Ivy League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Harvard 38.2%   13   2 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 8 10 - 4 +6.1      +3.1 87 +3.0 86 68.1 223 +1.3 160 0.0 1
109 Penn 22.9%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 10 9 - 5 +3.7      +0.4 165 +3.3 78 74.0 87 +7.4 76 0.0 1
137 Yale 13.4%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 6 +1.6      +1.6 130 -0.1 159 75.2 68 +3.6 128 0.0 1
168 Columbia 7.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 7 -0.5      -1.3 220 +0.8 143 69.1 193 -9.1 284 0.0 1
175 Dartmouth 8.0%   2 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 7 -0.9      -1.9 234 +1.0 136 65.7 288 +15.0 29 0.0 1
184 Brown 7.0%   3 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 6 - 8 -1.4      -2.2 249 +0.8 142 75.9 60 +7.6 72 0.0 1
209 Princeton 4.1%   0 - 3 0 - 0 9 - 17 6 - 8 -2.7      -0.7 202 -1.9 224 68.0 229 -14.6 328 0.0 1
269 Cornell 1.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 8 - 18 4 - 10 -5.6      -2.5 253 -3.1 270 69.0 197 -12.1 311 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Harvard 2.1 47.4 22.8 13.2 7.9 4.1 2.7 1.3 0.6
Penn 2.9 28.0 24.0 17.2 11.6 8.6 5.6 3.5 1.4
Yale 3.6 17.8 18.3 16.9 15.0 12.4 8.9 6.9 3.7
Columbia 4.4 8.9 12.4 15.0 15.8 15.6 14.2 11.0 7.1
Dartmouth 4.5 9.2 11.4 13.6 15.1 15.2 14.1 12.8 8.5
Brown 4.7 6.5 10.4 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.1 13.3 9.8
Princeton 5.3 4.2 7.3 10.3 13.6 14.6 16.6 18.3 15.2
Cornell 6.3 1.4 3.1 5.7 7.5 10.7 16.6 22.1 32.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Harvard 10 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 6.9 11.1 13.8 16.9 16.5 14.9 8.8 3.7
Penn 9 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 5.3 7.8 11.0 14.2 15.2 15.4 12.5 8.5 4.2 1.3
Yale 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 5.3 8.4 12.5 13.9 14.6 13.2 11.0 8.9 4.8 1.9 0.4
Columbia 7 - 7 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.9 9.2 13.2 14.4 15.1 12.9 10.9 7.4 4.2 2.0 0.5 0.1
Dartmouth 7 - 7 0.3 1.3 3.5 7.3 10.0 13.2 14.3 14.4 12.1 9.8 7.2 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.1
Brown 6 - 8 0.3 1.7 4.1 7.8 10.7 14.4 15.0 14.2 12.2 9.3 5.5 2.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
Princeton 6 - 8 0.9 2.9 6.1 11.2 14.0 14.8 14.2 13.4 9.4 6.5 3.9 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.1
Cornell 4 - 10 3.4 8.1 13.3 16.8 16.2 14.3 11.1 7.6 4.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Harvard 47.4% 34.4 10.6 2.2 0.2 0.1
Penn 28.0% 18.4 7.8 1.7 0.1
Yale 17.8% 11.1 5.0 1.6 0.2 0.1
Columbia 8.9% 4.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 9.2% 5.1 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
Brown 6.5% 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.1
Princeton 4.2% 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cornell 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Harvard 38.2% 37.0% 1.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 4.0 11.8 10.6 6.1 2.2 0.3 61.8 1.8%
Penn 22.9% 22.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.3 6.9 6.5 4.2 1.4 0.3 77.1 1.1%
Yale 13.4% 13.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.7 3.5 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.2 86.6 0.4%
Columbia 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.3 2.2 1.0 92.4 0.0%
Dartmouth 8.0% 7.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 2.2 1.6 0.4 92.0 0.1%
Brown 7.0% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.3 0.3 93.0 0.1%
Princeton 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.0 95.9 0.0%
Cornell 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 98.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Harvard 38.2% 0.9% 37.8% 9.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Penn 22.9% 0.6% 22.6% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Yale 13.4% 0.3% 13.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 7.6% 0.4% 7.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 8.0% 0.2% 7.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 7.0% 0.1% 7.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 4.1% 0.5% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5 0.0
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 97.9 1.7
2nd Round 18.4% 0.2 81.6 18.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0