Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
127 Winthrop 47.2%   15   12 - 7 8 - 0 20 - 9 16 - 2 +2.3      +1.5 133 +0.8 141 76.6 32 +1.9 139 +9.9 1
169 Radford 27.4%   9 - 9 6 - 2 16 - 12 13 - 5 -0.4      +1.5 135 -1.9 224 61.9 335 -0.3 174 -0.3 2
248 Gardner-Webb 6.8%   5 - 12 3 - 4 11 - 17 9 - 9 -5.0      -1.0 205 -3.9 287 65.9 267 -8.0 294 -9.0 6
272 UNC Asheville 4.1%   7 - 10 3 - 5 12 - 15 8 - 10 -6.1      -2.0 234 -4.1 290 74.6 60 -7.4 288 -10.9 8
273 Charleston Southern 5.5%   9 - 9 5 - 3 14 - 14 10 - 8 -6.2      -2.8 254 -3.4 275 67.9 227 -4.5 239 -5.6 5
274 Campbell 3.2%   9 - 9 2 - 6 14 - 14 7 - 11 -6.5      -4.0 289 -2.5 238 65.2 287 -4.5 238 -12.1 9
307 Hampton 2.1%   6 - 11 4 - 3 11 - 17 9 - 9 -8.7      +1.1 150 -9.8 348 76.0 37 -6.8 276 -3.8 4
315 Longwood 1.3%   5 - 14 2 - 6 9 - 20 6 - 12 -9.3      -6.1 323 -3.2 265 70.6 138 -12.5 334 -13.7 11
319 South Carolina Upstate 1.0%   6 - 13 3 - 5 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.7      -4.8 303 -4.9 314 70.4 141 -8.3 297 -9.3 7
326 Presbyterian 1.4%   6 - 13 5 - 3 10 - 19 9 - 9 -10.1      -4.1 290 -6.1 330 67.3 240 -8.7 303 -2.2 3
342 High Point 0.1%   3 - 16 2 - 6 6 - 23 5 - 13 -13.5      -5.3 312 -8.2 343 63.9 311 -12.6 336 -12.2 10






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Winthrop 1.1 93.8 6.0 0.2 0.0
Radford 2.0 13.4 76.2 7.6 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gardner-Webb 4.9 0.1 5.1 24.3 20.2 15.7 12.8 9.2 6.2 4.1 1.7 0.6
UNC Asheville 5.8 1.5 12.5 16.4 17.9 15.9 12.9 11.0 7.1 3.8 1.1
Charleston Southern 3.9 0.5 11.7 39.0 20.8 12.1 7.6 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Campbell 7.3 0.3 3.8 7.4 10.6 13.3 15.2 17.0 15.3 11.8 5.3
Hampton 5.5 0.1 3.4 16.1 17.9 16.4 15.0 11.8 9.4 6.2 2.9 0.9
Longwood 8.3 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.3 6.3 8.4 11.5 14.8 19.2 22.3 12.8
South Carolina Upstate 7.6 0.3 3.1 6.1 9.2 12.0 14.0 17.2 17.5 14.3 6.2
Presbyterian 5.3 0.1 3.0 16.4 19.4 18.4 16.0 11.1 8.4 4.7 2.0 0.3
High Point 9.9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.8 13.2 23.4 48.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Winthrop 16 - 2 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.0 8.6 18.6 28.1 27.8 13.0
Radford 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.9 8.1 16.6 26.0 25.8 15.6 4.0
Gardner-Webb 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.1 10.7 18.4 21.0 20.1 13.4 7.1 1.9 0.3
UNC Asheville 8 - 10 0.1 0.9 3.4 9.7 17.4 22.6 22.5 14.9 6.7 1.7 0.1
Charleston Southern 10 - 8 0.2 1.1 4.4 11.4 18.3 23.3 20.6 13.0 6.1 1.5 0.2
Campbell 7 - 11 0.1 1.2 4.6 10.8 19.9 23.6 20.3 12.8 5.2 1.2 0.2
Hampton 9 - 9 0.6 2.8 8.4 15.5 21.2 21.3 16.0 8.9 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Longwood 6 - 12 0.7 4.1 10.9 19.4 22.7 20.2 13.6 5.9 1.9 0.4 0.1
South Carolina Upstate 7 - 11 1.2 6.0 13.2 21.9 23.0 18.8 10.2 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Presbyterian 9 - 9 1.4 6.5 15.1 21.6 23.6 17.6 9.4 3.6 1.0 0.1
High Point 5 - 13 5.4 16.1 26.1 24.6 16.3 7.8 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Winthrop 93.8% 86.0 7.5 0.2 0.0
Radford 13.4% 6.0 7.2 0.2 0.0
Gardner-Webb 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNC Asheville
Charleston Southern 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell
Hampton 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
Longwood 0.0% 0.0
South Carolina Upstate
Presbyterian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
High Point


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Winthrop 47.2% 47.2% 0.0% 15   0.1 3.0 13.3 18.9 10.7 1.3 52.8 0.0%
Radford 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.9 12.6 4.2 72.6 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 6.2 93.2 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.2 3.9 95.9 0.0%
Charleston Southern 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 4.7 94.5 0.0%
Campbell 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.1 96.8 0.0%
Hampton 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Longwood 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%
High Point 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Winthrop 47.2% 0.1% 47.1% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Radford 27.4% 1.0% 26.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 6.8% 5.3% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 4.1% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 5.5% 3.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.7% 0.9 10.3 89.7
2nd Round 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0