Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.8#337
Achievement Rating-19.6#345
Pace74.1#94
Improvement+4.1#5

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#320
First Shot-6.2#319
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#150
Layup/Dunks-2.5#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#282
Freethrows-3.3#321
Improvement+3.1#8

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#341
First Shot-6.2#333
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#231
Layups/Dunks-4.3#308
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#195
Freethrows-2.1#290
Improvement+1.0#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 11.4% 4.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 37.7% 23.6% 37.8%
First Four0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2018 193   @ Missouri St. L 70-83 10%     0 - 1 -12.0 -11.0 +0.3
  Nov 14, 2018 95   @ USC L 59-95 3%     0 - 2 -27.4 -15.3 -8.9
  Nov 17, 2018 298   @ SE Louisiana L 57-69 22%     0 - 3 -16.5 -12.4 -4.4
  Nov 19, 2018 282   Robert Morris L 72-81 38%     0 - 4 -18.8 -2.0 -16.9
  Nov 23, 2018 334   VMI L 79-87 59%     0 - 5 -23.0 -12.4 -9.5
  Nov 26, 2018 309   @ Bethune-Cookman L 74-84 25%     0 - 6 -15.6 -8.8 -5.7
  Nov 28, 2018 192   @ South Florida L 71-75 10%     0 - 7 -2.9 +2.9 -5.9
  Dec 01, 2018 1   @ Duke L 49-113 0.2%    0 - 8 -37.8 -20.3 -7.9
  Dec 05, 2018 268   Western Illinois W 68-64 36%     1 - 8 -5.0 -4.4 -0.4
  Dec 08, 2018 205   Marist L 75-79 25%     1 - 9 -9.6 -0.3 -9.3
  Dec 16, 2018 43   @ Central Florida L 56-82 1%    
  Dec 18, 2018 344   UNC Asheville W 72-67 66%    
  Dec 21, 2018 302   @ Longwood L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 09, 2019 107   Liberty L 64-78 9%    
  Jan 12, 2019 68   @ Lipscomb L 70-93 2%    
  Jan 16, 2019 175   North Florida L 78-87 21%    
  Jan 19, 2019 328   @ North Alabama L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 21, 2019 240   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 72-83 16%    
  Jan 24, 2019 200   NJIT L 68-75 25%    
  Jan 27, 2019 68   Lipscomb L 73-90 6%    
  Jan 30, 2019 304   @ Jacksonville L 71-79 23%    
  Feb 02, 2019 343   Kennesaw St. W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 05, 2019 107   @ Liberty L 61-81 3%    
  Feb 13, 2019 304   Jacksonville L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 16, 2019 240   Florida Gulf Coast L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 20, 2019 200   @ NJIT L 65-78 12%    
  Feb 23, 2019 328   North Alabama W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 26, 2019 175   @ North Florida L 75-90 9%    
  Mar 01, 2019 343   @ Kennesaw St. L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 5.9 - 23.1 4.0 - 12.0





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 6.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.1 9.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 23.5 7th
8th 0.4 4.9 12.0 8.7 2.0 0.1 0.0 28.1 8th
9th 1.9 7.0 9.4 5.0 0.9 0.0 24.3 9th
Total 1.9 7.4 14.3 19.5 19.5 16.0 10.8 6.1 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 9.5% 0.0    0.0
11-5 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.0% 0.0
11-5 0.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 0.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-7 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-8 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
7-9 6.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
6-10 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-11 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-12 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.4
3-13 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.5
2-14 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
1-15 7.4% 7.4
0-16 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%