Preseason Rankings
Duke
Atlantic Coast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#4
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.2#73
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.0% 13.0% 5.0%
#1 Seed 29.1% 38.0% 20.0%
Top 2 Seed 48.7% 80.8% 60.4%
Top 4 Seed 70.7% 80.8% 60.4%
Top 6 Seed 82.9% 80.8% 60.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.9% 97.0% 88.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 96.3% 86.9%
Average Seed 3.2 2.7 3.7
.500 or above 96.4% 98.8% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 94.2% 88.4%
Conference Champion 24.1% 29.6% 18.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.8% 0.3% 1.3%
First Round92.6% 97.0% 88.2%
Second Round80.1% 87.0% 73.0%
Sweet Sixteen56.3% 64.1% 48.2%
Elite Eight35.9% 43.0% 28.6%
Final Four20.9% 26.1% 15.5%
Championship Game12.1% 15.8% 8.3%
National Champion6.5% 8.8% 4.1%

Next Game: Kentucky (Neutral) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4.5 - 5.14.5 - 5.1
Quad 1b2.9 - 1.27.4 - 6.3
Quad 24.9 - 1.212.2 - 7.5
Quad 36.1 - 0.518.4 - 8.0
Quad 44.6 - 0.123.0 - 8.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 3   Kentucky L 79-80 51%    
  Nov 11, 2018 216   Army W 90-68 99%    
  Nov 14, 2018 135   Eastern Michigan W 79-63 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 45   San Diego St. W 81-73 77%    
  Nov 20, 2018 13   Auburn W 85-81 63%    
  Nov 21, 2018 5   Gonzaga W 80-79 50%    
  Nov 27, 2018 25   Indiana W 80-74 78%    
  Dec 01, 2018 337   Stetson W 94-63 99.8%   
  Dec 05, 2018 193   Hartford W 86-66 98%    
  Dec 08, 2018 122   Yale W 86-71 94%    
  Dec 18, 2018 145   Princeton W 82-65 95%    
  Dec 20, 2018 29   Texas Tech W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 05, 2019 18   Clemson W 76-71 74%    
  Jan 08, 2019 115   @ Wake Forest W 86-71 84%    
  Jan 12, 2019 15   @ Florida St. W 85-81 55%    
  Jan 14, 2019 12   Syracuse W 72-69 70%    
  Jan 19, 2019 2   Virginia L 65-66 58%    
  Jan 22, 2019 167   @ Pittsburgh W 81-63 90%    
  Jan 26, 2019 113   Georgia Tech W 79-64 93%    
  Jan 28, 2019 49   @ Notre Dame W 79-70 68%    
  Feb 02, 2019 31   St. John's W 83-76 79%    
  Feb 05, 2019 78   Boston College W 86-74 89%    
  Feb 09, 2019 2   @ Virginia L 65-66 39%    
  Feb 12, 2019 54   @ Louisville W 84-75 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 38   North Carolina St. W 88-80 81%    
  Feb 20, 2019 6   North Carolina W 83-82 61%    
  Feb 23, 2019 12   @ Syracuse W 72-69 51%    
  Feb 26, 2019 20   @ Virginia Tech W 83-78 56%    
  Mar 02, 2019 23   Miami (FL) W 79-74 75%    
  Mar 05, 2019 115   Wake Forest W 86-71 93%    
  Mar 09, 2019 6   @ North Carolina W 83-82 41%    
Projected Record 23.0 - 8.0 12.5 - 5.5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 6.8 7.4 4.3 1.7 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.9 4.1 0.8 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 5.2 2.9 0.2 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.4 3.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.0 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.3 3.9 6.2 8.8 11.2 12.7 13.5 13.5 11.3 8.2 4.3 1.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-1 100.0% 4.3    4.1 0.3 0.0
16-2 90.2% 7.4    5.5 1.8 0.1
15-3 60.1% 6.8    3.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 23.5% 3.2    0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 4.5% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 15.5 6.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.7% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.1 1.5 0.2 100.0%
17-1 4.3% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.1 4.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.2% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.2 6.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.3% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.4 7.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.5% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.8 5.8 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.5 2.7 4.8 3.6 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.7% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 3.3 0.9 2.9 3.8 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 11.2% 99.2% 11.2% 88.0% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
10-8 8.8% 95.0% 9.3% 85.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 94.5%
9-9 6.2% 85.1% 5.7% 79.4% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 84.2%
8-10 3.9% 59.7% 3.6% 56.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 58.1%
7-11 2.3% 26.1% 3.8% 22.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 23.2%
6-12 1.2% 6.7% 1.4% 5.3% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 5.3%
5-13 0.8% 3.5% 1.9% 1.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 45.6% 45.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 92.9% 16.8% 76.2% 3.2 29.1 19.6 12.5 9.5 6.7 5.5 3.3 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 91.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.2 8.8