Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
132 Radford 31.5%   15   0 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 5 +2.0      +2.3 99 -0.4 171 62.7 332 -6.0 258 0.0 1
144 Winthrop 26.8%   2 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.2      +0.3 163 +0.9 138 71.7 128 +6.8 88 0.0 1
184 Gardner-Webb 15.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 6 -1.4      -1.3 219 -0.2 164 68.0 233 -6.9 266 0.0 1
240 Longwood 7.7%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 -4.2      +1.8 121 -6.0 326 67.6 242 -2.8 221 0.0 1
261 Hampton 6.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -5.2      -0.5 189 -4.8 305 76.0 57 -10.3 300 0.0 1
277 UNC Asheville 4.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -6.1      -1.3 220 -4.7 304 68.0 228 +0.1 178 0.0 1
289 Campbell 3.5%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -7.0      -2.1 244 -4.9 310 61.9 338 -0.7 189 0.0 1
293 Charleston Southern 3.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 10 -7.5      -5.8 320 -1.7 212 71.6 130 -17.1 343 0.0 1
321 High Point 0.9%   0 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 12 -10.6      -8.7 342 -1.8 216 67.3 252 -11.7 312 0.0 1
337 Presbyterian 0.5%   1 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -11.7      -4.0 290 -7.7 344 66.9 260 -7.5 270 0.0 1
341 South Carolina Upstate 0.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 14 -13.2      -6.6 331 -6.7 335 70.4 162 -15.4 336 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Radford 2.4 42.8 23.0 13.7 8.7 5.3 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
Winthrop 2.6 34.7 24.4 16.0 10.4 6.7 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Gardner-Webb 3.6 18.8 19.4 17.8 14.6 11.0 7.7 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3
Longwood 4.6 9.2 13.1 15.5 15.3 13.6 11.4 8.6 6.1 4.0 2.2 1.0
Hampton 5.6 5.6 8.2 10.4 11.9 13.0 13.1 12.1 10.3 7.7 5.0 2.7
UNC Asheville 5.5 4.9 8.1 11.1 13.1 14.4 13.6 11.8 9.6 6.7 4.3 2.5
Campbell 6.6 2.7 4.7 6.8 8.9 11.0 12.8 13.9 13.7 11.7 8.7 5.1
Charleston Southern 6.2 3.0 5.9 8.6 10.7 12.4 13.3 13.1 11.9 9.6 7.0 4.3
High Point 8.0 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.5 9.3 12.6 15.3 17.5 16.2 13.6
Presbyterian 8.6 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.6 10.3 14.0 18.0 22.0 19.2
South Carolina Upstate 9.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.6 7.3 11.0 16.4 23.3 31.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Radford 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.6 8.0 11.1 13.7 15.8 15.1 12.5 7.9 2.9
Winthrop 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.9 9.9 12.7 14.6 15.5 14.0 9.9 5.6 1.7
Gardner-Webb 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.8 8.4 10.8 12.7 13.9 13.4 11.4 8.3 5.0 2.2 0.5
Longwood 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.8 6.7 9.2 11.5 12.7 13.0 12.2 9.9 7.2 4.5 2.2 0.8 0.2
Hampton 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.0 8.3 10.1 11.5 12.1 11.7 10.3 8.4 6.1 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
UNC Asheville 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.1 11.9 12.5 12.7 11.1 8.9 6.4 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Campbell 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.2 6.5 9.2 11.2 12.5 12.4 11.5 9.5 7.5 5.4 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.8 9.9 11.4 12.4 12.1 10.8 8.8 6.9 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
High Point 6 - 12 0.6 2.5 5.8 9.1 12.1 13.7 13.7 12.6 10.3 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Presbyterian 5 - 13 1.3 4.4 8.5 12.3 14.6 14.9 13.3 10.6 7.9 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 4 - 14 2.9 8.2 12.7 15.3 15.5 13.9 11.2 8.0 5.3 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Radford 42.8% 31.2 9.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Winthrop 34.7% 24.1 8.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 18.8% 11.6 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Longwood 9.2% 5.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Hampton 5.6% 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville 4.9% 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Charleston Southern 3.0% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
High Point 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Presbyterian 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Radford 31.5% 31.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.9 6.6 8.8 7.9 4.5 68.5 0.1%
Winthrop 26.8% 26.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 7.1 8.3 6.0 1.9 73.2 0.1%
Gardner-Webb 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 5.1 5.9 84.7 0.0%
Longwood 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.3 92.3 0.0%
Hampton 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 94.0 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 95.4 0.0%
Campbell 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 96.5 0.0%
Charleston Southern 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 97.0 0.0%
High Point 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Radford 31.5% 1.6% 30.8% 3.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 26.8% 0.6% 26.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 15.3% 2.9% 14.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 7.7% 2.6% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 6.0% 1.8% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.6% 1.9% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 3.5% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 3.0% 1.5% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.8% 0.9 7.2 92.8 0.0
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0