Ivy League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
71 Yale 48.3%   12   12 - 4 2 - 0 21 - 7 11 - 3 +7.4      +1.3 140 +6.1 38 66.8 247 +9.8 47 +13.3 3
97 Harvard 30.8%   12 - 4 2 - 0 20 - 8 10 - 4 +5.1      +2.7 102 +2.5 101 69.9 154 +7.6 76 +13.4 2
139 Penn 8.7%   7 - 7 0 - 2 14 - 12 7 - 7 +1.7      +1.1 149 +0.6 148 73.5 72 +1.6 142 -16.7 8
178 Princeton 7.3%   6 - 8 2 - 0 12 - 14 8 - 6 -0.7      +1.4 138 -2.2 229 66.0 264 -2.1 201 +17.7 1
201 Dartmouth 2.2%   6 - 10 0 - 2 11 - 17 5 - 9 -2.5      -3.3 271 +0.7 144 65.7 276 -5.1 247 -10.8 7
202 Brown 2.6%   6 - 8 0 - 2 12 - 14 6 - 8 -2.6      -2.0 235 -0.6 180 73.6 70 -2.1 199 -8.5 6
255 Columbia 0.8%   5 - 12 1 - 1 8 - 21 4 - 10 -5.3      -4.3 293 -1.1 198 70.8 134 -10.0 313 -6.9 5
285 Cornell 0.3%   2 - 11 1 - 1 5 - 21 4 - 10 -6.9      -3.5 277 -3.4 271 63.6 316 -13.4 338 -5.3 4






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Yale 1.5 66.2 24.9 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Harvard 1.9 40.0 39.3 12.9 5.6 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Penn 4.1 3.2 10.8 24.3 27.7 16.8 9.7 5.0 2.5
Princeton 3.3 9.1 19.6 32.4 19.9 11.0 5.0 2.2 0.8
Dartmouth 5.3 0.4 2.9 12.0 16.2 22.6 20.8 14.0 11.1
Brown 5.2 0.6 4.1 12.9 17.3 21.6 19.8 12.9 10.8
Columbia 6.1 0.2 1.4 5.2 9.2 15.8 22.5 26.8 19.0
Cornell 6.5 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.0 12.5 19.0 28.2 30.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Yale 11 - 3 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.9 8.3 16.0 22.3 24.8 17.0 5.9
Harvard 10 - 4 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.1 9.5 15.0 20.9 22.1 16.9 7.9 1.7
Penn 7 - 7 0.2 0.7 2.6 5.8 11.6 18.1 20.1 18.6 13.3 6.8 1.9 0.3
Princeton 8 - 6 0.0 0.6 2.6 6.3 12.3 17.3 19.6 17.6 13.4 6.9 2.9 0.5 0.1
Dartmouth 5 - 9 0.2 1.4 4.0 10.0 16.1 19.9 19.9 14.0 9.0 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
Brown 6 - 8 0.2 1.4 4.2 9.4 14.2 19.6 18.9 14.9 10.4 4.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
Columbia 4 - 10 2.7 10.3 19.2 21.6 20.0 13.6 7.4 3.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Cornell 4 - 10 5.4 16.5 21.8 22.5 16.7 10.1 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Yale 66.2% 50.9 13.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Harvard 40.0% 25.8 12.6 1.4 0.1 0.0
Penn 3.2% 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Princeton 9.1% 4.0 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Dartmouth 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Brown 0.6% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Columbia 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cornell 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Yale 48.3% 47.5% 0.8% 12   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 6.4 26.8 10.3 1.7 0.1 51.7 1.5%
Harvard 30.8% 30.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 12.9 11.3 4.2 0.5 0.0 69.2 0.2%
Penn 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 4.0 2.2 0.5 91.3 0.0%
Princeton 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.9 1.9 92.7 0.0%
Dartmouth 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 97.8 0.0%
Brown 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.3 97.4 0.0%
Columbia 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Cornell 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Yale 48.3% 0.7% 48.0% 13.7% 4.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Harvard 30.8% 0.1% 30.7% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn 8.7% 0.0% 8.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 7.3% 0.7% 7.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth 2.2% 0.4% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brown 2.6% 0.1% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.1 0.9
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 98.6 0.6
2nd Round 21.2% 0.2 78.8 21.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0