Radford
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#137
Achievement Rating+5.9#96
Pace63.3#317
Improvement-1.4#251

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#90
First Shot+4.3#55
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#250
Layup/Dunks+0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#78
Freethrows-1.1#255
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#198
First Shot-1.6#225
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#109
Layups/Dunks+0.1#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#274
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-1.4#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 38.6% 32.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.3% 96.8% 85.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.2% 38.6% 32.8%
Second Round2.9% 3.4% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Charleston Southern (Away) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 197   Illinois-Chicago W 88-78 75%     1 - 0 +5.2 +13.6 -8.4
  Nov 14, 2018 65   @ Notre Dame W 63-60 23%     2 - 0 +12.9 +4.4 +9.0
  Nov 17, 2018 153   @ Duquesne L 64-69 46%     2 - 1 -1.6 -6.6 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2018 207   @ William & Mary W 81-72 59%     3 - 1 +9.0 +11.1 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2018 26   @ Texas W 62-59 11%     4 - 1 +18.7 -2.1 +20.9
  Dec 04, 2018 262   @ James Madison L 66-73 70%     4 - 2 -10.1 -3.7 -7.1
  Dec 08, 2018 208   @ Ohio L 69-78 59%     4 - 3 -9.0 -2.7 -5.9
  Dec 15, 2018 30   @ Clemson L 66-74 12%     4 - 4 +7.1 +9.5 -3.2
  Dec 18, 2018 115   @ UNC Greensboro L 58-65 34%     4 - 5 -0.4 -2.3 +1.0
  Dec 21, 2018 127   Georgia Southern W 80-68 57%     5 - 5 +12.3 +8.3 +4.3
  Dec 29, 2018 20   @ Maryland L 64-78 9%     5 - 6 +3.2 +3.9 -1.6
  Jan 05, 2019 299   Longwood W 71-64 88%     6 - 6 1 - 0 -3.7 -5.3 +1.6
  Jan 10, 2019 336   @ South Carolina Upstate W 79-72 87%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -2.8 +2.8 -5.6
  Jan 12, 2019 217   Presbyterian W 79-77 79%     8 - 6 3 - 0 -4.1 -1.7 -2.4
  Jan 17, 2019 222   Gardner-Webb W 75-58 79%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +10.7 +11.5 +2.6
  Jan 19, 2019 341   @ UNC Asheville W 71-63 89%     10 - 6 5 - 0 -3.1 +1.4 -3.4
  Jan 21, 2019 299   @ Longwood W 72-59 76%     11 - 6 6 - 0 +7.7 +3.9 +4.8
  Jan 24, 2019 220   Charleston Southern W 86-78 79%     12 - 6 7 - 0 +1.8 +18.4 -15.8
  Jan 30, 2019 211   Campbell L 67-68 78%     12 - 7 7 - 1 -6.8 -6.9 +0.1
  Feb 02, 2019 173   @ Winthrop W 80-61 51%     13 - 7 8 - 1 +21.1 +0.9 +19.0
  Feb 07, 2019 230   @ Hampton W 101-98 65%     14 - 7 9 - 1 +1.4 +16.0 -14.9
  Feb 09, 2019 225   High Point W 69-66 80%     15 - 7 10 - 1 -3.5 -1.5 -1.9
  Feb 16, 2019 220   @ Charleston Southern W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 21, 2019 173   Winthrop W 81-75 71%    
  Feb 23, 2019 230   Hampton W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 27, 2019 225   @ High Point W 65-62 62%    
  Mar 02, 2019 211   @ Campbell W 73-70 59%    
Projected Record 18.3 - 8.7 13.3 - 2.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 13.5 31.7 32.0 13.9 92.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 3.3 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 0.2 1.7 3rd
4th 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.6 4.8 17.0 31.7 32.0 13.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 13.9    13.9
14-2 100.0% 32.0    32.0
13-3 100.0% 31.7    27.4 4.3 0.1
12-4 79.4% 13.5    5.4 6.4 1.7 0.0
11-5 24.0% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7
8-8
Total 92.3% 92.3 78.8 11.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 13.9% 45.2% 45.2% 12.9 0.1 1.5 3.5 1.1 0.0 7.6
14-2 32.0% 39.6% 39.6% 13.8 0.0 0.3 3.9 7.1 1.4 19.3
13-3 31.7% 35.0% 35.0% 14.2 0.0 1.2 6.5 3.3 0.1 20.6
12-4 17.0% 29.1% 29.1% 14.6 0.1 2.1 2.6 0.1 12.0
11-5 4.8% 22.8% 22.8% 14.8 0.3 0.7 0.1 3.7
10-6 0.6% 24.4% 24.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 1.8 8.7 17.2 8.1 0.3 63.8 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 100.0% 12.9 1.7 24.4 55.3 18.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%
Lose Out 0.2%