IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.1	#198
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.2	#117
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.9	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#142

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	1.2%	0.2%
Average Seed	11.7	11.0	12.7

.500 or above	11.2%	20.0%	7.2%
.500 or above in Conference	7.2%	9.7%	6.1%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	44.1%	36.7%	47.5%

First Four	0.4%	0.6%	0.3%
First Round	0.7%	1.4%	0.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Neutral) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 2.8	0.1 - 2.8
Quad 1b	0.3 - 3.8	0.4 - 6.6
Quad 2	1.4 - 6.7	1.8 - 13.3
Quad 3	3.0 - 5.4	4.8 - 18.7
Quad 4	4.7 - 1.8	9.5 - 20.5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2018	122	Yale	L	70-75	31%
Nov 13, 2018	240	Hampton	W	76-74	70%
Nov 19, 2018	31	St. John's	L	66-80	11%
Nov 20, 2018	72	Temple	L	66-75	21%
Nov 26, 2018	217	Santa Clara	W	68-67	64%
Dec 01, 2018	59	@ St. Mary's	L	63-74	11%
Dec 05, 2018	137	San Francisco	L	66-70	45%
Dec 08, 2018	45	San Diego St.	L	65-77	22%
Dec 15, 2018	317	Cal Poly	W	73-66	81%
Dec 19, 2018	91	@ Fresno St.	L	66-73	19%
Dec 21, 2018	321	San Jose St.	W	71-63	82%
Dec 29, 2018	244	Seattle	W	71-68	69%
Jan 03, 2019	58	@ USC	L	66-77	11%
Jan 05, 2019	50	@ UCLA	L	70-82	11%
Jan 09, 2019	43	Arizona St.	L	71-83	22%
Jan 12, 2019	66	Arizona	L	67-77	28%
Jan 17, 2019	191	@ Washington St.	L	73-74	39%
Jan 19, 2019	42	@ Washington	L	67-79	10%
Jan 24, 2019	84	Colorado	L	66-74	33%
Jan 26, 2019	87	Utah	L	64-72	34%
Feb 03, 2019	108	Stanford	L	69-75	40%
Feb 06, 2019	17	@ Oregon	L	63-79	6%
Feb 09, 2019	82	@ Oregon St.	L	65-73	19%
Feb 13, 2019	50	UCLA	L	70-82	23%
Feb 16, 2019	58	USC	L	66-77	25%
Feb 21, 2019	66	@ Arizona	L	67-77	13%
Feb 24, 2019	43	@ Arizona St.	L	71-83	11%
Feb 28, 2019	42	Washington	L	67-79	23%
Mar 02, 2019	191	Washington St.	L	73-74	57%
Mar 07, 2019	108	@ Stanford	L	69-75	24%
Projected Record						9.5 - 20.5	4.3 - 13.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Pac-12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0					0.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0							1.3	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	0.7	0.9	0.2	0.0								1.9	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	1.0	1.5	0.4	0.0									3.1	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	1.4	2.0	0.8	0.1										4.5	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.7	3.0	1.5	0.1	0.0										6.6	8th
9th				0.0	0.6	2.8	4.1	2.5	0.3	0.0											10.3	9th
10th			0.1	1.1	4.5	6.4	2.8	0.4	0.0												15.2	10th
11th		0.5	3.9	8.1	7.2	3.3	0.6	0.0													23.7	11th
12th	4.2	8.6	10.4	6.2	2.2	0.4	0.0	0.0													32.1	12th

Total	4.2	9.2	14.3	15.5	14.5	13.1	9.4	7.6	4.9	3.3	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0
15-3	74.8%	0.0		0.0
14-4	35.1%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
13-5	7.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0
12-6	0.3%	0.0			0.0		0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%														0.0
16-2	0.0%											0.0	0.0			0.0
15-3	0.1%		99.1%		99.1%	8.3							0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0		99.1%
14-4	0.1%		81.1%	16.2%	64.9%	8.9								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.0		77.4%
13-5	0.2%		54.9%	6.4%	48.5%	10.2								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		51.8%
12-6	0.5%		35.7%	6.4%	29.4%	10.7								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.3		31.4%
11-7	1.0%		9.8%	0.5%	9.2%	11.0											0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.9		9.3%
10-8	2.0%		2.4%	0.9%	1.5%	12.0											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			1.9		1.5%
9-9	3.3%		2.3%	1.8%	0.5%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3		0.5%
8-10	4.9%		1.2%	1.2%	0.0%	13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9		0.0%
7-11	7.6%		0.8%	0.8%		15.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.6
6-12	9.4%		0.5%	0.5%		15.3													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.4
5-13	13.1%		0.2%	0.2%		14.6															0.0	0.0	0.0	13.1
4-14	14.5%		0.1%	0.1%		15.9														0.0			0.0	14.5
3-15	15.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	15.5
2-16	14.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	14.3
1-17	9.2%																							9.2
0-18	4.2%																							4.2

Total	100%		0.9%	0.4%	0.5%	11.7						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	99.1		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%