Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-13.6#343
Expected Predictive Rating-18.8#347
Pace70.1#158
Improvement-1.7#254

Offense
Total Offense-8.5#345
First Shot-6.4#329
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#308
Layup/Dunks-2.7#282
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#257
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement+2.3#52

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#316
First Shot-4.4#309
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#230
Layups/Dunks-3.6#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#273
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement-4.0#338
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.1% 24.5% 9.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 10.2% 25.5%
First Four1.6% 2.2% 1.1%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Neutral) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 48 - 128 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 64-95 0.4%    0 - 1 -9.6 +0.3 -10.1
  Nov 10, 2019 157   @ Missouri St. L 50-59 6%     0 - 2 -5.4 -19.6 +14.0
  Nov 12, 2019 34   @ Houston L 56-84 1%     0 - 3 -13.3 -11.4 -2.0
  Nov 20, 2019 57   @ Tennessee L 41-76 2%     0 - 4 -23.4 -25.0 +2.2
  Nov 25, 2019 48   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-78 2%     0 - 5 -3.3 -0.4 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2019 165   Chattanooga L 56-74 10%     0 - 6 -17.7 -19.7 +2.5
  Nov 30, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 67-54 77%     1 - 6 -8.2 -24.4 +14.9
  Dec 09, 2019 203   @ South Dakota L 59-73 10%     1 - 7 -13.9 -14.8 +0.3
  Dec 11, 2019 95   @ Kansas St. L 41-86 3%     1 - 8 -37.0 -23.4 -15.1
  Dec 14, 2019 113   @ Boise St. L 57-100 4%     1 - 9 -36.2 -16.9 -16.9
  Dec 21, 2019 174   UAB L 63-71 11%     1 - 10 -8.4 -7.1 -1.5
  Dec 22, 2019 172   Austin Peay L 69-80 11%     1 - 11 -11.4 -5.2 -6.5
  Dec 29, 2019 22   @ Oregon L 59-98 1%     1 - 12 -22.7 -6.9 -16.5
  Jan 04, 2020 327   @ Jackson St. L 67-70 28%     1 - 13 0 - 1 -10.5 -1.6 -9.2
  Jan 06, 2020 293   @ Grambling St. L 63-68 20%     1 - 14 0 - 2 -9.8 -15.1 +5.7
  Jan 11, 2020 351   Mississippi Valley W 81-75 81%     2 - 14 1 - 2 -16.8 -11.1 -6.2
  Jan 13, 2020 344   Arkansas Pine Bluff L 56-61 62%     2 - 15 1 - 3 -21.7 -16.2 -5.8
  Jan 18, 2020 338   Alabama A&M L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 25, 2020 335   @ Southern L 63-68 31%    
  Jan 27, 2020 332   @ Alcorn St. L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 01, 2020 223   Prairie View L 66-73 26%    
  Feb 03, 2020 263   Texas Southern L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 08, 2020 351   @ Mississippi Valley W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 10, 2020 344   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 60-63 39%    
  Feb 15, 2020 338   Alabama A&M W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 22, 2020 335   Southern W 66-65 53%    
  Feb 24, 2020 332   Alcorn St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 223   @ Prairie View L 63-76 12%    
  Mar 02, 2020 263   @ Texas Southern L 70-81 16%    
  Mar 05, 2020 327   Jackson St. L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 07, 2020 293   Grambling St. L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 4.4 1.0 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 3.0 6.2 2.2 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.4 8.2 4.0 0.3 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.2 9.5 5.3 0.6 20.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 6.8 9.8 5.3 0.8 0.0 25.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.3 1.4 0.2 10.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.3 10.8 15.7 18.6 17.6 13.7 8.9 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 52.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 14.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.7% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 2.0% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.1 1.8
10-8 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.2 4.1
9-9 8.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 8.6
8-10 13.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 13.3
7-11 17.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.3
6-12 18.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.5
5-13 15.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.7
4-14 10.8% 10.8
3-15 5.3% 5.3
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%