Radford
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#108
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#133
Pace62.7#334
Improvement+1.0#60

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#100
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#135
Layup/Dunks-1.8#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#185
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+0.3#116

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot+1.1#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#194
Layups/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#127
Freethrows-1.1#243
Improvement+0.7#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.2% 44.9% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 13.0 13.8
.500 or above 93.4% 97.5% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.1% 97.5%
Conference Champion 52.9% 59.7% 47.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.7%
First Round38.9% 44.6% 34.8%
Second Round6.1% 8.3% 4.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.3% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bradley (Away) - 42.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 415 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 85   @ Liberty L 60-66 29%     0 - 1 +3.1 +0.2 +2.0
  Nov 15, 2019 111   @ Georgia Southern L 73-76 39%     0 - 2 +3.3 +1.2 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2019 136   @ Northwestern W 67-56 45%     1 - 2 +15.8 +2.0 +14.2
  Nov 22, 2019 123   @ Bradley L 63-65 42%    
  Nov 26, 2019 269   @ Monmouth W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 04, 2019 219   James Madison W 81-71 82%    
  Dec 07, 2019 90   UNC Greensboro W 64-63 53%    
  Dec 14, 2019 96   Duquesne L 68-69 45%    
  Dec 18, 2019 50   @ Mississippi St. L 61-70 21%    
  Dec 22, 2019 105   Richmond L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 04, 2020 329   High Point W 73-55 94%    
  Jan 08, 2020 197   @ Gardner-Webb W 68-65 59%    
  Jan 11, 2020 262   Campbell W 73-61 85%    
  Jan 16, 2020 342   @ South Carolina Upstate W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 18, 2020 318   @ Presbyterian W 72-61 83%    
  Jan 20, 2020 145   Winthrop W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 23, 2020 278   @ UNC Asheville W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 25, 2020 257   Hampton W 79-67 84%    
  Jan 30, 2020 253   @ Longwood W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 01, 2020 304   Charleston Southern W 74-59 91%    
  Feb 08, 2020 329   @ High Point W 70-58 84%    
  Feb 10, 2020 145   @ Winthrop L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 13, 2020 318   Presbyterian W 75-58 92%    
  Feb 15, 2020 262   @ Campbell W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 20, 2020 278   UNC Asheville W 76-63 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 342   South Carolina Upstate W 78-58 96%    
  Feb 27, 2020 257   @ Hampton W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 197   Gardner-Webb W 71-62 77%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.1 7.1 13.3 14.4 11.3 4.6 52.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.7 7.6 4.1 0.9 0.0 22.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.3 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.6 3rd
4th 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.7 6.0 9.3 12.7 15.7 17.4 15.3 11.3 4.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.6    4.6
17-1 100.0% 11.3    11.0 0.3
16-2 94.0% 14.4    12.2 2.2 0.0
15-3 76.0% 13.3    9.0 4.0 0.3
14-4 45.0% 7.1    3.2 3.1 0.8 0.0
13-5 16.6% 2.1    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.9% 52.9 40.5 10.6 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.6% 70.6% 67.8% 2.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.4 8.6%
17-1 11.3% 62.2% 61.9% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.7 1.0 0.1 4.3 0.7%
16-2 15.3% 51.7% 51.6% 0.1% 13.1 0.1 1.7 3.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.4 0.2%
15-3 17.4% 44.2% 44.2% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.9 2.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 9.7 0.0%
14-4 15.7% 35.6% 35.6% 14.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.5 0.1 10.1
13-5 12.7% 29.2% 29.2% 14.5 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.3 9.0
12-6 9.3% 22.4% 22.4% 14.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 7.2
11-7 6.0% 18.9% 18.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 4.9
10-8 3.7% 13.8% 13.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.2
9-9 2.1% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 1.9
8-10 1.0% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.5% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.2% 39.0% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 6.7 11.6 10.9 6.4 1.7 60.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.1 5.3 21.8 17.3 21.8 12.8 3.8 9.8 1.5 1.5 3.8 0.8