Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#111
Achievement Rating+6.8#99
Pace61.6#342
Improvement+0.3#151

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#103
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#255
Layup/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#26
Freethrows-2.7#307
Improvement-0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#119
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#172
Layups/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#94
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement+0.4#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.9% 34.7% 28.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.3 14.0
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.4% 98.7%
Conference Champion 37.1% 42.0% 34.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round30.8% 34.6% 28.6%
Second Round5.0% 6.8% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2018 141   @ Kent St. W 77-70 49%     1 - 0 +11.7 +7.1 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2018 81   @ Vanderbilt L 70-79 31%     1 - 1 +0.5 -1.1 +1.8
  Nov 23, 2018 345   Alcorn St. W 76-54 97%     2 - 1 +3.0 +8.5 -1.5
  Nov 25, 2018 352   Savannah St. W 82-56 98%     3 - 1 +4.7 -10.8 +12.5
  Nov 28, 2018 313   @ Navy W 76-58 83%     4 - 1 +12.1 +11.2 +3.3
  Dec 01, 2018 118   Georgia St. W 78-52 64%     5 - 1 +26.8 +12.4 +17.4
  Dec 03, 2018 104   @ Georgetown L 78-88 37%     5 - 2 -2.1 +1.6 -2.9
  Dec 11, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 79-55 96%     6 - 2 +7.4 +3.7 +5.9
  Dec 18, 2018 63   Alabama L 67-70 36%    
  Dec 21, 2018 326   Alabama St. W 75-60 93%    
  Dec 29, 2018 49   @ UCLA L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 05, 2019 236   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 09, 2019 338   @ Stetson W 77-63 91%    
  Jan 12, 2019 291   Jacksonville W 76-61 92%    
  Jan 16, 2019 337   @ Kennesaw St. W 73-59 90%    
  Jan 19, 2019 187   North Florida W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 21, 2019 319   North Alabama W 73-56 94%    
  Jan 27, 2019 291   @ Jacksonville W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 29, 2019 67   Lipscomb L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 189   NJIT W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 05, 2019 338   Stetson W 80-60 97%    
  Feb 09, 2019 236   Florida Gulf Coast W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 13, 2019 67   @ Lipscomb L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 16, 2019 319   @ North Alabama W 70-59 84%    
  Feb 23, 2019 187   @ North Florida W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 26, 2019 337   Kennesaw St. W 76-56 96%    
  Mar 01, 2019 189   @ NJIT W 68-65 62%    
Projected Record 19.9 - 7.1 12.4 - 3.6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.3 7.9 14.0 10.0 2.6 37.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 6.9 14.1 13.0 4.6 40.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.7 5.2 2.3 0.2 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 2.0 0.5 5.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.4 8.7 12.9 18.7 21.1 18.6 10.0 2.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
15-1 100.0% 10.0    8.5 1.5
14-2 75.1% 14.0    8.9 5.1 0.0
13-3 37.5% 7.9    3.2 4.3 0.4
12-4 12.2% 2.3    0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
11-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 37.1% 37.1 23.7 12.2 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.6% 54.1% 52.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 3.3%
15-1 10.0% 49.0% 48.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.3 0.8 0.0 5.1 1.0%
14-2 18.6% 40.6% 40.5% 0.1% 13.3 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.6 0.4 11.1 0.2%
13-3 21.1% 34.5% 34.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.4 0.0 13.8
12-4 18.7% 25.3% 25.3% 14.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.2 13.9
11-5 12.9% 21.7% 21.7% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.2 10.1
10-6 8.7% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 7.3
9-7 4.4% 12.2% 12.2% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 3.9
8-8 2.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.8
7-9 0.7% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.1 0.6
6-10 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 8.6 10.2 6.5 1.2 69.1 0.2%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.1 7.4 7.4 48.1 37.0