Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
118 Colgate 42.9%   14   15 - 5 7 - 1 23 - 7 15 - 3 +3.1      +3.5 76 -0.4 175 67.3 237 +6.3 86 +7.2 1
176 Boston University 17.1%   10 - 10 5 - 3 16 - 14 11 - 7 -0.7      +0.5 168 -1.2 204 66.7 250 -2.7 210 -2.0 4
199 Lafayette 9.8%   11 - 7 4 - 4 17 - 11 10 - 8 -2.5      +1.2 147 -3.6 279 66.6 253 -0.5 180 -4.5 7
211 American 8.2%   10 - 10 6 - 3 15 - 14 11 - 7 -3.1      -0.8 197 -2.3 235 68.4 211 -3.0 215 -0.1 2
215 Bucknell 8.0%   9 - 12 5 - 3 14 - 17 10 - 8 -3.3      -1.8 225 -1.5 212 73.9 65 -3.2 219 -2.2 5
224 Navy 7.2%   10 - 8 5 - 3 15 - 13 10 - 8 -3.8      -2.9 262 -0.8 190 57.7 351 -2.2 202 -1.6 3
265 Army 4.1%   8 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 15 9 - 9 -5.6      -2.5 246 -3.1 261 73.2 77 -5.4 251 -2.8 6
281 Loyola Maryland 1.7%   8 - 12 1 - 7 12 - 18 5 - 13 -6.7      -1.0 206 -5.6 322 71.3 119 -7.4 286 -16.4 10
300 Lehigh 0.9%   3 - 16 2 - 7 6 - 22 5 - 13 -8.1      -2.5 248 -5.6 320 70.9 129 -10.9 322 -11.5 9
340 Holy Cross 0.1%   3 - 17 2 - 6 5 - 25 4 - 14 -12.8      -3.4 274 -9.4 347 68.6 204 -12.3 333 -10.6 8






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Colgate 1.1 93.7 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston University 3.1 7.4 37.3 22.6 14.5 9.2 5.3 3.4 0.3 0.1
Lafayette 4.6 1.4 13.2 15.7 17.7 18.5 17.3 13.2 2.5 0.4 0.0
American 3.5 3.4 29.7 24.1 17.5 12.6 8.2 4.1 0.3
Bucknell 4.2 2.3 18.7 18.1 18.7 16.9 13.7 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.0
Navy 4.2 2.3 17.3 19.1 19.4 16.8 14.5 9.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
Army 5.3 0.5 6.9 9.9 13.9 17.1 20.3 24.3 5.5 1.3 0.2
Loyola Maryland 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 9.8 38.3 30.2 16.1
Lehigh 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.1 10.3 40.3 31.5 13.5
Holy Cross 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 17.2 32.0 47.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colgate 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 10.1 20.4 29.3 25.1 10.5
Boston University 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.9 9.0 17.6 23.1 22.3 14.7 6.7 1.5
Lafayette 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.9 14.3 21.5 23.5 16.9 10.2 3.2 0.6
American 11 - 7 0.3 1.4 4.9 13.0 21.6 24.4 19.5 10.8 3.6 0.6
Bucknell 10 - 8 0.2 1.4 5.4 11.4 18.5 22.5 19.6 13.0 5.8 1.9 0.3
Navy 10 - 8 0.1 1.0 4.5 11.7 19.0 23.8 20.1 12.7 5.5 1.3 0.2
Army 9 - 9 0.2 1.5 5.9 13.5 19.4 23.6 18.2 11.4 4.8 1.4 0.2
Loyola Maryland 5 - 13 0.5 4.1 11.6 20.1 23.0 20.3 12.2 5.8 1.8 0.5 0.0
Lehigh 5 - 13 2.0 10.1 20.8 26.1 22.3 12.5 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0
Holy Cross 4 - 14 13.4 27.8 28.9 18.4 7.5 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colgate 93.7% 84.7 7.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
Boston University 7.4% 2.8 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Lafayette 1.4% 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
American 3.4% 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
Bucknell 2.3% 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Navy 2.3% 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Army 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland
Lehigh
Holy Cross


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colgate 42.9% 42.9% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.5 9.3 19.7 11.4 2.0 0.0 57.1 0.0%
Boston University 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.1 8.3 5.0 82.9 0.0%
Lafayette 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.7 3.4 90.2 0.0%
American 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 2.6 5.3 91.8 0.0%
Bucknell 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.5 2.4 5.1 92.0 0.0%
Navy 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 2.8 3.8 92.8 0.0%
Army 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.5 95.9 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 98.3 0.0%
Lehigh 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colgate 42.9% 0.0% 42.9% 6.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 17.1% 1.2% 16.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 9.8% 1.0% 9.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 8.2% 2.1% 7.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bucknell 8.0% 2.6% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 7.2% 1.6% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 4.1% 2.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.9% 0.9 6.1 93.9
2nd Round 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0