Preseason Rankings
Tulsa
American Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#98
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.8#210
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#99
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#121
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 14.4% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.5% 9.6% 3.3%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.4
.500 or above 68.2% 68.9% 31.5%
.500 or above in Conference 55.4% 55.9% 29.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.6% 8.5%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 1.0%
First Round12.8% 12.9% 3.3%
Second Round5.0% 5.0% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 1.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alcorn St. (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.5 - 3.50.5 - 3.5
Quad 1b1.0 - 2.81.5 - 6.3
Quad 22.6 - 3.64.1 - 9.9
Quad 34.4 - 2.58.6 - 12.4
Quad 49.0 - 1.117.6 - 13.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 346   Alcorn St. W 80-61 98%    
  Nov 10, 2018 348   South Carolina St. W 84-64 99%    
  Nov 16, 2018 288   California Baptist W 78-66 91%    
  Nov 19, 2018 264   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-62 88%    
  Nov 22, 2018 7   Nevada L 71-83 14%    
  Nov 23, 2018 104   Southern Illinois W 70-69 51%    
  Nov 27, 2018 256   Texas Arlington W 80-70 87%    
  Dec 01, 2018 87   @ Utah L 68-69 36%    
  Dec 05, 2018 74   Oklahoma St. L 72-74 52%    
  Dec 08, 2018 14   Kansas St. L 64-74 27%    
  Dec 13, 2018 292   New Orleans W 75-63 90%    
  Dec 16, 2018 107   Dayton W 71-70 53%    
  Dec 22, 2018 283   @ Oral Roberts W 76-65 75%    
  Jan 02, 2019 37   @ Houston L 69-75 21%    
  Jan 05, 2019 250   South Florida W 73-63 86%    
  Jan 10, 2019 36   Cincinnati L 63-69 38%    
  Jan 12, 2019 56   @ SMU L 66-70 27%    
  Jan 16, 2019 96   Connecticut L 71-72 59%    
  Jan 19, 2019 55   @ Central Florida L 64-68 26%    
  Jan 24, 2019 36   @ Cincinnati L 63-69 22%    
  Jan 27, 2019 37   Houston L 69-75 39%    
  Jan 30, 2019 101   Memphis W 72-71 61%    
  Feb 02, 2019 81   @ Wichita St. L 72-74 36%    
  Feb 09, 2019 72   Temple L 70-73 52%    
  Feb 14, 2019 195   @ Tulane W 77-70 60%    
  Feb 17, 2019 290   @ East Carolina W 78-66 76%    
  Feb 20, 2019 81   Wichita St. L 72-74 55%    
  Feb 23, 2019 72   @ Temple L 70-73 32%    
  Feb 28, 2019 195   Tulane W 77-70 78%    
  Mar 03, 2019 290   East Carolina W 78-66 88%    
  Mar 09, 2019 101   @ Memphis W 72-71 41%    
Projected Record 17.6 - 13.4 9.0 - 9.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.2 4.0 0.5 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.3 4.2 0.8 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 4.9 4.3 1.0 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.5 6.4 8.6 10.5 12.3 12.5 11.8 9.8 8.5 5.5 3.9 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 89.9% 0.7    0.6 0.2
15-3 75.6% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 42.6% 1.7    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.6% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 57.7% 42.3% 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 99.9% 44.1% 55.8% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-2 0.8% 96.3% 33.1% 63.2% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.5%
15-3 2.1% 87.9% 23.0% 64.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 84.3%
14-4 3.9% 70.8% 15.1% 55.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 65.6%
13-5 5.5% 45.8% 12.2% 33.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 38.2%
12-6 8.5% 26.7% 8.3% 18.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2 20.0%
11-7 9.8% 16.6% 6.9% 9.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 10.4%
10-8 11.8% 7.7% 5.7% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 2.0%
9-9 12.5% 3.9% 3.2% 0.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.7%
8-10 12.3% 2.3% 2.3% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.0
7-11 10.5% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.3
6-12 8.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.5
5-13 6.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-15 2.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.2% 5.2% 9.0% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.1 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 85.8 9.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0