Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
143 Colgate 25.0%   15   1 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 12 - 6 +1.2      +4.1 71 -2.9 264 66.4 275 +0.7 167 0.0 1
146 Bucknell 24.5%   2 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 12 - 6 +1.1      -0.3 182 +1.4 126 74.9 74 +2.4 143 0.0 1
217 Boston University 9.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.2      -1.2 218 -2.0 221 66.7 268 -11.1 305 0.0 1
226 Lehigh 8.6%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.6      -1.0 204 -2.6 252 76.9 45 -3.4 225 0.0 1
227 American 8.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.6      -0.2 177 -3.4 279 67.6 244 -4.4 239 0.0 1
233 Lafayette 7.9%   2 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -3.7      -0.5 188 -3.3 276 71.0 149 +1.1 161 0.0 1
236 Loyola Maryland 7.4%   1 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -3.9      -0.6 195 -3.3 275 73.0 96 -6.5 261 0.0 1
273 Navy 4.7%   1 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -5.6      -4.6 305 -1.1 192 64.3 307 -1.2 204 0.0 1
286 Army 3.3%   0 - 2 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -6.9      -5.9 321 -1.0 190 80.4 21 -13.3 322 0.0 1
314 Holy Cross 1.0%   0 - 3 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -9.8      -4.3 297 -5.5 320 67.8 237 -19.7 349 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 2.8 34.9 21.5 14.1 10.0 7.1 5.1 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.5
Bucknell 2.9 33.8 21.3 14.3 10.3 7.3 5.3 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.6
Boston University 4.9 10.6 12.3 12.7 12.6 12.0 10.7 9.9 8.6 6.6 4.1
Lehigh 5.1 9.5 11.2 11.9 12.1 11.8 11.1 10.5 9.3 7.6 4.9
American 5.0 9.0 11.2 12.2 12.3 12.3 11.8 10.7 9.1 7.1 4.3
Lafayette 5.1 8.4 10.8 11.9 12.2 12.5 11.6 10.8 9.6 7.6 4.6
Loyola Maryland 5.2 8.0 10.4 11.7 12.4 12.2 11.6 11.1 9.8 7.9 4.9
Navy 6.1 4.8 6.7 8.4 9.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 12.9 12.2 9.9
Army 6.7 2.8 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.5 11.1 12.8 14.6 15.9 14.7
Holy Cross 8.0 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.5 7.4 10.6 14.5 21.0 32.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.9 6.9 9.2 11.5 13.1 13.4 12.6 10.5 6.9 3.5 1.1
Bucknell 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.2 7.3 9.4 11.6 12.9 13.5 12.5 10.0 6.4 3.5 1.0
Boston University 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.3 9.4 10.8 11.8 11.8 11.0 9.2 7.0 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1
Lehigh 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.1 9.9 11.3 11.8 11.6 10.1 8.6 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
American 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.5 8.1 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.8 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.3 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Lafayette 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.2 10.7 11.2 12.4 11.9 10.4 8.4 6.0 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Loyola Maryland 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.2 8.7 10.4 11.7 12.1 11.9 10.4 8.1 6.1 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
Navy 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.6 6.8 9.1 11.1 11.9 12.0 11.2 9.3 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Army 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.1 11.2 12.4 12.2 11.5 9.7 7.7 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 5 - 13 1.7 5.2 9.1 12.3 14.0 14.0 12.4 10.5 7.7 5.5 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 34.9% 25.3 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 33.8% 24.2 7.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston University 10.6% 6.5 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lehigh 9.5% 5.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
American 9.0% 5.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lafayette 8.4% 4.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 8.0% 4.6 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Navy 4.8% 2.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 2.8% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Holy Cross 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.9 7.2 7.1 3.7 75.0 0.0%
Bucknell 24.5% 24.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.5 5.9 7.3 5.9 2.4 75.5 0.1%
Boston University 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 3.8 90.7 0.0%
Lehigh 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.0 91.4 0.0%
American 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 91.6 0.0%
Lafayette 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 2.9 92.1 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 92.6 0.0%
Navy 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.1 95.3 0.0%
Army 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 96.8 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colgate 25.0% 1.4% 24.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 24.5% 0.8% 24.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.3% 2.0% 8.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 8.6% 1.4% 7.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 8.4% 1.7% 7.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 7.9% 1.4% 7.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 7.4% 1.8% 6.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 4.7% 1.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 3.3% 1.4% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 93.8% 0.9 6.2 93.7 0.1
2nd Round 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0