Radford
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#140
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#138
Pace62.4#331
Improvement-1.3#233

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#98
First Shot+1.1#138
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#71
Layup/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#140
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement-1.4#254

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#194
First Shot+0.2#149
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#285
Layups/Dunks+3.5#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#266
Freethrows-0.4#203
Improvement+0.1#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.1% 38.1% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 98.0% 98.9% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 54.1% 58.2% 38.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.7%
First Round36.9% 37.9% 32.9%
Second Round3.5% 3.9% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 32 - 34 - 8
Quad 416 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 59   @ Liberty L 60-66 17%     0 - 1 +5.5 +3.0 +1.7
  Nov 15, 2019 133   @ Georgia Southern L 73-76 37%     0 - 2 +1.9 +1.8 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2019 109   @ Northwestern W 67-56 30%     1 - 2 +18.1 +1.3 +17.2
  Nov 22, 2019 90   @ Bradley L 61-70 25%     1 - 3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2019 214   @ Monmouth L 63-80 57%     1 - 4 -17.3 -7.0 -10.5
  Dec 04, 2019 269   James Madison W 94-71 84%     2 - 4 +14.1 +16.3 -1.9
  Dec 07, 2019 84   UNC Greensboro L 58-60 42%     2 - 5 +1.6 -1.2 +2.5
  Dec 14, 2019 89   Duquesne L 49-71 34%     2 - 6 -16.2 -16.2 -1.7
  Dec 18, 2019 49   @ Mississippi St. L 68-77 15%     2 - 7 +3.6 +12.3 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2019 85   Richmond W 73-58 32%     3 - 7 +21.5 +6.1 +16.1
  Jan 04, 2020 342   High Point W 73-62 94%     4 - 7 1 - 0 -5.0 +2.5 -5.9
  Jan 08, 2020 231   @ Gardner-Webb W 67-64 60%     5 - 7 2 - 0 +1.9 +0.7 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2020 261   Campbell W 68-63 83%     6 - 7 3 - 0 -3.6 -4.6 +1.3
  Jan 16, 2020 311   @ South Carolina Upstate W 63-59 78%     7 - 7 4 - 0 -2.4 -5.8 +3.9
  Jan 18, 2020 324   @ Presbyterian W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 20, 2020 141   Winthrop W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 23, 2020 267   @ UNC Asheville W 74-69 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 329   Hampton W 82-67 92%    
  Jan 30, 2020 318   @ Longwood W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 01, 2020 301   Charleston Southern W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 08, 2020 342   @ High Point W 72-60 86%    
  Feb 10, 2020 141   @ Winthrop L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 13, 2020 324   Presbyterian W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 15, 2020 261   @ Campbell W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 20, 2020 267   UNC Asheville W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 22, 2020 311   South Carolina Upstate W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 27, 2020 329   @ Hampton W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 29, 2020 231   Gardner-Webb W 71-63 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.3 12.9 18.0 12.6 4.0 54.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 4.5 10.0 13.0 9.4 2.5 40.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 6.3 11.8 18.4 22.3 20.5 12.6 4.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-1 100.0% 12.6    11.8 0.8
16-2 87.8% 18.0    13.6 4.4
15-3 57.7% 12.9    7.4 5.4 0.0
14-4 28.9% 5.3    2.4 2.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.2% 1.2    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.1% 54.1 39.6 14.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.0% 52.2% 52.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.9
17-1 12.6% 47.8% 47.8% 13.2 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.6 0.1 6.6
16-2 20.5% 42.9% 42.9% 13.7 0.3 3.3 4.4 0.9 0.0 11.7
15-3 22.3% 37.9% 37.9% 14.1 0.0 1.5 4.4 2.5 0.1 13.8
14-4 18.4% 33.4% 33.4% 14.5 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.3 12.3
13-5 11.8% 28.1% 28.1% 14.9 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.6 8.5
12-6 6.3% 23.3% 23.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.5 4.8
11-7 2.7% 22.1% 22.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.1
10-8 1.0% 16.4% 16.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
9-9 0.4% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.1% 37.1% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 9.2 13.7 9.7 2.0 62.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.3 0.3 0.4 5.5 59.0 31.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%