Colgate
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#167
Pace66.4#266
Improvement-1.6#323

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+2.1#111
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#96
Layup/Dunks+0.0#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#47
Freethrows-3.0#313
Improvement-1.5#334

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#273
First Shot+0.7#147
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#337
Layups/Dunks-1.6#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#87
Freethrows+3.8#22
Improvement-0.1#199
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 22.7% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 79.1% 83.8% 63.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 88.5% 79.4%
Conference Champion 30.9% 33.2% 23.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.6%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 2.2%
First Round20.6% 22.3% 14.7%
Second Round2.0% 2.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Neutral) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 415 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 185   NJIT W 80-75 68%     1 - 0 +0.6 +7.2 -6.5
  Nov 10, 2019 74   @ Clemson L 68-81 18%     1 - 1 -2.9 +1.7 -4.3
  Nov 13, 2019 61   @ Syracuse L 54-70 15%     1 - 2 -4.2 -5.0 -0.8
  Nov 18, 2019 20   @ Auburn L 62-91 8%     1 - 3 -12.5 -3.7 -8.7
  Nov 24, 2019 294   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 77%    
  Nov 26, 2019 182   @ Green Bay L 80-81 46%    
  Nov 30, 2019 180   Siena W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 04, 2019 336   @ Binghamton W 76-66 82%    
  Dec 08, 2019 331   @ Niagara W 80-71 79%    
  Dec 11, 2019 271   Cornell W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 14, 2019 24   @ Cincinnati L 63-78 8%    
  Dec 22, 2019 169   Columbia W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 02, 2020 230   American W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 06, 2020 265   @ Army W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 08, 2020 220   Loyola Maryland W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 11, 2020 253   @ Navy W 67-65 59%    
  Jan 15, 2020 219   @ Lafayette W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 18, 2020 172   Boston University W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 20, 2020 163   Bucknell W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 25, 2020 230   @ American W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 29, 2020 219   Lafayette W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 01, 2020 341   @ Holy Cross W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 05, 2020 236   @ Lehigh W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 08, 2020 253   Navy W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 10, 2020 172   @ Boston University L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 16, 2020 220   @ Loyola Maryland W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 19, 2020 236   Lehigh W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 23, 2020 341   Holy Cross W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 26, 2020 163   @ Bucknell L 75-77 41%    
  Feb 29, 2020 265   Army W 79-70 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.3 8.1 7.5 5.3 2.2 0.5 30.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 6.2 6.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.5 1.6 0.2 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.1 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 3.8 5.6 8.1 11.2 12.5 13.3 13.4 11.6 8.3 5.4 2.2 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2 0.0
16-2 99.4% 5.3    5.0 0.3
15-3 90.2% 7.5    6.2 1.3 0.0
14-4 69.6% 8.1    4.9 2.7 0.4
13-5 39.3% 5.3    2.0 2.3 0.8 0.0
12-6 13.8% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.9% 30.9 21.2 7.4 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 60.6% 60.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.2% 55.0% 54.9% 0.1% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.2%
16-2 5.4% 46.3% 46.0% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 0.7%
15-3 8.3% 36.8% 36.8% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 5.3
14-4 11.6% 29.8% 29.8% 14.3 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.1 8.1
13-5 13.4% 24.6% 24.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.3 10.1
12-6 13.3% 21.7% 21.7% 15.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.8 10.4
11-7 12.5% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 10.6
10-8 11.2% 12.9% 12.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 9.8
9-9 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.5
8-10 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.2
7-11 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
6-12 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.0 6.9 3.8 78.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 59.1 4.5 4.5 9.1 9.1