Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#67
Achievement Rating+9.3#68
Pace83.3#10
Improvement+1.6#68

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#87
First Shot+4.1#66
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#211
Layup/Dunks+2.9#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#233
Freethrows+3.0#41
Improvement+1.8#46

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#66
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#48
Layups/Dunks+4.8#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement-0.2#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.8% 55.6% 49.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 3.4% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Conference Champion 68.8% 70.9% 63.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.4% 0.3%
First Round53.3% 55.0% 49.0%
Second Round14.3% 15.8% 10.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 5.3% 3.5%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vermont (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 292   Tennessee St. W 86-79 94%     1 - 0 -3.3 -2.8 -1.6
  Nov 15, 2018 79   Belmont L 83-87 64%     1 - 1 -0.2 -3.8 +4.3
  Nov 17, 2018 101   @ SMU W 79-73 48%     2 - 1 +14.1 +1.4 +12.3
  Nov 20, 2018 26   @ TCU W 73-64 22%     3 - 1 +24.6 +5.7 +18.6
  Nov 25, 2018 278   @ Morehead St. W 87-55 85%     4 - 1 +28.5 +7.4 +19.6
  Dec 01, 2018 250   @ Middle Tennessee W 84-74 82%     5 - 1 +7.7 +12.5 -4.8
  Dec 04, 2018 79   @ Belmont L 74-76 41%     5 - 2 +7.8 -3.4 +11.4
  Dec 09, 2018 313   Navy W 107-81 95%     6 - 2 +14.1 +25.4 -12.3
  Dec 12, 2018 34   @ Louisville L 68-72 24%     6 - 3 +10.8 -0.9 +11.8
  Dec 21, 2018 109   Vermont W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 30, 2018 52   @ Clemson L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 05, 2019 291   @ Jacksonville W 85-73 86%    
  Jan 09, 2019 187   North Florida W 92-80 87%    
  Jan 12, 2019 338   Stetson W 92-69 99%    
  Jan 16, 2019 189   @ NJIT W 79-73 71%    
  Jan 21, 2019 337   Kennesaw St. W 87-64 98%    
  Jan 24, 2019 236   Florida Gulf Coast W 88-73 92%    
  Jan 27, 2019 338   @ Stetson W 89-72 94%    
  Jan 29, 2019 111   @ Liberty W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 02, 2019 319   North Alabama W 84-64 97%    
  Feb 06, 2019 187   @ North Florida W 89-83 71%    
  Feb 09, 2019 291   Jacksonville W 88-70 94%    
  Feb 13, 2019 111   Liberty W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 16, 2019 337   @ Kennesaw St. W 84-67 94%    
  Feb 20, 2019 236   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 85-76 80%    
  Feb 26, 2019 189   NJIT W 82-70 87%    
  Mar 01, 2019 319   @ North Alabama W 81-67 90%    
Projected Record 20.6 - 6.4 13.6 - 2.4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.9 10.9 21.8 22.8 10.1 68.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 8.3 8.1 3.2 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.6 1.6 0.2 5.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.5 6.0 12.8 19.2 25.0 22.8 10.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 10.1    10.1
15-1 100.0% 22.8    21.3 1.5
14-2 87.4% 21.8    16.3 5.6 0.0
13-3 56.9% 10.9    5.8 4.7 0.4
12-4 22.8% 2.9    0.9 1.5 0.5 0.1
11-5 4.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 68.8% 68.8 54.3 13.3 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 10.1% 73.7% 69.1% 4.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 2.6 15.1%
15-1 22.8% 66.6% 64.4% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.8 6.6 4.5 0.6 0.0 7.6 6.3%
14-2 25.0% 57.1% 56.4% 0.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.8 6.1 2.3 0.1 10.7 1.6%
13-3 19.2% 47.8% 47.7% 0.2% 13.2 0.1 1.6 4.3 2.9 0.4 10.0 0.3%
12-4 12.8% 38.0% 37.9% 0.1% 13.7 0.2 1.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 8.0 0.1%
11-5 6.0% 33.1% 33.1% 14.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 4.0
10-6 2.5% 23.1% 23.1% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.9
9-7 1.1% 19.0% 19.0% 14.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
8-8 0.5% 17.4% 17.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-9 0.1% 0.1
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 53.8% 52.6% 1.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 6.5 15.8 18.2 9.3 1.9 0.1 46.2 2.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 10.7 0.4 0.9 2.2 5.8 4.4 16.4 48.4 18.2 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 32.8% 11.5 1.7 1.7 6.9 19.0 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 21.2% 11.3 6.1 6.1 6.1 3.0