Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.0#333
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#5
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.3% 3.3% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 5.1% 19.0% 6.7%
Top 4 Seed 14.4% 19.0% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 24.6% 19.0% 6.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.2% 69.7% 47.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 51.3% 60.7% 37.1%
Average Seed 7.3 6.9 8.2
.500 or above 93.9% 97.5% 88.0%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 91.1% 81.0%
Conference Champion 24.8% 29.1% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four6.1% 6.0% 6.3%
First Round58.1% 66.6% 44.1%
Second Round34.5% 40.9% 23.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.2% 18.5% 9.8%
Elite Eight6.8% 8.5% 4.0%
Final Four3.0% 3.7% 1.8%
Championship Game1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 62.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.1 - 2.51.1 - 2.5
Quad 1b1.8 - 1.92.9 - 4.4
Quad 24.8 - 2.77.7 - 7.1
Quad 36.6 - 1.514.3 - 8.6
Quad 47.9 - 0.322.1 - 8.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 40   Ohio St. W 65-64 62%    
  Nov 13, 2018 302   NC Central W 71-52 98%    
  Nov 16, 2018 261   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-53 96%    
  Nov 19, 2018 211   Western Michigan W 73-59 94%    
  Nov 23, 2018 129   George Mason W 71-63 77%    
  Nov 24, 2018 118   Mississippi W 73-65 76%    
  Nov 27, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-53 99%    
  Dec 01, 2018 139   @ UNLV W 75-66 70%    
  Dec 04, 2018 128   Northern Kentucky W 70-62 84%    
  Dec 08, 2018 44   Xavier W 70-69 63%    
  Dec 15, 2018 21   @ Mississippi St. L 65-67 32%    
  Dec 19, 2018 50   UCLA W 71-70 64%    
  Dec 22, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 82-55 99%    
  Jan 02, 2019 195   Tulane W 74-61 91%    
  Jan 05, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 75-57 90%    
  Jan 10, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 69-63 62%    
  Jan 12, 2019 96   Connecticut W 68-62 78%    
  Jan 15, 2019 250   South Florida W 70-54 94%    
  Jan 19, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. W 70-65 56%    
  Jan 24, 2019 98   Tulsa W 69-63 78%    
  Jan 27, 2019 72   @ Temple W 68-64 52%    
  Feb 02, 2019 56   SMU W 63-61 67%    
  Feb 07, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 69-62 62%    
  Feb 10, 2019 37   @ Houston W 67-66 40%    
  Feb 17, 2019 81   Wichita St. W 70-65 73%    
  Feb 21, 2019 55   Central Florida W 61-59 65%    
  Feb 24, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 68-62 59%    
  Feb 27, 2019 56   @ SMU W 63-61 46%    
  Mar 02, 2019 101   Memphis W 69-62 78%    
  Mar 07, 2019 55   @ Central Florida W 61-59 47%    
  Mar 10, 2019 37   Houston W 67-66 60%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 8.9 12.0 - 6.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.7 4.9 6.8 6.4 3.6 1.3 24.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.1 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 5.7 4.7 1.3 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.9 4.0 0.5 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.3 9.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 12.0 9.3 6.8 3.6 1.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 100.0% 3.6    3.4 0.2
16-2 94.1% 6.4    5.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 72.7% 6.8    4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 40.7% 4.9    1.7 2.3 0.8 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.7    0.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.8% 24.8 16.2 6.7 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 58.0% 42.0% 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.6% 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.8% 99.4% 43.0% 56.3% 3.8 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
15-3 9.3% 99.0% 32.9% 66.0% 5.4 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.5%
14-4 12.0% 94.4% 27.8% 66.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 92.2%
13-5 13.3% 83.0% 20.1% 62.9% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.3 78.7%
12-6 12.5% 67.1% 18.3% 48.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.1 59.7%
11-7 11.6% 47.4% 13.0% 34.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.1 39.5%
10-8 9.6% 28.1% 11.0% 17.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 19.2%
9-9 7.3% 14.7% 7.9% 6.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.2 7.4%
8-10 5.4% 3.5% 2.9% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.7%
7-11 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 0.8% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.8%
6-12 2.0% 4.2% 4.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.3% 1.3
4-14 0.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.2% 20.3% 40.9% 7.3 2.3 2.8 4.2 5.0 4.8 5.4 5.4 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.2 3.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 38.8 51.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 66.2 29.3 4.5