Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.0#3
Achievement Rating+28.5#2
Pace54.5#353
Improvement+0.8#151

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#10
First Shot+7.0#23
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#14
Layup/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#62
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement-0.8#224

Defense
Total Defense+11.8#2
First Shot+11.1#3
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#105
Layups/Dunks+1.4#114
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#16
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#26
Freethrows+2.8#19
Improvement+1.5#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 93.7% 97.0% 88.0%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.1 1.0 1.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 39.6% 53.4% 16.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.2% 99.3% 99.1%
Sweet Sixteen83.1% 84.0% 81.5%
Elite Eight63.0% 64.5% 60.6%
Final Four41.9% 43.5% 39.3%
Championship Game24.9% 26.3% 22.5%
National Champion12.9% 13.7% 11.4%

Next Game: Louisville (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 253   Towson W 73-42 99%     1 - 0 +22.8 +14.8 +16.0
  Nov 11, 2018 256   George Washington W 76-57 99%     2 - 0 +10.7 +4.8 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2018 345   Coppin St. W 97-40 99.8%    3 - 0 +39.2 +27.6 +16.9
  Nov 21, 2018 244   Middle Tennessee W 74-52 99%     4 - 0 +17.1 +4.2 +14.2
  Nov 22, 2018 72   Dayton W 66-59 91%     5 - 0 +13.8 +12.9 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2018 15   Wisconsin W 53-46 73%     6 - 0 +22.5 +1.4 +22.5
  Nov 28, 2018 21   @ Maryland W 76-71 68%     7 - 0 +22.3 +24.0 -0.9
  Dec 03, 2018 334   Morgan St. W 83-45 99.7%    8 - 0 +22.9 +5.1 +18.0
  Dec 09, 2018 47   Virginia Commonwealth W 57-49 92%     9 - 0 +14.6 +2.7 +13.4
  Dec 19, 2018 74   @ South Carolina W 69-52 88%     10 - 0 +26.4 +11.2 +17.9
  Dec 22, 2018 204   William & Mary W 72-40 99%     11 - 0 +26.6 +10.7 +23.0
  Dec 31, 2018 202   Marshall W 100-64 99%     12 - 0 +30.8 +14.8 +13.3
  Jan 05, 2019 18   Florida St. W 65-52 81%     13 - 0 1 - 0 +25.6 +6.1 +20.9
  Jan 09, 2019 97   @ Boston College W 83-56 90%     14 - 0 2 - 0 +34.8 +20.9 +16.2
  Jan 12, 2019 30   @ Clemson W 63-43 74%     15 - 0 3 - 0 +35.1 +9.6 +28.6
  Jan 15, 2019 17   Virginia Tech W 81-59 81%     16 - 0 4 - 0 +34.7 +32.9 +7.3
  Jan 19, 2019 1   @ Duke L 70-72 30%     16 - 1 4 - 1 +25.4 +16.9 +8.3
  Jan 22, 2019 176   Wake Forest W 68-45 98%     17 - 1 5 - 1 +19.5 +3.5 +19.6
  Jan 26, 2019 65   @ Notre Dame W 82-55 87%     18 - 1 6 - 1 +37.0 +24.7 +16.0
  Jan 29, 2019 32   @ North Carolina St. W 66-65 76%     19 - 1 7 - 1 +15.6 +3.5 +12.2
  Feb 02, 2019 60   Miami (FL) W 56-46 93%     20 - 1 8 - 1 +15.0 -3.8 +20.6
  Feb 09, 2019 1   Duke L 71-81 50%     20 - 2 8 - 2 +11.9 +15.0 -4.2
  Feb 11, 2019 6   @ North Carolina W 69-61 48%     21 - 2 9 - 2 +30.5 +16.5 +15.3
  Feb 16, 2019 65   Notre Dame W 60-54 94%     22 - 2 10 - 2 +10.4 -2.4 +13.7
  Feb 18, 2019 17   @ Virginia Tech W 64-58 64%     23 - 2 11 - 2 +24.2 +10.3 +15.0
  Feb 23, 2019 16   @ Louisville W 63-59 63%    
  Feb 27, 2019 108   Georgia Tech W 67-47 97%    
  Mar 02, 2019 91   Pittsburgh W 70-51 97%    
  Mar 04, 2019 40   @ Syracuse W 63-55 78%    
  Mar 09, 2019 16   Louisville W 66-57 81%    
Projected Record 27.2 - 2.8 15.2 - 2.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 11.3 27.9 39.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 12.7 30.1 10.9 54.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 3.5 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 3.0 16.7 41.4 38.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 71.8% 27.9    10.4 17.4
15-3 27.2% 11.3    1.1 6.6 3.5
14-4 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 39.6% 39.6 11.6 24.1 3.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 38.8% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.0 38.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 41.4% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.1 39.2 2.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.7% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.2 14.0 2.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.0% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 1.1 93.7 6.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.7% 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.2% 100.0% 1.0 99.0 1.0 0.0