IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Navy
Patriot League
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#267
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.1	#224
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-3.9	#286

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.9	#225

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	4.1%	7.1%	3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	28.6%	51.2%	23.5%
.500 or above in Conference	36.8%	52.8%	33.2%
Conference Champion	4.2%	7.3%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	18.6%	9.9%	20.6%

First Four	0.9%	1.2%	0.9%
First Round	3.7%	6.6%	3.0%
Second Round	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 7	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	151	@ George Mason	L	65-75	18%
Nov 08, 2019	203	East Carolina	L	70-71	49%
Nov 19, 2019	87	@ Liberty	L	56-71	9%
Nov 22, 2019	177	Lipscomb	L	74-76	45%
Nov 26, 2019	282	Cornell	W	72-68	63%
Nov 30, 2019	171	@ Brown	L	68-76	23%
Dec 02, 2019	314	@ Bryant	W	72-71	51%
Dec 07, 2019	328	Marist	W	69-61	74%
Dec 20, 2019	287	Mount St. Mary's	W	71-67	64%
Dec 29, 2019	10	@ Virginia	L	47-73	1%
Jan 02, 2020	227	Lehigh	W	76-75	53%
Jan 05, 2020	312	@ Holy Cross	W	65-64	51%
Jan 08, 2020	159	@ Bucknell	L	68-77	22%
Jan 11, 2020	127	Colgate	L	68-73	32%
Jan 15, 2020	227	@ Lehigh	L	73-78	33%
Jan 18, 2020	261	Lafayette	W	75-72	59%
Jan 22, 2020	200	@ Boston University	L	67-73	30%
Jan 25, 2020	244	Army	W	72-70	57%
Jan 29, 2020	312	Holy Cross	W	67-61	70%
Feb 01, 2020	209	@ Loyola Maryland	L	69-75	31%
Feb 05, 2020	184	American	L	68-69	47%
Feb 08, 2020	127	@ Colgate	L	65-76	17%
Feb 12, 2020	159	Bucknell	L	71-74	40%
Feb 15, 2020	200	Boston University	L	70-71	49%
Feb 19, 2020	184	@ American	L	65-72	29%
Feb 22, 2020	244	@ Army	L	69-73	37%
Feb 26, 2020	209	Loyola Maryland	W	73-72	50%
Feb 29, 2020	261	@ Lafayette	L	72-75	39%
Projected Record						11 - 17	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.1	0.4	1.0	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.0		4.2	1st
2nd										0.0	0.2	1.0	2.0	1.7	0.8	0.2	0.0				5.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.4	2.9	2.1	0.6	0.0	0.0					7.2	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.0	3.9	2.2	0.4	0.0							8.7	4th
5th							0.0	0.3	2.6	4.7	2.4	0.3	0.0								10.5	5th
6th						0.0	0.4	2.9	5.2	2.5	0.4	0.0									11.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	3.3	5.4	2.7	0.4	0.0										12.5	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	5.3	2.4	0.4	0.0											13.4	8th
9th		0.0	0.5	2.0	4.6	4.6	2.1	0.3													14.1	9th
10th	0.4	1.7	2.9	3.6	2.5	0.9	0.1	0.0													12.1	10th

Total	0.4	1.7	3.4	5.7	8.3	10.2	11.2	11.3	11.0	9.9	8.3	6.5	5.0	3.3	2.0	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
16-2	93.3%	0.4		0.4	0.0
15-3	86.1%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
14-4	58.6%	1.2		0.7	0.5	0.1
13-5	28.9%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	7.7%	0.4		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.1%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	4.2%	4.2		2.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		78.5%	78.5%		10.2								0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
17-1	0.2%		46.9%	46.9%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
16-2	0.5%		25.8%	25.8%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
15-3	1.1%		31.4%	31.4%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.7
14-4	2.0%		21.5%	21.5%		14.2													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.6
13-5	3.3%		17.1%	17.1%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	2.7
12-6	5.0%		12.7%	12.7%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	4.3
11-7	6.5%		8.7%	8.7%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	5.9
10-8	8.3%		5.8%	5.8%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	7.8
9-9	9.9%		4.5%	4.5%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.5
8-10	11.0%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	10.8
7-11	11.3%		0.9%	0.9%		15.8																0.0	0.1	11.2
6-12	11.2%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	11.1
5-13	10.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
4-14	8.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.3
3-15	5.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	5.7
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.7%																							1.7
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		4.1%	4.1%	0.0%	15.0								0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.3	1.6	95.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%