Longwood
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#294
Achievement Rating-6.8#270
Pace68.3#197
Improvement-1.3#244

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#298
First Shot-3.1#270
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#317
Layup/Dunks-4.6#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#41
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement+4.2#26

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#236
First Shot-2.0#231
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#216
Layups/Dunks+2.4#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#344
Freethrows-1.3#264
Improvement-5.5#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 13.0% 16.0% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 4.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 179   @ Richmond W 63-58 19%     1 - 0 +6.6 -15.2 +21.6
  Nov 13, 2018 352   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 66-63 84%     2 - 0 -14.9 -6.4 -8.2
  Nov 16, 2018 353   Delaware St. W 89-73 93%     3 - 0 -8.1 +5.3 -13.5
  Nov 19, 2018 287   @ Charlotte L 39-42 38%     3 - 1 -7.4 -28.0 +20.2
  Nov 23, 2018 286   Fairfield W 67-65 48%     4 - 1 -5.0 -2.7 -2.1
  Nov 24, 2018 297   Denver L 62-64 51%     4 - 2 -9.8 -11.9 +1.9
  Nov 25, 2018 193   @ Seattle L 50-70 21%     4 - 3 -19.2 -17.3 -3.1
  Dec 01, 2018 318   VMI W 65-45 70%     5 - 3 +7.2 -13.8 +21.4
  Dec 09, 2018 152   @ Duquesne L 71-80 15%     5 - 4 -5.6 -1.2 -4.2
  Dec 17, 2018 210   @ Cornell L 64-70 24%     5 - 5 -6.2 -13.7 +7.9
  Dec 21, 2018 335   Stetson W 77-63 77%     6 - 5 -1.1 +7.7 -6.7
  Dec 29, 2018 278   @ The Citadel W 110-94 36%     7 - 5 +12.1 +14.0 -4.5
  Jan 05, 2019 135   @ Radford L 64-71 13%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -2.1 -7.6 +5.5
  Jan 10, 2019 340   UNC Asheville W 67-62 80%     8 - 6 1 - 1 -11.5 -7.1 -3.8
  Jan 12, 2019 214   Charleston Southern L 91-101 44%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -16.0 +7.1 -22.2
  Jan 16, 2019 177   @ Winthrop W 75-61 19%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +16.0 -2.3 +17.6
  Jan 19, 2019 215   @ Presbyterian L 64-71 25%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -7.5 -9.6 +1.8
  Jan 21, 2019 135   Radford L 59-72 26%     9 - 9 2 - 4 -13.6 -10.9 -3.8
  Jan 24, 2019 225   High Point W 55-51 47%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -2.6 -13.9 +11.6
  Jan 26, 2019 337   @ South Carolina Upstate L 63-80 59%     10 - 10 3 - 5 -26.8 -13.9 -12.8
  Jan 30, 2019 241   Hampton L 83-96 50%     10 - 11 3 - 6 -20.4 +6.8 -27.6
  Feb 02, 2019 213   @ Campbell L 62-83 25%     10 - 12 3 - 7 -21.4 -10.4 -12.1
  Feb 07, 2019 218   Gardner-Webb L 88-89 44%     10 - 13 3 - 8 -7.1 +0.7 -7.7
  Feb 13, 2019 225   @ High Point W 62-59 27%     11 - 13 4 - 8 +1.9 +0.2 +2.2
  Feb 16, 2019 337   South Carolina Upstate W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 21, 2019 241   @ Hampton L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 213   Campbell L 69-71 45%    
  Mar 02, 2019 218   @ Gardner-Webb L 67-74 25%    
Projected Record 12.8 - 15.2 5.8 - 10.2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 1.4 4.1 7th
8th 0.5 11.1 12.6 0.5 24.6 8th
9th 7.1 32.2 27.5 2.6 69.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 7.5 32.8 38.6 18.0 3.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.1
7-9 18.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 17.7
6-10 38.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 38.3
5-11 32.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 32.6
4-12 7.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 15.8 25.0 75.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 5.2%