Preseason Rankings
Umass Lowell
America East
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#306
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.6#33
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#249
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#329
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 4.2% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 20.6% 44.9% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.7% 52.1% 31.1%
Conference Champion 2.9% 6.2% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 13.3% 21.8%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.9%
First Round1.6% 3.6% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Away) - 12.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 0.20.0 - 0.2
Quad 1b0.0 - 0.60.0 - 0.8
Quad 20.2 - 2.20.2 - 2.9
Quad 31.6 - 6.31.8 - 9.2
Quad 49.0 - 9.010.8 - 18.2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 154   @ Massachusetts L 72-81 13%    
  Nov 10, 2018 215   Wagner L 72-77 42%    
  Nov 13, 2018 313   @ Central Connecticut St. W 74-73 40%    
  Nov 16, 2018 207   @ Brown L 79-85 22%    
  Nov 17, 2018 216   Army L 77-82 32%    
  Nov 18, 2018 324   Sacred Heart W 77-75 56%    
  Nov 25, 2018 182   @ Duquesne L 72-79 18%    
  Nov 27, 2018 96   @ Connecticut L 70-83 8%    
  Dec 01, 2018 228   NJIT L 73-77 45%    
  Dec 04, 2018 223   @ Boston University L 74-79 25%    
  Dec 11, 2018 318   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 79-78 43%    
  Dec 21, 2018 300   Loyola Maryland L 76-77 58%    
  Dec 29, 2018 324   @ Sacred Heart W 77-75 46%    
  Jan 05, 2019 222   Stony Brook L 72-77 44%    
  Jan 09, 2019 316   @ New Hampshire W 72-71 43%    
  Jan 12, 2019 214   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74-79 43%    
  Jan 16, 2019 278   Albany L 72-74 53%    
  Jan 19, 2019 193   @ Hartford L 73-80 21%    
  Jan 23, 2019 269   @ Binghamton L 73-75 33%    
  Jan 30, 2019 327   Maine W 80-77 68%    
  Feb 02, 2019 124   Vermont L 68-79 25%    
  Feb 06, 2019 316   New Hampshire W 72-71 63%    
  Feb 09, 2019 222   @ Stony Brook L 72-77 27%    
  Feb 13, 2019 278   @ Albany L 72-74 34%    
  Feb 16, 2019 214   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74-79 24%    
  Feb 21, 2019 269   Binghamton L 73-75 51%    
  Feb 23, 2019 193   Hartford L 73-80 38%    
  Feb 27, 2019 327   @ Maine W 80-77 50%    
  Mar 05, 2019 124   @ Vermont L 68-79 13%    
Projected Record 10.8 - 18.2 6.3 - 9.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.2 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.4 4.8 1.1 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 6.2 4.7 1.1 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 6.2 4.8 1.1 0.0 15.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 4.2 6.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 16.3 8th
9th 0.9 2.9 4.1 3.8 1.5 0.3 13.4 9th
Total 0.9 3.0 5.3 8.3 11.2 12.2 13.2 12.2 10.8 8.5 6.6 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-2 96.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
13-3 79.4% 0.9    0.6 0.3 0.0
12-4 41.2% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-5 10.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 85.3% 5.9% 79.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.4%
15-1 0.2% 36.4% 36.1% 0.2% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4%
14-2 0.4% 38.8% 38.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-3 1.1% 35.3% 35.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
12-4 2.1% 13.3% 13.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
11-5 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7
10-6 6.6% 4.8% 4.8% 15.8 0.1 0.3 6.3
9-7 8.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 8.3
8-8 10.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 10.6
7-9 12.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.1
6-10 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-11 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-12 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-13 8.3% 8.3
2-14 5.3% 5.3
1-15 3.0% 3.0
0-16 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%