Preseason Rankings
Houston
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.4#169
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#46
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#31
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 13.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.4% 13.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 24.4% 13.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.9% 57.9% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.0% 47.1% 2.6%
Average Seed 7.2 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 96.1% 96.2% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 90.4% 76.1%
Conference Champion 29.5% 29.5% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 0.5%
First Round55.2% 55.3% 15.5%
Second Round33.2% 33.2% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.3% 15.3% 0.5%
Elite Eight6.7% 6.7% 0.3%
Final Four2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.7 - 1.90.7 - 1.9
Quad 1b1.7 - 1.92.5 - 3.8
Quad 24.7 - 2.67.2 - 6.4
Quad 36.4 - 1.313.5 - 7.8
Quad 49.4 - 0.323.0 - 8.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 349   Alabama A&M W 82-55 99.8%   
  Nov 14, 2018 323   Rice W 82-61 99%    
  Nov 19, 2018 328   Northwestern St. W 82-60 99%    
  Nov 24, 2018 63   @ BYU W 72-69 48%    
  Nov 28, 2018 311   UT Rio Grande Valley W 88-68 98%    
  Dec 01, 2018 17   Oregon L 70-73 51%    
  Dec 04, 2018 227   Lamar W 79-64 94%    
  Dec 08, 2018 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-71 53%    
  Dec 12, 2018 46   LSU W 75-74 63%    
  Dec 16, 2018 71   Saint Louis W 70-66 71%    
  Dec 20, 2018 144   Utah St. W 77-67 85%    
  Dec 23, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 81-56 99%    
  Dec 29, 2018 228   NJIT W 78-63 94%    
  Jan 02, 2019 98   Tulsa W 75-69 79%    
  Jan 06, 2019 101   Memphis W 75-68 79%    
  Jan 09, 2019 72   @ Temple W 74-70 52%    
  Jan 12, 2019 81   Wichita St. W 77-72 74%    
  Jan 16, 2019 56   @ SMU W 69-67 46%    
  Jan 19, 2019 250   @ South Florida W 76-60 86%    
  Jan 23, 2019 290   East Carolina W 81-63 96%    
  Jan 27, 2019 98   @ Tulsa W 75-69 61%    
  Jan 31, 2019 72   Temple W 74-70 70%    
  Feb 07, 2019 55   @ Central Florida W 67-65 46%    
  Feb 10, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 66-67 60%    
  Feb 14, 2019 96   @ Connecticut W 75-69 60%    
  Feb 17, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 80-67 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 250   South Florida W 76-60 94%    
  Feb 27, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 81-63 89%    
  Mar 02, 2019 55   Central Florida W 67-65 66%    
  Mar 07, 2019 56   SMU W 69-67 66%    
  Mar 10, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 66-67 40%    
Projected Record 23.0 - 8.0 12.4 - 5.6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.3 8.8 7.4 4.8 1.6 29.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 6.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.9 4.5 1.2 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 4.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.4 4.2 6.2 8.7 11.1 12.4 13.1 12.8 11.7 7.9 4.8 1.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 4.8    4.6 0.2
16-2 93.3% 7.4    6.2 1.2 0.0
15-3 75.3% 8.8    5.7 2.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 41.5% 5.3    1.9 2.6 0.8 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.5% 29.5 20.3 7.3 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 55.4% 44.6% 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.8% 99.7% 48.5% 51.2% 3.0 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-2 7.9% 98.7% 41.0% 57.8% 4.3 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.9%
15-3 11.7% 94.9% 31.7% 63.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.0 2.6 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 92.6%
14-4 12.8% 86.4% 25.5% 60.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 81.7%
13-5 13.1% 74.5% 19.3% 55.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 3.3 68.4%
12-6 12.4% 50.3% 15.5% 34.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.2 41.1%
11-7 11.1% 30.6% 11.2% 19.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 7.7 21.8%
10-8 8.7% 15.0% 7.3% 7.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 8.3%
9-9 6.2% 8.2% 6.6% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.7 1.7%
8-10 4.2% 4.6% 4.5% 0.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.1%
7-11 2.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 57.9% 20.5% 37.4% 7.2 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.9 5.1 5.5 5.6 6.4 6.9 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 42.1 47.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.5 57.3 36.8 3.4 2.6