Lafayette
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#194
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#167
Pace67.0#247
Improvement-0.7#216

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#152
First Shot+4.5#52
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#343
Layup/Dunks-1.6#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#9
Freethrows-1.5#288
Improvement-2.3#293

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#261
First Shot-1.2#200
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#314
Layups/Dunks-1.7#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#132
Freethrows+2.8#35
Improvement+1.6#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 13.4% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 95.7% 97.5% 88.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 86.8% 62.6%
Conference Champion 6.0% 7.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round11.9% 12.8% 8.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 79.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 35 - 45 - 5
Quad 413 - 618 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 246   Columbia W 65-63 70%     1 - 0 -5.5 -10.4 +4.8
  Nov 09, 2019 302   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 72-73 63%     1 - 1 -6.5 -8.2 +1.8
  Nov 13, 2019 176   @ Princeton W 72-65 34%     2 - 1 +9.3 +4.1 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2019 202   Delaware L 73-81 64%     2 - 2 -13.5 -0.3 -13.7
  Nov 19, 2019 149   Penn W 86-75 49%     3 - 2 +9.2 +15.9 -6.1
  Nov 24, 2019 310   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-75 83%     4 - 2 -7.0 +3.6 -10.2
  Dec 03, 2019 243   @ Saint Joseph's W 94-71 49%     5 - 2 +21.3 +19.2 +2.3
  Dec 07, 2019 294   @ Cornell W 62-59 61%     6 - 2 -1.8 -6.2 +4.7
  Dec 22, 2019 32   @ Rutgers L 44-63 7%     6 - 3 -4.3 -18.2 +14.0
  Dec 29, 2019 208   @ Sacred Heart W 67-66 43%     7 - 3 +0.8 -10.6 +11.4
  Jan 02, 2020 180   @ Boston University L 72-73 35%     7 - 4 0 - 1 +1.1 +1.0 +0.1
  Jan 05, 2020 219   Bucknell L 66-78 66%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -18.2 -9.2 -9.0
  Jan 08, 2020 339   Holy Cross W 82-64 90%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +2.3 +3.4 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2020 271   @ Loyola Maryland W 65-62 55%     9 - 5 2 - 2 -0.3 -8.5 +8.3
  Jan 15, 2020 129   Colgate W 71-67 44%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +3.5 +1.8 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2020 218   @ Navy L 66-68 45%     10 - 6 3 - 3 -2.6 +1.2 -4.1
  Jan 22, 2020 295   Army W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 25, 2020 269   @ Lehigh W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 29, 2020 129   @ Colgate L 68-75 25%    
  Feb 01, 2020 217   American W 73-69 66%    
  Feb 03, 2020 219   @ Bucknell L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 269   Lehigh W 77-70 74%    
  Feb 12, 2020 295   @ Army W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 339   @ Holy Cross W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 19, 2020 180   Boston University W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 22, 2020 271   Loyola Maryland W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 26, 2020 217   @ American L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 29, 2020 218   Navy W 66-62 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.5 2.0 0.4 6.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 7.2 4.9 0.9 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 9.9 5.6 0.8 0.0 20.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 9.2 6.2 0.7 0.0 19.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 7.5 5.9 0.7 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.2 5.1 0.8 0.0 12.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.1 10.3 16.2 19.8 19.8 14.6 8.2 2.9 0.5 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 94.8% 0.4    0.4 0.1
14-4 68.6% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.1
13-5 30.0% 2.5    0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.1% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.2 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.5% 32.0% 32.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 2.9% 28.6% 28.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.0
13-5 8.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 6.3
12-6 14.6% 18.7% 18.7% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.4 11.8
11-7 19.8% 12.4% 12.4% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 17.4
10-8 19.8% 10.8% 10.8% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 17.7
9-9 16.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 14.8
8-10 10.3% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 9.7
7-11 5.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.9
6-12 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 2.0
5-13 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.7 4.1 87.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 18.2 54.7 27.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%