Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#292
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#275
Pace74.8#69
Improvement-1.4#321

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#161
First Shot-0.1#172
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#144
Layup/Dunks-0.8#196
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#189
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement-0.2#217

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#343
First Shot-5.8#323
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#283
Layups/Dunks-3.3#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#297
Freethrows+0.6#157
Improvement-1.2#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.3% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 5.6% 11.9% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.8% 39.5% 28.2%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 12.9% 20.6%
First Four1.3% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round1.7% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Neutral) - 22.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 92 - 15
Quad 47 - 79 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 69   @ Oregon St. L 67-87 5%     0 - 1 -9.0 -3.8 -4.9
  Nov 09, 2019 92   @ New Mexico L 70-97 8%     0 - 2 -18.6 -6.9 -9.8
  Nov 12, 2019 119   Pepperdine L 82-94 25%     0 - 3 -12.4 -1.9 -9.4
  Nov 15, 2019 21   @ Auburn L 70-116 2%     0 - 4 -29.6 -6.4 -16.1
  Nov 17, 2019 105   @ Richmond L 62-90 10%     0 - 5 -21.3 -8.9 -13.8
  Nov 24, 2019 150   Colgate L 75-83 23%    
  Nov 25, 2019 179   @ Green Bay L 82-91 19%    
  Nov 30, 2019 122   Fresno St. L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 04, 2019 246   @ Portland L 73-79 30%    
  Dec 06, 2019 274   @ Portland St. L 80-84 34%    
  Dec 11, 2019 166   North Dakota St. L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 15, 2019 235   @ Pacific L 69-75 28%    
  Dec 28, 2019 121   @ Boise St. L 75-88 13%    
  Dec 31, 2019 306   Morgan St. W 84-79 67%    
  Jan 08, 2020 252   Long Beach St. W 82-81 52%    
  Jan 11, 2020 314   @ Cal Poly L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 16, 2020 275   @ UC Riverside L 67-71 34%    
  Jan 18, 2020 309   UC Davis W 76-71 68%    
  Jan 22, 2020 170   @ UC Santa Barbara L 71-81 19%    
  Jan 25, 2020 217   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 74-81 26%    
  Jan 30, 2020 170   UC Santa Barbara L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 02, 2020 202   @ Hawaii L 72-80 24%    
  Feb 08, 2020 275   UC Riverside W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 13, 2020 314   Cal Poly W 80-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 309   @ UC Davis L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 100   UC Irvine L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 26, 2020 252   @ Long Beach St. L 79-85 31%    
  Feb 29, 2020 217   Cal St. Fullerton L 77-78 45%    
  Mar 04, 2020 100   @ UC Irvine L 67-82 10%    
  Mar 07, 2020 202   Hawaii L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.9 1.1 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 4.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 6.3 4.8 1.1 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.6 6.0 1.1 0.0 16.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 7.3 5.4 1.1 0.0 17.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 3.5 6.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 11.8 9th
Total 0.4 1.8 4.1 7.7 11.6 14.1 14.7 14.7 11.6 8.2 5.3 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 90.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
13-3 60.1% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 38.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.2% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.6% 28.6% 28.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
12-4 1.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
11-5 3.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.8
10-6 5.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.9
9-7 8.2% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.8
8-8 11.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.5
7-9 14.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 14.5
6-10 14.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 14.6
5-11 14.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.0
4-12 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
3-13 7.7% 7.7
2-14 4.1% 4.1
1-15 1.8% 1.8
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%