Davidson
Atlantic 10
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#79
Achievement Rating+9.7#58
Pace63.3#317
Improvement-0.7#221

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#97
First Shot+6.1#29
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#350
Layup/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#11
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement+0.1#188

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#80
First Shot+3.1#79
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#134
Layups/Dunks+3.7#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#162
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#268
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement-0.8#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 25.7% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 5.5% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.8 11.7 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 42.1% 55.0% 23.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 3.9% 0.6%
First Round21.0% 23.5% 17.3%
Second Round4.5% 5.3% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Home) - 59.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 306   Cleveland St. W 83-63 94%     1 - 0 +8.8 +4.3 +4.8
  Nov 09, 2018 203   Dartmouth W 79-76 86%     2 - 0 -2.2 +4.5 -6.6
  Nov 15, 2018 112   Wichita St. W 57-53 58%     3 - 0 +8.1 -10.4 +18.6
  Nov 16, 2018 10   Purdue L 58-79 17%     3 - 1 -4.4 -5.1 -1.1
  Nov 18, 2018 101   Northeastern W 71-59 55%     4 - 1 +16.9 +1.6 +15.8
  Nov 24, 2018 101   Northeastern W 78-69 66%     5 - 1 +11.1 +4.3 +6.8
  Nov 27, 2018 287   Charlotte W 76-56 93%     6 - 1 +10.1 +10.4 +2.0
  Dec 01, 2018 252   @ UNC Wilmington W 91-85 80%     7 - 1 +3.3 +12.2 -8.9
  Dec 04, 2018 177   Winthrop W 99-81 82%     8 - 1 +14.4 +9.1 +2.9
  Dec 15, 2018 70   Temple L 75-77 47%     8 - 2 +5.0 +3.0 +2.1
  Dec 17, 2018 176   @ Wake Forest L 63-67 66%     8 - 3 -1.9 -4.0 +1.7
  Dec 29, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 60-82 7%     8 - 4 +0.5 -8.9 +11.4
  Jan 05, 2019 152   Duquesne W 65-61 79%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +1.9 -2.0 +4.3
  Jan 09, 2019 139   @ George Mason W 61-56 56%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +9.6 -8.2 +17.8
  Jan 12, 2019 47   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-57 49%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +13.6 +3.5 +10.6
  Jan 15, 2019 182   @ Saint Joseph's L 60-61 68%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +0.4 -6.9 +7.2
  Jan 19, 2019 179   Richmond W 75-62 83%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +9.1 +5.4 +5.1
  Jan 23, 2019 256   George Washington W 73-62 91%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +2.7 -1.5 +4.2
  Jan 26, 2019 121   @ Saint Louis W 54-53 50%     14 - 5 6 - 1 +7.2 +0.5 +7.0
  Feb 01, 2019 133   @ St. Bonaventure W 75-66 55%     15 - 5 7 - 1 +14.0 +17.2 -2.0
  Feb 06, 2019 140   Rhode Island W 68-53 76%     16 - 5 8 - 1 +14.0 +6.8 +9.4
  Feb 09, 2019 190   @ Massachusetts L 51-54 70%     16 - 6 8 - 2 -2.1 -7.2 +4.3
  Feb 12, 2019 226   @ Fordham W 79-69 76%     17 - 6 9 - 2 +8.8 +11.1 -1.7
  Feb 15, 2019 182   Saint Joseph's W 80-72 83%     18 - 6 10 - 2 +3.9 +5.6 -1.6
  Feb 19, 2019 72   Dayton W 68-66 59%    
  Feb 22, 2019 140   @ Rhode Island W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 27, 2019 198   @ La Salle W 71-65 70%    
  Mar 02, 2019 226   Fordham W 71-58 89%    
  Mar 06, 2019 133   St. Bonaventure W 67-60 74%    
  Mar 09, 2019 179   @ Richmond W 71-66 66%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 7.9 14.1 - 3.9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 9.4 19.8 11.8 42.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 14.9 22.1 8.9 48.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.6 3.3 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.5 7.1 19.5 31.4 28.7 11.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 11.8    8.1 3.7
15-3 69.0% 19.8    8.5 11.3
14-4 29.7% 9.4    2.0 6.1 1.2 0.1
13-5 6.1% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 42.1% 42.1 18.7 21.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 11.8% 39.4% 25.5% 14.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.1 18.7%
15-3 28.7% 26.0% 22.6% 3.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.5 1.1 0.0 21.2 4.4%
14-4 31.4% 19.8% 19.3% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 25.2 0.6%
13-5 19.5% 15.9% 15.8% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 16.4 0.0%
12-6 7.1% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.0%
11-7 1.5% 7.7% 7.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-8 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.4% 19.6% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 5.6 9.6 5.0 0.5 0.0 77.6 3.5%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 10.6 0.3 2.5 4.5 6.8 22.6 44.4 17.9 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9% 28.3% 11.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 8.5 14.0 3.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2% 17.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.5 8.5 3.1 0.3
Lose Out 0.0%