Gardner-Webb
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#218
Achievement Rating-0.3#174
Pace67.7#215
Improvement-2.7#287

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#176
First Shot+2.8#90
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#339
Layup/Dunks+3.4#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement-2.9#300

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#259
First Shot-0.2#180
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#352
Layups/Dunks+1.0#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#254
Freethrows-0.8#231
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.7% 9.3% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 99.2% 100.0% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 100.0% 92.2%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round8.3% 9.0% 6.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 47   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-69 8%     0 - 1 +0.1 -0.5 -0.3
  Nov 09, 2018 17   @ Virginia Tech L 59-87 3%     0 - 2 -9.8 -13.1 +6.3
  Nov 13, 2018 64   @ Furman L 86-88 11%     0 - 3 +8.1 +12.1 -3.8
  Nov 16, 2018 348   @ Savannah St. W 97-77 81%     1 - 3 +7.4 +6.7 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2018 296   Eastern Illinois L 78-79 67%     1 - 4 -8.7 +6.2 -15.0
  Nov 24, 2018 252   UNC Wilmington W 81-72 58%     2 - 4 +3.6 -1.9 +5.2
  Nov 25, 2018 259   Arkansas St. L 69-77 59%     2 - 5 -13.6 -4.2 -9.9
  Nov 28, 2018 337   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-61 73%     3 - 5 +3.2 +5.5 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2018 348   Savannah St. W 97-60 91%     4 - 5 +18.9 +5.9 +10.0
  Dec 13, 2018 341   Kennesaw St. W 81-77 89%     5 - 5 -12.7 -1.2 -11.6
  Dec 17, 2018 108   @ Georgia Tech W 79-69 16%     6 - 5 +17.1 +16.4 +0.9
  Dec 29, 2018 176   @ Wake Forest W 73-69 30%     7 - 5 +6.1 -5.7 +11.4
  Jan 05, 2019 213   @ Campbell L 61-72 39%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -11.4 -11.4 -0.7
  Jan 12, 2019 337   South Carolina Upstate W 64-59 87%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -10.3 -10.6 +0.6
  Jan 17, 2019 135   @ Radford L 58-75 22%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -12.1 -2.2 -13.2
  Jan 19, 2019 241   Hampton W 87-74 65%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +5.6 -3.1 +7.1
  Jan 24, 2019 177   @ Winthrop L 88-97 31%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -7.0 +5.2 -11.3
  Jan 26, 2019 214   @ Charleston Southern L 60-74 39%     9 - 9 2 - 4 -14.4 -13.3 -1.1
  Jan 30, 2019 225   High Point W 69-67 63%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -4.6 -0.6 -3.9
  Feb 02, 2019 340   UNC Asheville W 82-81 89%     11 - 9 4 - 4 -15.5 +6.3 -21.7
  Feb 07, 2019 294   @ Longwood W 89-88 56%     12 - 9 5 - 4 -3.7 +5.5 -9.4
  Feb 09, 2019 215   @ Presbyterian L 101-103 39%     12 - 10 5 - 5 -2.5 +7.0 -9.1
  Feb 13, 2019 214   Charleston Southern W 77-74 60%     13 - 10 6 - 5 -3.0 +0.8 -3.8
  Feb 16, 2019 177   Winthrop W 64-60 51%     14 - 10 7 - 5 +0.4 -12.6 +13.1
  Feb 21, 2019 340   @ UNC Asheville W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 225   @ High Point L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 27, 2019 215   Presbyterian W 77-74 61%    
  Mar 02, 2019 294   Longwood W 74-67 75%    
Projected Record 16.5 - 11.5 9.5 - 6.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 8.2 11.9 20.2 2nd
3rd 1.0 17.8 2.7 21.5 3rd
4th 0.0 8.0 10.7 0.1 18.8 4th
5th 1.2 16.4 1.1 18.7 5th
6th 0.1 6.4 6.7 13.2 6th
7th 1.1 4.6 0.2 5.9 7th
8th 0.7 0.2 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.9 12.4 32.3 37.9 15.5 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 4.9% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 15.5% 12.9% 12.9% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.2 13.5
10-6 37.9% 9.8% 9.8% 15.5 0.0 1.8 1.8 34.1
9-7 32.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.0 0.8 1.6 30.0
8-8 12.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.9
7-9 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.8
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 4.1 4.1 91.3 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 14.9 0.3 19.1 70.6 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.7%
Lose Out 0.8%