Colgate
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#129
Expected Predictive Rating+5.4#95
Pace67.1#245
Improvement+3.5#37

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#75
First Shot+2.7#92
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#116
Layup/Dunks-0.5#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#13
Freethrows-2.6#330
Improvement+1.0#120

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#195
First Shot-0.6#179
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks-2.0#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#115
Freethrows+2.9#29
Improvement+2.5#49
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 38.8% 32.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 76.3% 81.2% 57.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round37.4% 38.8% 31.9%
Second Round4.1% 4.5% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 419 - 324 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 257   NJIT W 80-75 84%     1 - 0 -3.2 +5.5 -8.6
  Nov 10, 2019 71   @ Clemson L 68-81 22%     1 - 1 -2.7 +2.2 -4.6
  Nov 13, 2019 51   @ Syracuse L 54-70 17%     1 - 2 -3.5 -8.5 +3.4
  Nov 18, 2019 26   @ Auburn L 62-91 12%     1 - 3 -13.6 -3.2 -10.3
  Nov 24, 2019 270   Cal St. Northridge W 64-56 79%     2 - 3 +1.9 -11.5 +13.8
  Nov 26, 2019 214   @ Green Bay W 99-81 61%     3 - 3 +17.5 +20.8 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2019 231   Siena W 72-62 80%     4 - 3 +3.3 -7.3 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2019 335   @ Binghamton W 82-74 84%     5 - 3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7
  Dec 08, 2019 289   @ Niagara L 82-93 OT 75%     5 - 4 -15.8 -6.3 -8.2
  Dec 11, 2019 294   Cornell W 66-58 88%     6 - 4 -2.4 -6.7 +5.0
  Dec 14, 2019 50   @ Cincinnati W 67-66 16%     7 - 4 +13.8 +7.8 +6.0
  Dec 22, 2019 246   Columbia W 89-71 82%     8 - 4 +10.5 +10.2 -0.3
  Jan 02, 2020 217   American W 65-51 79%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +7.8 -8.0 +16.6
  Jan 06, 2020 295   @ Army W 70-65 76%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +0.1 -5.5 +5.6
  Jan 08, 2020 271   Loyola Maryland W 92-70 85%     11 - 4 3 - 0 +13.0 +9.2 +2.9
  Jan 11, 2020 218   @ Navy W 70-63 61%     12 - 4 4 - 0 +6.4 +2.7 +4.2
  Jan 15, 2020 194   @ Lafayette L 67-71 56%     12 - 5 4 - 1 -3.1 -1.7 -1.8
  Jan 18, 2020 180   Boston University W 79-70 71%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +5.5 +9.7 -3.5
  Jan 20, 2020 219   Bucknell W 77-68 80%    
  Jan 25, 2020 217   @ American W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 29, 2020 194   Lafayette W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 339   @ Holy Cross W 79-67 87%    
  Feb 05, 2020 269   @ Lehigh W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 08, 2020 218   Navy W 68-59 79%    
  Feb 10, 2020 180   @ Boston University W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 16, 2020 271   @ Loyola Maryland W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 19, 2020 269   Lehigh W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 23, 2020 339   Holy Cross W 82-64 95%    
  Feb 26, 2020 219   @ Bucknell W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 29, 2020 295   Army W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 11.5 21.4 22.1 14.2 4.4 76.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.3 6.1 2.2 0.2 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.8 10.3 18.0 23.7 22.4 14.2 4.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.4    4.4
16-2 100.0% 14.2    14.1 0.1
15-3 99.0% 22.1    20.7 1.4 0.0
14-4 90.5% 21.4    16.0 5.1 0.3
13-5 63.8% 11.5    5.0 5.1 1.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 25.3% 2.6    0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.3% 76.3 60.5 12.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.4% 51.9% 51.9% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.1
16-2 14.2% 47.7% 47.7% 12.9 0.0 1.9 3.8 1.0 0.0 7.4
15-3 22.4% 42.0% 42.0% 13.3 0.9 5.1 3.1 0.3 13.0
14-4 23.7% 37.8% 37.8% 13.7 0.2 3.3 4.4 1.0 0.0 14.7
13-5 18.0% 32.2% 32.2% 14.1 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.7 0.1 12.2
12-6 10.3% 27.8% 27.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.1 7.4
11-7 4.8% 20.7% 20.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 3.8
10-8 1.7% 16.7% 16.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.5% 8.9% 8.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.4% 37.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 4.5 14.1 12.9 5.2 0.4 62.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 12.2 0.3 9.1 64.9 24.8 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%