American
Patriot League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#219
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#224
Pace68.1#222
Improvement+0.8#149

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#207
First Shot+0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#273
Layup/Dunks+3.4#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#322
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#97
Freethrows-2.0#314
Improvement-2.9#315

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#236
First Shot-2.6#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks-2.8#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#59
Freethrows-1.8#283
Improvement+3.7#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.1% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 50.3% 53.6% 25.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 83.9% 59.2%
Conference Champion 7.0% 7.5% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 2.7%
First Four2.8% 2.8% 3.0%
First Round7.4% 7.7% 5.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 83 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 230   @ Siena L 80-96 41%     0 - 1 -17.1 +0.5 -16.6
  Nov 08, 2019 163   William & Mary L 70-79 47%     0 - 2 -11.7 -9.3 -2.0
  Nov 12, 2019 192   @ George Washington W 67-65 33%     1 - 2 +3.1 -0.9 +4.0
  Nov 16, 2019 185   @ St. Francis (PA) L 76-79 31%     1 - 3 -1.2 +8.3 -9.7
  Nov 26, 2019 349   Howard W 86-69 94%     2 - 3 -3.7 -3.3 -1.3
  Nov 30, 2019 224   @ Albany L 64-68 40%     2 - 4 -4.8 -9.5 +4.8
  Dec 03, 2019 302   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 85-61 77%     3 - 4 +12.9 +3.7 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2019 157   @ George Mason L 53-68 25%     3 - 5 -11.5 -15.6 +3.4
  Dec 17, 2019 285   @ Mount St. Mary's W 82-76 54%     4 - 5 +1.6 +8.2 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2019 136   Stony Brook L 74-77 41%     4 - 6 -4.0 +1.7 -5.6
  Dec 28, 2019 47   @ Georgetown L 60-80 7%     4 - 7 -6.9 -11.3 +5.0
  Jan 02, 2020 127   @ Colgate L 51-65 21%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -8.7 -18.5 +9.0
  Jan 05, 2020 177   Boston University W 67-63 50%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +0.5 -8.0 +8.6
  Jan 08, 2020 297   @ Army W 68-60 56%     6 - 8 2 - 1 +3.1 -2.4 +6.0
  Jan 11, 2020 261   @ Lehigh L 73-82 47%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -11.7 -5.4 -6.0
  Jan 15, 2020 227   Bucknell W 61-60 63%     7 - 9 3 - 2 -5.8 -7.2 +1.6
  Jan 18, 2020 340   Holy Cross W 78-66 88%    
  Jan 22, 2020 270   @ Loyola Maryland L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 127   Colgate L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 27, 2020 261   Lehigh W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2020 193   @ Lafayette L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 05, 2020 217   @ Navy L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 08, 2020 297   Army W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 12, 2020 270   Loyola Maryland W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 15, 2020 227   @ Bucknell L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 19, 2020 217   Navy W 64-61 61%    
  Feb 23, 2020 177   @ Boston University L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 26, 2020 193   Lafayette W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 29, 2020 340   @ Holy Cross W 75-68 73%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.4 2.5 0.9 0.1 7.0 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 6.9 5.2 1.2 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.6 9.7 5.5 0.9 0.0 20.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.0 9.2 5.2 0.5 0.0 18.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 7.7 5.1 0.6 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.5 4.7 0.8 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.2 10.8 16.2 18.9 18.8 13.9 8.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 91.9% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 66.7% 2.5    1.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 28.7% 2.4    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.0
12-6 7.0% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 2.9 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.9% 25.8% 25.8% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-4 3.8% 19.2% 19.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.0
13-5 8.5% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 7.2
12-6 13.9% 12.7% 12.7% 15.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 12.1
11-7 18.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.6 16.8
10-8 18.9% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.2 1.3 17.5
9-9 16.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8 15.3
8-10 10.8% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.4
7-11 5.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 2.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.7 91.2 0.0%