Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#241
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 32.2% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 83.9% 88.7% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 90.0% 92.1% 84.3%
Conference Champion 39.9% 43.7% 29.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.8%
First Four1.5% 1.3% 2.0%
First Round28.7% 31.5% 21.0%
Second Round4.4% 5.2% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.1% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 415 - 321 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 175   NJIT W 74-68 73%    
  Nov 10, 2019 81   @ Clemson L 64-71 26%    
  Nov 13, 2019 59   @ Syracuse L 65-74 19%    
  Nov 18, 2019 25   @ Auburn L 68-81 12%    
  Nov 24, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge W 81-76 69%    
  Nov 26, 2019 167   @ Green Bay L 80-81 49%    
  Nov 30, 2019 251   Siena W 70-59 83%    
  Dec 04, 2019 339   @ Binghamton W 76-64 85%    
  Dec 08, 2019 315   @ Niagara W 82-73 77%    
  Dec 11, 2019 282   Cornell W 78-66 85%    
  Dec 14, 2019 29   @ Cincinnati L 61-74 13%    
  Dec 22, 2019 173   Columbia W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 02, 2020 184   American W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 06, 2020 244   @ Army W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 08, 2020 209   Loyola Maryland W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 11, 2020 267   @ Navy W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 15, 2020 261   @ Lafayette W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 18, 2020 200   Boston University W 77-69 74%    
  Jan 20, 2020 159   Bucknell W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 25, 2020 184   @ American W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 29, 2020 261   Lafayette W 81-70 82%    
  Feb 01, 2020 312   @ Holy Cross W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 05, 2020 227   @ Lehigh W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 267   Navy W 76-65 83%    
  Feb 10, 2020 200   @ Boston University W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 16, 2020 209   @ Loyola Maryland W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 19, 2020 227   Lehigh W 83-74 78%    
  Feb 23, 2020 312   Holy Cross W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 26, 2020 159   @ Bucknell L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 29, 2020 244   Army W 78-68 80%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.4 7.9 9.9 8.7 5.5 2.2 39.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.4 6.5 4.8 1.7 0.3 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.2 5.8 8.0 9.5 12.6 13.0 12.9 11.6 8.9 5.5 2.2 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 100.0% 5.5    5.4 0.1
16-2 97.2% 8.7    7.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 85.0% 9.9    7.5 2.3 0.1
14-4 60.9% 7.9    4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 33.7% 4.4    1.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 10.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.9% 39.9 29.6 8.4 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 79.6% 75.6% 4.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16.6%
17-1 5.5% 61.2% 57.9% 3.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 7.8%
16-2 8.9% 52.5% 51.9% 0.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 1.4%
15-3 11.6% 43.1% 43.0% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 6.6 0.2%
14-4 12.9% 35.6% 35.5% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.2 8.3 0.2%
13-5 13.0% 29.8% 29.8% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.4 9.1
12-6 12.6% 21.7% 21.7% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 9.8
11-7 9.5% 15.1% 15.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 8.1
10-8 8.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 6.8
9-9 5.8% 9.4% 9.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 5.3
8-10 4.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.9
7-11 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.4% 29.1% 0.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 4.2 6.6 7.4 6.2 3.0 70.6 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 1.6 45.3 26.6 25.0 1.6