Liberty
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#99
Achievement Rating+9.1#64
Pace59.6#351
Improvement-1.4#249

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#84
First Shot+4.8#47
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#274
Layup/Dunks+1.9#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#25
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement-1.3#249

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#126
First Shot+1.3#130
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#138
Layups/Dunks-1.0#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#94
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 31.3% 25.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 56.8% 74.6% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round29.6% 31.3% 25.7%
Second Round4.7% 5.3% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2018 142   @ Kent St. W 77-70 52%     1 - 0 +11.5 +7.6 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2018 119   @ Vanderbilt L 70-79 44%     1 - 1 -2.5 -0.8 -1.4
  Nov 23, 2018 349   Alcorn St. W 76-54 98%     2 - 1 +2.5 +9.2 -2.9
  Nov 25, 2018 348   Savannah St. W 82-56 97%     3 - 1 +7.9 -10.9 +15.7
  Nov 28, 2018 301   @ Navy W 76-58 83%     4 - 1 +12.8 +12.5 +2.7
  Dec 01, 2018 131   Georgia St. W 78-52 69%     5 - 1 +26.0 +13.2 +15.8
  Dec 03, 2018 68   @ Georgetown L 78-88 32%     5 - 2 -0.1 +1.6 -0.8
  Dec 11, 2018 343   South Carolina St. W 79-55 97%     6 - 2 +6.5 +3.0 +5.7
  Dec 18, 2018 44   Alabama L 75-84 33%     6 - 3 +0.5 +4.1 -3.3
  Dec 21, 2018 320   Alabama St. W 73-55 91%     7 - 3 +7.9 +4.7 +5.4
  Dec 22, 2018 137   Austin Peay L 66-75 61%     7 - 4 -6.9 +4.4 -13.0
  Dec 29, 2018 94   @ UCLA W 73-58 38%     8 - 4 +23.0 +6.2 +17.1
  Jan 05, 2019 230   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 81-63 73%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +16.5 +19.8 -0.7
  Jan 09, 2019 335   @ Stetson W 71-53 91%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +8.4 +1.8 +8.9
  Jan 12, 2019 248   Jacksonville W 69-53 88%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +8.1 +3.3 +7.1
  Jan 16, 2019 341   @ Kennesaw St. W 62-41 93%     12 - 4 4 - 0 +9.8 -1.9 +16.1
  Jan 19, 2019 212   North Florida W 70-64 85%     13 - 4 5 - 0 +0.1 -5.7 +5.9
  Jan 21, 2019 319   North Alabama W 72-47 94%     14 - 4 6 - 0 +12.2 -1.1 +14.7
  Jan 27, 2019 248   @ Jacksonville W 69-59 76%     15 - 4 7 - 0 +7.6 +5.4 +3.6
  Jan 29, 2019 48   Lipscomb L 59-79 44%     15 - 5 7 - 1 -13.4 -5.0 -9.8
  Feb 02, 2019 197   NJIT W 77-57 82%     16 - 5 8 - 1 +15.1 +16.8 +1.5
  Feb 05, 2019 335   Stetson W 57-54 96%     17 - 5 9 - 1 -12.1 -21.3 +9.3
  Feb 09, 2019 230   Florida Gulf Coast W 74-67 87%     18 - 5 10 - 1 +0.0 +7.9 -7.0
  Feb 13, 2019 48   @ Lipscomb W 74-66 25%     19 - 5 11 - 1 +20.1 +9.8 +10.5
  Feb 16, 2019 319   @ North Alabama W 80-70 87%     20 - 5 12 - 1 +2.7 +8.9 -5.8
  Feb 23, 2019 212   @ North Florida W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 26, 2019 341   Kennesaw St. W 77-55 98%    
  Mar 01, 2019 197   @ NJIT W 65-61 65%    
Projected Record 22.3 - 5.7 14.3 - 1.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 11.8 44.7 56.8 1st
2nd 0.3 11.6 31.3 43.2 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 12.0 43.0 44.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 44.7    12.2 32.5
14-2 27.4% 11.8    1.3 10.5
13-3 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.3
12-4 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 56.8% 56.8 13.5 43.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 44.7% 33.7% 33.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 8.0 4.5 0.4 0.0 29.6 0.2%
14-2 43.0% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.1 2.8 6.6 2.0 0.1 31.4 0.0%
13-3 12.0% 23.7% 23.7% 13.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 9.2
12-4 0.3% 18.3% 18.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.6% 29.5% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 11.0 12.7 3.4 0.1 70.4 0.1%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.0% 100.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 14.0 52.9 29.9 2.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.7% 0.2% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.5% 0.0% 14.0 0.0
Lose Out 0.0%