Winthrop
Big South
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#173
Achievement Rating+1.8#145
Pace80.9#14
Improvement-0.7#219

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#113
First Shot+3.3#77
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#247
Layup/Dunks-4.2#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#4
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement-1.0#234

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#250
First Shot-2.9#261
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#186
Layups/Dunks+3.3#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement+0.3#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.3% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 12.9% 20.1% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round18.5% 20.2% 16.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 117   @ Vanderbilt L 79-92 25%     0 - 1 -6.5 +1.1 -6.1
  Nov 10, 2018 330   @ SIU Edwardsville W 94-82 78%     1 - 1 +3.4 +7.9 -5.7
  Nov 17, 2018 100   East Tennessee St. L 74-76 39%     1 - 2 +0.3 -3.6 +4.0
  Nov 21, 2018 5   @ Kentucky L 74-87 3%     1 - 3 +9.6 +3.8 +7.3
  Nov 28, 2018 329   @ Tennessee Tech W 82-70 78%     2 - 3 +3.4 +4.0 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2018 80   @ Davidson L 81-99 18%     2 - 4 -9.0 +2.1 -8.6
  Dec 20, 2018 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-74 97%     3 - 4 -9.3 +5.2 -14.5
  Dec 22, 2018 146   @ Southern Illinois W 79-71 32%     4 - 4 +12.3 +9.3 +3.1
  Dec 29, 2018 283   Prairie View W 76-62 80%     5 - 4 +4.5 -1.7 +6.0
  Jan 01, 2019 19   @ Florida St. L 76-87 5%     5 - 5 +7.1 +4.8 +3.5
  Jan 05, 2019 341   @ UNC Asheville W 80-65 84%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +3.9 +2.0 +2.1
  Jan 10, 2019 211   @ Campbell W 90-86 49%     7 - 5 2 - 0 +3.7 +15.5 -11.8
  Jan 12, 2019 225   High Point W 80-63 71%     8 - 5 3 - 0 +10.5 +6.1 +4.3
  Jan 16, 2019 299   Longwood L 61-75 83%     8 - 6 3 - 1 -24.7 -18.3 -5.7
  Jan 19, 2019 336   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-72 81%     9 - 6 4 - 1 +0.2 +0.0 -0.5
  Jan 21, 2019 341   UNC Asheville W 66-45 92%     10 - 6 5 - 1 +4.5 +1.3 +8.6
  Jan 24, 2019 222   Gardner-Webb W 97-88 71%     11 - 6 6 - 1 +2.7 +8.6 -6.8
  Jan 26, 2019 217   @ Presbyterian L 91-99 50%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -8.7 +11.1 -19.6
  Feb 02, 2019 137   Radford L 61-80 49%     11 - 8 6 - 3 -19.5 -17.7 -0.6
  Feb 07, 2019 220   @ Charleston Southern W 76-72 50%     12 - 8 7 - 3 +3.2 -4.1 +7.1
  Feb 09, 2019 230   Hampton W 101-91 73%     13 - 8 8 - 3 +3.0 +10.7 -8.8
  Feb 13, 2019 217   Presbyterian W 93-85 70%     14 - 8 9 - 3 +1.9 +5.8 -4.5
  Feb 16, 2019 222   @ Gardner-Webb W 82-81 50%    
  Feb 21, 2019 137   @ Radford L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 220   Charleston Southern W 87-81 71%    
  Feb 28, 2019 230   @ Hampton W 88-87 52%    
Projected Record 16.0 - 10.0 11.0 - 5.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.7 5.3 12.9 1st
2nd 0.0 5.4 26.6 18.6 1.1 51.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 13.9 9.9 0.8 25.2 3rd
4th 2.4 4.9 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 2.3 0.2 2.5 5th
6th 0.6 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 5.9 24.4 37.3 26.1 6.4 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 83.4% 5.3    2.6 2.6 0.1
12-4 25.9% 6.7    1.1 4.0 1.6 0.0
11-5 2.2% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 12.9% 12.9 3.7 6.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 6.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.7
12-4 26.1% 22.5% 22.5% 14.8 0.0 1.3 4.1 0.4 20.2
11-5 37.3% 18.2% 18.2% 15.1 0.5 4.9 1.4 30.5
10-6 24.4% 14.4% 14.4% 15.3 0.1 2.3 1.2 20.9
9-7 5.9% 12.5% 12.5% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 5.2
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 12.0 3.4 81.4 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7% 100.0% 14.0 0.8 20.5 57.5 20.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 2.7%