UCLA
Pac-12
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#44
Achievement Rating+13.0#39
Pace76.2#56
Improvement+0.9#113

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#45
First Shot+0.6#168
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#12
Layup/Dunks+4.8#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#260
Freethrows-0.4#196
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+3.8#58
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#90
Layups/Dunks+7.0#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#306
Freethrows+4.6#7
Improvement+0.8#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.5% 10.4% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.8% 67.1% 45.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.0% 61.6% 39.4%
Average Seed 7.6 7.4 8.6
.500 or above 95.1% 97.0% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.6% 87.3% 80.2%
Conference Champion 19.5% 21.3% 14.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four5.2% 4.9% 6.1%
First Round59.1% 64.5% 42.5%
Second Round31.5% 35.2% 20.3%
Sweet Sixteen11.1% 12.6% 6.3%
Elite Eight4.0% 4.6% 2.3%
Final Four1.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 199   Purdue Fort Wayne W 96-71 92%     1 - 0 +19.7 +2.3 +13.0
  Nov 09, 2018 197   Long Beach St. W 91-80 92%     2 - 0 +5.8 +2.1 +2.0
  Nov 16, 2018 216   St. Francis (PA) W 95-58 93%     3 - 0 +30.9 +11.2 +17.9
  Nov 19, 2018 274   Presbyterian W 80-65 95%     4 - 0 +5.7 -9.0 +13.3
  Nov 22, 2018 5   Michigan St. L 67-87 22%     4 - 1 -1.7 -2.4 +1.7
  Nov 23, 2018 6   North Carolina L 78-94 23%     4 - 2 +2.1 +7.3 -4.4
  Nov 28, 2018 185   Hawaii W 80-61 91%     5 - 2 +14.6 +8.7 +6.6
  Dec 02, 2018 134   Loyola Marymount W 82-58 84%     6 - 2 +23.4 +12.1 +11.9
  Dec 08, 2018 55   Notre Dame W 65-62 66%     7 - 2 +8.9 -5.2 +14.1
  Dec 15, 2018 86   Belmont W 87-80 75%    
  Dec 19, 2018 24   @ Cincinnati L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 22, 2018 14   Ohio St. L 71-75 34%    
  Dec 29, 2018 107   Liberty W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 03, 2019 96   Stanford W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 05, 2019 178   California W 82-68 91%    
  Jan 10, 2019 33   @ Oregon L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 13, 2019 67   @ Oregon St. L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 19, 2019 95   @ USC W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 24, 2019 37   Arizona St. W 80-78 56%    
  Jan 26, 2019 40   Arizona W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 30, 2019 177   @ Washington St. W 85-77 78%    
  Feb 02, 2019 53   @ Washington L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 06, 2019 59   Colorado W 80-75 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 133   Utah W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 13, 2019 178   @ California W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 16, 2019 96   @ Stanford W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 21, 2019 67   Oregon St. W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 23, 2019 33   Oregon W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 28, 2019 95   USC W 83-75 75%    
  Mar 07, 2019 59   @ Colorado L 77-78 46%    
  Mar 09, 2019 133   @ Utah W 77-72 66%    
Projected Record 20.5 - 10.5 11.3 - 6.7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.7 5.5 3.3 1.2 0.3 19.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.2 6.6 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.0 6.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.6 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.6 12.5 14.3 14.5 13.1 10.2 6.6 3.4 1.2 0.3 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.7% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.9% 3.3    3.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 83.0% 5.5    4.0 1.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.8% 5.7    2.6 2.4 0.6 0.0
13-5 22.7% 3.0    0.7 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.5% 19.5 11.7 5.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 99.9% 37.9% 62.1% 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 3.4% 99.0% 31.5% 67.4% 3.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-3 6.6% 97.8% 28.2% 69.6% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.9%
14-4 10.2% 94.6% 22.3% 72.3% 6.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 93.0%
13-5 13.1% 89.1% 19.0% 70.1% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 86.6%
12-6 14.5% 78.2% 14.3% 64.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 74.6%
11-7 14.3% 63.5% 10.1% 53.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 59.5%
10-8 12.5% 44.6% 6.6% 38.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 40.7%
9-9 9.6% 26.0% 4.3% 21.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 22.7%
8-10 6.6% 9.5% 2.9% 6.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0 6.7%
7-11 4.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.1%
6-12 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0%
5-13 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 61.8% 13.3% 48.5% 7.6 0.2 1.1 2.7 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.7 8.1 8.9 7.6 5.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 38.2 56.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 75.8 24.2