Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#324
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#203
Pace67.5#247
Improvement-0.4#220

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#328
First Shot-6.1#325
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#196
Layup/Dunks-5.0#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#126
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement-0.7#274

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#293
First Shot-3.4#273
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#228
Layups/Dunks-3.8#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#298
Freethrows+1.9#90
Improvement+0.3#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 18.9% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 13.0% 41.2% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 64.7% 79.9% 64.5%
Conference Champion 7.4% 13.9% 7.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.0% 2.8%
First Four6.5% 13.1% 6.4%
First Round3.6% 10.1% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 30 - 10
Quad 411 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 5   @ Gonzaga L 64-95 1%     0 - 1 -10.3 +0.4 -11.0
  Nov 10, 2019 124   @ Missouri St. L 50-59 7%     0 - 2 -3.6 -17.5 +13.8
  Nov 12, 2019 45   @ Houston L 56-84 2%     0 - 3 -14.3 -10.4 -4.0
  Nov 20, 2019 17   @ Tennessee L 41-76 1%     0 - 4 -18.3 -25.3 +7.5
  Nov 25, 2019 41   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-82 1%    
  Nov 29, 2019 226   Chattanooga L 64-71 25%    
  Dec 09, 2019 148   @ South Dakota L 63-78 9%    
  Dec 11, 2019 58   @ Kansas St. L 50-73 2%    
  Dec 14, 2019 112   @ Boise St. L 61-78 6%    
  Dec 22, 2019 238   Austin Peay L 69-76 28%    
  Dec 29, 2019 13   @ Oregon L 51-81 0.3%   
  Jan 04, 2020 317   @ Jackson St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 06, 2020 270   @ Grambling St. L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 11, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 86-74 87%    
  Jan 13, 2020 341   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 18, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 25, 2020 343   @ Southern L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 27, 2020 338   @ Alcorn St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 01, 2020 268   Prairie View L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 03, 2020 279   Texas Southern L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 83-77 72%    
  Feb 10, 2020 341   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 15, 2020 351   Alabama A&M W 74-63 83%    
  Feb 22, 2020 343   Southern W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 24, 2020 338   Alcorn St. W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 268   @ Prairie View L 65-73 24%    
  Mar 02, 2020 279   @ Texas Southern L 72-79 26%    
  Mar 05, 2020 317   Jackson St. W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 270   Grambling St. L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 7.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.0 2.3 0.6 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.6 5.0 1.9 0.3 13.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 5.2 1.6 0.2 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.3 5.0 1.1 0.1 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 4.2 0.9 0.0 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.1 6.5 9.2 11.8 13.1 13.3 11.8 10.2 7.3 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.4% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 75.8% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
14-4 46.8% 2.3    1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-5 18.2% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 40.0% 40.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
16-2 1.1% 33.1% 33.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 0.7
15-3 2.6% 27.4% 27.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9
14-4 4.9% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0 3.8
13-5 7.3% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1 6.2
12-6 10.2% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 1.1 9.1
11-7 11.8% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.9 10.9
10-8 13.3% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 12.5
9-9 13.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 12.6
8-10 11.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 11.5
7-11 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 9.1
6-12 6.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
5-13 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.0 92.9 0.0%