Kentucky
Southeastern
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.9#5
Achievement Rating+22.4#7
Pace67.5#225
Improvement+8.7#1

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#10
First Shot+8.6#7
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#70
Layup/Dunks+4.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#280
Freethrows+4.0#5
Improvement+1.2#115

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#6
First Shot+6.9#19
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#2
Layups/Dunks+4.4#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#229
Freethrows+3.9#10
Improvement+7.5#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 35.4% 38.8% 16.3%
Top 4 Seed 99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.8 2.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 30.7% 34.1% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.2% 97.5% 95.5%
Sweet Sixteen75.0% 75.6% 71.5%
Elite Eight50.3% 51.4% 44.5%
Final Four27.4% 28.4% 21.6%
Championship Game13.8% 14.5% 9.9%
National Champion6.4% 6.8% 4.2%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 84.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 1   Duke L 84-118 33%     0 - 1 -9.4 +9.8 -14.5
  Nov 09, 2018 146   Southern Illinois W 71-59 96%     1 - 1 +10.9 +0.0 +11.2
  Nov 14, 2018 282   North Dakota W 96-58 99%     2 - 1 +28.5 +19.3 +8.7
  Nov 18, 2018 320   VMI W 92-82 99%     3 - 1 -2.8 +11.8 -14.7
  Nov 21, 2018 173   Winthrop W 87-74 97%     4 - 1 +9.6 -0.1 +8.2
  Nov 23, 2018 308   Tennessee St. W 77-62 99%     5 - 1 +3.6 -1.5 +4.8
  Nov 28, 2018 260   Monmouth W 90-44 99%     6 - 1 +37.5 +18.5 +19.8
  Dec 01, 2018 115   UNC Greensboro W 78-61 95%     7 - 1 +18.2 +5.8 +12.1
  Dec 08, 2018 53   Seton Hall L 83-84 85%     7 - 2 +7.9 +6.8 +1.2
  Dec 15, 2018 95   Utah W 88-61 94%     8 - 2 +29.4 +21.8 +10.7
  Dec 22, 2018 6   North Carolina W 80-72 51%     9 - 2 +27.7 +3.1 +23.4
  Dec 29, 2018 18   @ Louisville W 71-58 57%     10 - 2 +31.1 +16.8 +16.0
  Jan 05, 2019 45   @ Alabama L 75-77 77%     10 - 3 0 - 1 +10.3 +0.5 +9.9
  Jan 08, 2019 86   Texas A&M W 85-74 93%     11 - 3 1 - 1 +14.2 +11.2 +2.7
  Jan 12, 2019 117   Vanderbilt W 56-47 95%     12 - 3 2 - 1 +10.1 -1.3 +13.7
  Jan 15, 2019 111   @ Georgia W 69-49 89%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +26.8 +3.7 +24.5
  Jan 19, 2019 16   @ Auburn W 82-80 56%     14 - 3 4 - 1 +20.3 +18.3 +2.0
  Jan 22, 2019 22   Mississippi St. W 76-55 79%     15 - 3 5 - 1 +32.6 +7.3 +25.3
  Jan 26, 2019 11   Kansas W 71-63 72%     16 - 3 +21.8 +8.0 +14.0
  Jan 29, 2019 117   @ Vanderbilt W 87-52 89%     17 - 3 6 - 1 +41.5 +23.7 +20.1
  Feb 02, 2019 27   @ Florida W 65-54 66%     18 - 3 7 - 1 +26.6 +10.1 +17.7
  Feb 05, 2019 72   South Carolina W 76-48 92%     19 - 3 8 - 1 +32.0 +6.8 +25.9
  Feb 09, 2019 22   @ Mississippi St. W 71-67 61%     20 - 3 9 - 1 +21.1 +13.2 +8.3
  Feb 12, 2019 23   LSU L 71-73 79%     20 - 4 9 - 2 +9.6 +6.1 +3.4
  Feb 16, 2019 7   Tennessee W 86-69 62%     21 - 4 10 - 2 +33.8 +20.6 +13.8
  Feb 19, 2019 87   @ Missouri W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 16   Auburn W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 26, 2019 59   Arkansas W 81-66 92%    
  Mar 02, 2019 7   @ Tennessee L 74-76 41%    
  Mar 05, 2019 39   @ Mississippi W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 09, 2019 27   Florida W 69-59 83%    
Projected Record 25.5 - 5.5 14.5 - 3.5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 14.4 14.5 30.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 14.7 19.5 1.0 37.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 10.9 14.2 2.9 30.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.1 13.4 30.7 36.8 15.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 93.4% 14.5    8.9 5.4 0.3
15-3 39.1% 14.4    2.9 7.5 4.0
14-4 5.9% 1.8    0.1 0.7 1.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 30.7% 30.7 11.8 13.6 5.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 15.6% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.1 13.3 2.2 0.1 100.0%
15-3 36.8% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.6 17.1 18.1 1.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 30.7% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 2.1 4.6 20.0 5.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 2.5 0.4 6.9 5.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 3.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 0.5% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 3.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.8 35.4 48.0 14.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.5% 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.8 19.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0% 100.0% 1.3 75.6 23.2 1.2