% 4.9% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.0%
9-9 5.5% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.1 0.0%
8-10 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
7-11 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 0.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.3% 17.0% 20.3% 9.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.5 5.1 7.5 5.6 2.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 62.7 24.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 53.8 33.9 11.7 0.6