American
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.6#232
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#264
Pace66.3#271
Improvement+0.8#64

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#148
First Shot+2.5#104
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#268
Layup/Dunks-1.2#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#66
Freethrows-0.6#197
Improvement+0.2#130

Defense
Total Defense-4.4#298
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-4.3#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#153
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+0.6#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 8.7% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 40.8% 43.0% 17.8%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 60.0% 42.8%
Conference Champion 9.0% 9.5% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 6.5% 13.4%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
First Round7.5% 7.8% 4.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 91.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 411 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 182   @ Siena L 80-96 30%     0 - 1 -14.1 +3.7 -16.8
  Nov 08, 2019 165   William & Mary L 70-79 49%     0 - 2 -12.5 -9.5 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2019 260   @ George Washington W 67-65 44%     1 - 2 -0.1 -0.7 +0.8
  Nov 16, 2019 217   @ St. Francis (PA) L 76-79 36%     1 - 3 -3.0 +6.7 -10.0
  Nov 26, 2019 346   Howard W 85-71 91%    
  Nov 30, 2019 192   @ Albany L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 03, 2019 209   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 07, 2019 142   @ George Mason L 68-76 23%    
  Dec 17, 2019 287   @ Mount St. Mary's W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 21, 2019 175   Stony Brook W 69-68 51%    
  Dec 28, 2019 80   @ Georgetown L 72-85 12%    
  Jan 02, 2020 140   @ Colgate L 69-77 24%    
  Jan 05, 2020 216   Boston University W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 08, 2020 288   @ Army W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 11, 2020 241   @ Lehigh L 75-77 42%    
  Jan 15, 2020 151   Bucknell L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 18, 2020 313   Holy Cross W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 22, 2020 230   @ Loyola Maryland L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 25, 2020 140   Colgate L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 27, 2020 241   Lehigh W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 250   @ Lafayette L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 05, 2020 269   @ Navy L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 08, 2020 288   Army W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 12, 2020 230   Loyola Maryland W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 151   @ Bucknell L 71-78 27%    
  Feb 19, 2020 269   Navy W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 23, 2020 216   @ Boston University L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 26, 2020 250   Lafayette W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 29, 2020 313   @ Holy Cross W 72-69 61%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 9.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 3.9 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.6 5.3 3.4 0.8 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.6 3.2 0.6 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 4.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.2 8.1 10.2 11.9 12.3 12.0 11.1 8.7 6.3 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 97.6% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-3 85.3% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 61.9% 2.7    1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.6% 2.0    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.3% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 5.2 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 61.3% 61.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 41.2% 41.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 44.8% 44.8% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.4% 29.2% 29.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7
14-4 4.4% 22.9% 22.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.4
13-5 6.3% 21.3% 21.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 5.0
12-6 8.7% 15.2% 15.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 7.4
11-7 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 9.9
10-8 12.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 11.1
9-9 12.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 11.6
8-10 11.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 11.6
7-11 10.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.0
6-12 8.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.0
5-13 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.8 3.9 91.6 0.0%