Preseason Rankings
American
Patriot League
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#184
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.3#245
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#201
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#203
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.8% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.8
.500 or above 60.5% 72.9% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 66.7% 73.7% 59.4%
Conference Champion 14.2% 18.3% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 3.5% 7.4%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.5%
First Round11.1% 14.3% 7.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 51.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 412 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 251   @ Siena W 63-62 51%    
  Nov 08, 2019 246   William & Mary W 77-71 71%    
  Nov 12, 2019 190   @ George Washington L 67-70 40%    
  Nov 16, 2019 248   @ St. Francis (PA) L 73-74 49%    
  Nov 26, 2019 337   Howard W 82-69 88%    
  Nov 30, 2019 178   @ Albany L 68-71 38%    
  Dec 03, 2019 206   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 07, 2019 151   @ George Mason L 68-74 31%    
  Dec 17, 2019 287   @ Mount St. Mary's W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 21, 2019 196   Stony Brook W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 28, 2019 54   @ Georgetown L 71-85 11%    
  Jan 02, 2020 127   @ Colgate L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 05, 2020 200   Boston University W 73-69 62%    
  Jan 08, 2020 244   @ Army L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 11, 2020 227   @ Lehigh L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 15, 2020 159   Bucknell W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2020 312   Holy Cross W 70-60 81%    
  Jan 22, 2020 209   @ Loyola Maryland L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 25, 2020 127   Colgate L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 27, 2020 227   Lehigh W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 01, 2020 261   @ Lafayette W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 05, 2020 267   @ Navy W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 244   Army W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 12, 2020 209   Loyola Maryland W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 15, 2020 159   @ Bucknell L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 19, 2020 267   Navy W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 23, 2020 200   @ Boston University L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 26, 2020 261   Lafayette W 78-71 70%    
  Feb 29, 2020 312   @ Holy Cross W 67-63 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.8 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.2 4.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 3.7 0.9 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 5.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.2 5.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 3.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.4 7.7 9.5 10.9 11.5 11.0 10.1 8.2 6.7 4.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 96.4% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-3 82.0% 3.7    2.8 0.9 0.1
14-4 56.8% 3.8    2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 26.6% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 9.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 80.3% 74.4% 5.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.9%
17-1 1.2% 50.8% 49.9% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.8%
16-2 2.3% 46.2% 46.1% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.2%
15-3 4.5% 33.1% 33.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 0.0%
14-4 6.7% 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 5.0 0.0%
13-5 8.2% 21.4% 21.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 6.5
12-6 10.1% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 8.5
11-7 11.0% 10.2% 10.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 9.9
10-8 11.5% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 10.6
9-9 10.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 10.2
8-10 9.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-11 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.6
6-12 6.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.3
5-13 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.4
4-14 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.7
3-15 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 2.9 3.2 2.6 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 2.1 2.1 33.3 29.2 2.1 31.3