Longwood
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#300
Achievement Rating-3.3#211
Pace65.8#281
Improvement+0.9#103

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#343
First Shot-7.8#335
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#245
Layup/Dunks-3.7#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows-3.9#330
Improvement+0.1#154

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#133
First Shot+2.5#99
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#258
Layups/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+1.4#115
Improvement+0.8#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 33.4% 56.2% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.3% 43.2% 31.6%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.7% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.6% 7.5% 12.3%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 1.5%
First Round1.4% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 172   @ Richmond W 63-58 17%     1 - 0 +7.3 -15.3 +22.3
  Nov 13, 2018 347   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-63 70%     2 - 0 -10.3 -4.2 -5.7
  Nov 16, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 89-73 92%     3 - 0 -7.7 +5.4 -13.1
  Nov 19, 2018 309   @ Charlotte L 39-42 42%     3 - 1 -8.7 -30.6 +21.6
  Nov 23, 2018 256   Fairfield W 67-65 41%     4 - 1 -3.4 -5.1 +1.8
  Nov 24, 2018 261   Denver L 62-64 42%     4 - 2 -7.8 -9.5 +1.5
  Nov 25, 2018 175   @ Seattle L 50-70 18%     4 - 3 -18.0 -18.3 -1.0
  Dec 01, 2018 316   VMI W 65-45 67%     5 - 3 +7.7 -11.7 +19.8
  Dec 09, 2018 160   @ Duquesne L 59-70 15%    
  Dec 17, 2018 231   @ Cornell L 62-69 27%    
  Dec 21, 2018 338   Stetson W 71-63 76%    
  Dec 29, 2018 184   @ The Citadel L 75-84 19%    
  Jan 05, 2019 132   @ Radford L 56-69 11%    
  Jan 10, 2019 344   UNC Asheville W 65-56 81%    
  Jan 12, 2019 232   Charleston Southern L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 16, 2019 180   @ Winthrop L 67-77 19%    
  Jan 19, 2019 305   @ Presbyterian L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 21, 2019 132   Radford L 59-66 25%    
  Jan 24, 2019 246   High Point W 60-59 51%    
  Jan 26, 2019 331   @ South Carolina Upstate W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 30, 2019 240   Hampton W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 243   @ Campbell L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 07, 2019 190   Gardner-Webb L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 13, 2019 246   @ High Point L 56-62 30%    
  Feb 16, 2019 331   South Carolina Upstate W 68-61 72%    
  Feb 21, 2019 240   @ Hampton L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 23, 2019 243   Campbell W 68-67 50%    
  Mar 02, 2019 190   @ Gardner-Webb L 60-69 21%    
Projected Record 12.9 - 15.1 6.5 - 9.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.8 3.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.0 0.7 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.5 6.5 1.5 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.3 2.5 0.1 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.0 3.1 0.2 0.0 15.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.8 5.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 6.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.1 6.6 10.6 14.1 15.9 15.2 12.9 9.3 5.8 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-2 92.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-3 72.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
12-4 39.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-5 10.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.0% 13.2% 13.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.2% 16.3% 16.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.6% 16.5% 16.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-4 1.4% 12.0% 12.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
11-5 3.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.9
10-6 5.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.4
9-7 9.3% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.9
8-8 12.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.5
7-9 15.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.0
6-10 15.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 15.7
5-11 14.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.1
4-12 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-13 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.6
2-14 3.1% 3.1
1-15 1.0% 1.0
0-16 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%