Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#6
Achievement Rating+25.4#3
Pace55.1#353
Improvement+0.0#173

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#16
First Shot+6.4#27
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#62
Layup/Dunks+3.5#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows+1.0#128
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense+9.6#4
First Shot+7.3#17
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#41
Layups/Dunks-3.9#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#2
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#101
Freethrows+3.1#34
Improvement+0.0#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 27.1% 29.1% 15.5%
Top 4 Seed 77.4% 80.1% 61.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.7% 98.2% 94.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.3% 97.9% 94.2%
Average Seed 3.1 2.9 4.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 94.0% 87.5%
Conference Champion 14.4% 15.1% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 2.1%
First Round97.4% 97.9% 94.0%
Second Round86.2% 87.6% 78.5%
Sweet Sixteen60.2% 62.3% 48.3%
Elite Eight37.3% 39.1% 27.4%
Final Four21.9% 23.1% 15.1%
Championship Game11.9% 12.6% 7.7%
National Champion5.9% 6.2% 4.0%

Next Game: South Carolina (Away) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 284   Towson W 73-42 99%     1 - 0 +21.1 +14.2 +14.9
  Nov 11, 2018 277   George Washington W 76-57 99%     2 - 0 +9.6 +3.4 +7.0
  Nov 16, 2018 350   Coppin St. W 97-40 99.7%    3 - 0 +36.7 +26.0 +16.0
  Nov 21, 2018 250   Middle Tennessee W 74-52 97%     4 - 0 +16.7 +5.5 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2018 76   Dayton W 66-59 85%     5 - 0 +13.9 +14.4 +1.4
  Nov 23, 2018 13   Wisconsin W 53-46 60%     6 - 0 +22.3 -0.6 +24.4
  Nov 28, 2018 30   @ Maryland W 76-71 60%     7 - 0 +20.4 +23.2 -2.0
  Dec 03, 2018 314   Morgan St. W 83-45 99%     8 - 0 +26.0 +5.8 +20.3
  Dec 09, 2018 92   Virginia Commonwealth W 57-49 91%     9 - 0 +10.8 +1.6 +10.7
  Dec 19, 2018 120   @ South Carolina W 70-59 85%    
  Dec 22, 2018 194   William & Mary W 79-56 98%    
  Dec 31, 2018 126   Marshall W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 05, 2019 15   Florida St. W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 09, 2019 105   @ Boston College W 70-60 83%    
  Jan 12, 2019 52   @ Clemson W 64-59 69%    
  Jan 15, 2019 9   Virginia Tech W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 19, 2019 1   @ Duke L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 22, 2019 158   Wake Forest W 74-53 97%    
  Jan 26, 2019 48   @ Notre Dame W 65-60 68%    
  Jan 29, 2019 20   @ North Carolina St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 02, 2019 46   Miami (FL) W 69-58 84%    
  Feb 09, 2019 1   Duke L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 11, 2019 2   @ North Carolina L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 16, 2019 48   Notre Dame W 68-57 85%    
  Feb 18, 2019 9   @ Virginia Tech L 63-65 42%    
  Feb 23, 2019 34   @ Louisville W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 27, 2019 80   Georgia Tech W 65-51 90%    
  Mar 02, 2019 115   Pittsburgh W 70-53 94%    
  Mar 04, 2019 40   @ Syracuse W 62-58 65%    
  Mar 09, 2019 34   Louisville W 68-59 79%    
Projected Record 23.9 - 6.1 12.1 - 5.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 2.5 5.0 4.1 1.8 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.4 4.1 0.6 0.0 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.4 7.4 3.3 0.3 16.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.8 7.0 3.2 0.2 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.6 3.1 0.3 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 3.1 0.4 9.1 6th
7th 0.4 2.7 2.9 0.5 6.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.6 7.1 10.9 13.8 15.5 16.0 13.5 9.4 4.7 1.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 98.9% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 87.7% 4.1    2.9 1.1 0.1
15-3 53.5% 5.0    2.0 2.3 0.6 0.1
14-4 18.9% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.1% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 7.7 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.0 0.3 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.0 1.9 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.7% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.1 4.4 0.3 100.0%
15-3 9.4% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 1.2 7.5 1.8 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.5% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 1.5 7.7 5.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.0% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.0 4.1 8.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.5% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.7 1.0 6.2 5.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.8% 99.8% 7.9% 91.9% 3.5 0.2 2.5 4.8 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 10.9% 99.2% 5.2% 93.9% 4.8 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-9 7.1% 97.9% 3.9% 94.0% 6.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.8%
8-10 3.6% 85.7% 2.7% 83.0% 8.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.5 85.3%
7-11 2.1% 69.0% 0.5% 68.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.7 68.9%
6-12 0.8% 40.2% 4.9% 35.4% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 37.2%
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.7% 13.7% 84.0% 3.1 27.1 24.9 15.3 10.1 7.2 4.6 2.9 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.3 97.3%