IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Bucknell
Patriot League
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.3	#171
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.9	#29
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#186

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#151

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	23.4%	32.7%	20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.3%	0.7%	0.1%
Average Seed	14.1	13.6	14.4

.500 or above	60.0%	78.6%	53.2%
.500 or above in Conference	80.4%	88.4%	77.4%
Conference Champion	27.6%	38.2%	23.7%
Last Place in Conference	2.9%	1.0%	3.6%

First Four	2.8%	2.3%	3.0%
First Round	22.0%	31.3%	18.5%
Second Round	2.7%	5.3%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	0.6%	1.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.1 - 1.1	0.1 - 1.1
Quad 1b	0.2 - 1.5	0.3 - 2.6
Quad 2	0.8 - 2.8	1.1 - 5.4
Quad 3	3.9 - 5.0	5.0 - 10.4
Quad 4	10.7 - 3.9	15.7 - 14.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2018	119	@ St. Bonaventure	L	74-77	27%
Nov 10, 2018	220	Fairfield	W	78-75	72%
Nov 13, 2018	162	Canisius	L	76-77	60%
Nov 25, 2018	124	@ Vermont	L	70-73	29%
Nov 28, 2018	70	Northeastern	L	71-79	33%
Dec 01, 2018	183	Monmouth	W	77-76	63%
Dec 04, 2018	166	@ La Salle	L	76-77	40%
Dec 15, 2018	40	@ Ohio St.	L	68-79	12%
Dec 19, 2018	59	@ St. Mary's	L	67-76	15%
Dec 22, 2018	103	Rhode Island	L	72-76	36%
Dec 23, 2018	28	TCU	L	72-84	15%
Dec 25, 2018	139	UNLV	L	80-82	41%
Jan 02, 2019	216	@ Army	W	79-76	50%
Jan 05, 2019	223	@ Boston University	W	76-73	51%
Jan 09, 2019	209	Colgate	W	75-72	68%
Jan 12, 2019	242	American	W	75-71	73%
Jan 14, 2019	206	Holy Cross	W	69-67	67%
Jan 19, 2019	185	@ Lehigh	W	80-79	43%
Jan 23, 2019	300	Loyola Maryland	W	78-70	81%
Jan 26, 2019	242	@ American	W	75-71	54%
Jan 30, 2019	260	Navy	W	72-67	76%
Feb 02, 2019	293	@ Lafayette	W	80-73	64%
Feb 06, 2019	300	@ Loyola Maryland	W	78-70	64%
Feb 09, 2019	223	Boston University	W	76-73	70%
Feb 11, 2019	185	Lehigh	W	80-79	62%
Feb 16, 2019	206	@ Holy Cross	W	69-67	49%
Feb 19, 2019	209	@ Colgate	W	75-72	50%
Feb 24, 2019	293	Lafayette	W	80-73	79%
Feb 27, 2019	260	@ Navy	W	72-67	58%
Mar 02, 2019	216	Army	W	79-76	69%
Projected Record						15.7 - 14.3	11.3 - 6.7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	1.3	3.9	6.9	7.0	4.9	2.5	0.9		27.6	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	2.3	5.2	5.7	3.5	0.9	0.2				18.0	2nd
3rd										0.2	2.3	5.5	4.3	1.3	0.2	0.0					13.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	1.7	4.6	3.5	0.6	0.1							10.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.1	1.5	3.9	2.8	0.4	0.0								8.8	5th
6th							0.1	1.0	3.0	2.5	0.4	0.0									6.9	6th
7th						0.1	0.9	2.3	2.1	0.3											5.7	7th
8th				0.0	0.1	0.7	1.4	1.4	0.3	0.0											3.8	8th
9th			0.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	0.7	0.2													3.0	9th
10th	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.0	0.0													1.6	10th

Total	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.3	2.4	3.1	5.0	7.0	8.7	10.3	12.0	11.5	10.9	10.6	7.8	5.0	2.5	0.9			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.9		0.9
17-1	100.0%	2.5		2.5	0.0
16-2	96.7%	4.9		4.6	0.3
15-3	89.0%	7.0		5.4	1.5	0.0
14-4	65.0%	6.9		4.2	2.5	0.2	0.0
13-5	35.5%	3.9		1.6	1.6	0.6	0.1
12-6	11.7%	1.3		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0
11-7	1.9%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0							0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	27.6%	27.6		19.3	6.6	1.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.9%		85.3%	81.8%	3.5%	11.1			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0		0.1		19.1%
17-1	2.5%		74.8%	71.9%	2.9%	12.4				0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.6		10.3%
16-2	5.0%		62.8%	61.3%	1.5%	13.1							0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.0	1.9		3.8%
15-3	7.8%		51.4%	51.2%	0.2%	13.8											0.0	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.2	0.9	0.2	3.8		0.4%
14-4	10.6%		38.0%	37.9%	0.1%	14.2												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.4	1.3	0.4	6.5		0.2%
13-5	10.9%		27.6%	27.6%	0.0%	14.5												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.7	1.1	0.6	7.9		0.0%
12-6	11.5%		21.4%	21.4%		15.2													0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.0	9.0
11-7	12.0%		14.4%	14.4%		15.4														0.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	10.3
10-8	10.3%		11.3%	11.3%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	9.2
9-9	8.7%		7.7%	7.7%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.6	8.0
8-10	7.0%		3.6%	3.6%		15.8																0.0	0.2	6.8
7-11	5.0%		3.1%	3.1%		16.0																0.0	0.2	4.8
6-12	3.1%		1.8%	1.8%		16.0																	0.1	3.1
5-13	2.4%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	2.4
4-14	1.3%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.0	1.2
3-15	0.6%																							0.6
2-16	0.2%																							0.2
1-17	0.1%																							0.1
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		23.4%	23.2%	0.2%	14.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	2.3	4.2	5.1	5.7	5.1	76.6		0.3%