Harvard
Ivy League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.4#102
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#202
Pace68.1#227
Improvement-0.8#285

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#96
First Shot-0.5#188
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#41
Layup/Dunks-0.9#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#127
Freethrows-0.8#209
Improvement-1.1#320

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#118
First Shot+0.8#147
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#120
Layups/Dunks+2.7#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#217
Freethrows+1.3#125
Improvement+0.4#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 31.3% 24.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.9
.500 or above 85.7% 88.7% 68.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 88.0% 79.8%
Conference Champion 39.8% 41.8% 27.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.8% 4.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.3%
First Round30.0% 31.1% 23.7%
Second Round6.1% 6.5% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 36 - 58 - 9
Quad 49 - 117 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 147   @ Northeastern L 79-84 52%     0 - 1 -1.0 +8.1 -9.3
  Nov 10, 2019 305   Maine W 67-46 93%     1 - 1 +8.7 -3.5 +14.9
  Nov 14, 2019 182   Siena W 59-56 79%     2 - 1 -1.1 -14.2 +13.1
  Nov 16, 2019 104   Buffalo L 76-88 52%     2 - 2 -8.0 -1.6 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2019 314   @ Holy Cross W 75-64 85%    
  Nov 28, 2019 93   Texas A&M L 69-70 47%    
  Dec 07, 2019 167   Massachusetts W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 21, 2019 258   @ George Washington W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 22, 2019 346   @ Howard W 85-69 92%    
  Dec 29, 2019 121   @ California L 70-71 44%    
  Dec 30, 2019 98   @ San Francisco L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 04, 2020 95   UC Irvine W 70-68 60%    
  Jan 18, 2020 200   Dartmouth W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 25, 2020 200   @ Dartmouth W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 31, 2020 107   @ Penn L 69-71 46%    
  Feb 01, 2020 208   @ Princeton W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 07, 2020 126   @ Yale L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 186   @ Brown W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 14, 2020 270   Cornell W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 15, 2020 166   Columbia W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 21, 2020 208   Princeton W 75-65 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 107   Penn W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 28, 2020 166   @ Columbia W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 270   @ Cornell W 74-67 74%    
  Mar 06, 2020 186   Brown W 77-68 78%    
  Mar 07, 2020 126   Yale W 75-70 65%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 9 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 7.0 13.0 9.4 7.0 2.0 39.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 6.3 8.7 3.0 0.6 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.6 4.4 1.3 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.6 2.9 0.5 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.5 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 8th
Total 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.4 6.2 9.8 12.4 12.4 17.0 16.1 10.0 7.0 2.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
13-1 100.0% 7.0    7.0 0.0
12-2 93.9% 9.4    8.1 1.2 0.1
11-3 80.5% 13.0    8.4 3.9 0.7
10-4 41.0% 7.0    2.5 3.4 1.0 0.1
9-5 9.9% 1.2    0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1
8-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
7-7 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 28.2 8.7 2.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 2.0% 71.9% 62.3% 9.6% 10.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.6 25.5%
13-1 7.0% 61.2% 58.4% 2.8% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.3 2.7 6.7%
12-2 10.0% 53.8% 53.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.3 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 4.6 0.1%
11-3 16.1% 41.4% 41.4% 0.0% 13.0 0.3 1.8 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 9.5 0.1%
10-4 17.0% 32.5% 32.5% 13.6 0.6 2.3 1.4 1.1 0.1 11.5
9-5 12.4% 29.5% 29.5% 14.1 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.2 8.8
8-6 12.4% 19.7% 19.7% 14.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 9.9
7-7 9.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 9.1
6-8 6.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 6.1
5-9 3.4% 3.4
4-10 2.3% 2.3
3-11 0.9% 0.9
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 30.2% 29.8% 0.4% 13.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 7.0 9.4 6.9 3.3 1.0 69.8 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.2 48.1 48.1 3.7