Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#263
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#262
Pace74.8#55
Improvement+3.7#41

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#158
First Shot+1.0#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#187
Layup/Dunks-2.7#278
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#178
Freethrows-0.3#192
Improvement+2.9#43

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#332
First Shot-3.9#301
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#339
Layups/Dunks-1.0#220
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#343
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.8#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.2% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 45.1% 63.2% 30.9%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 2.5% 10.7%
First Four3.9% 4.4% 3.5%
First Round2.8% 3.4% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 44.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 48 - 711 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 94   @ Oregon St. L 67-87 10%     0 - 1 -11.5 -5.7 -5.5
  Nov 09, 2019 124   @ New Mexico L 70-97 15%     0 - 2 -21.5 -7.5 -12.1
  Nov 12, 2019 141   Pepperdine L 82-94 34%     0 - 3 -13.4 -2.4 -9.9
  Nov 15, 2019 27   @ Auburn L 70-116 4%     0 - 4 -30.6 -5.9 -17.6
  Nov 17, 2019 76   @ Richmond L 62-90 8%     0 - 5 -18.1 -4.2 -15.3
  Nov 24, 2019 119   Colgate L 56-64 21%     0 - 6 -5.0 -14.3 +8.9
  Nov 25, 2019 216   @ Green Bay L 84-85 31%     0 - 7 -1.5 -0.6 -0.8
  Nov 30, 2019 159   Fresno St. W 73-72 39%     1 - 7 -1.7 +5.8 -7.4
  Dec 04, 2019 280   @ Portland W 71-64 43%     2 - 7 +3.3 -6.2 +9.2
  Dec 06, 2019 217   @ Portland St. L 67-73 32%     2 - 8 -6.6 -8.6 +1.9
  Dec 11, 2019 150   North Dakota St. L 62-71 36%     2 - 9 -11.0 -8.8 -2.8
  Dec 15, 2019 162   @ Pacific L 73-79 21%     2 - 10 -2.9 +3.6 -6.6
  Dec 28, 2019 91   @ Boise St. L 72-103 10%     2 - 11 -22.3 -7.7 -10.2
  Dec 31, 2019 322   Morgan St. W 93-82 75%     3 - 11 -1.6 +10.0 -12.1
  Jan 08, 2020 297   Long Beach St. W 95-77 69%     4 - 11 1 - 0 +7.4 +8.0 -2.5
  Jan 11, 2020 327   @ Cal Poly L 56-74 58%     4 - 12 1 - 1 -25.5 -22.2 -2.3
  Jan 16, 2020 236   @ UC Riverside W 80-68 34%     5 - 12 2 - 1 +10.7 +11.9 -0.6
  Jan 18, 2020 252   UC Davis L 62-66 60%     5 - 13 2 - 2 -12.1 -10.9 -1.5
  Jan 22, 2020 184   @ UC Santa Barbara W 83-75 24%     6 - 13 3 - 2 +9.9 +21.1 -10.0
  Jan 25, 2020 260   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-82 39%     6 - 14 3 - 3 -9.6 -2.7 -6.3
  Jan 30, 2020 184   UC Santa Barbara L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 02, 2020 170   @ Hawaii L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 08, 2020 236   UC Riverside W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 13, 2020 327   Cal Poly W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 252   @ UC Davis L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 22, 2020 122   UC Irvine L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 26, 2020 297   @ Long Beach St. L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 29, 2020 260   Cal St. Fullerton W 76-73 61%    
  Mar 04, 2020 122   @ UC Irvine L 69-80 15%    
  Mar 07, 2020 170   Hawaii L 76-78 43%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 3.7 1.4 0.1 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.6 7.8 2.2 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 10.5 3.4 0.1 16.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 9.8 6.0 0.3 17.0 5th
6th 0.3 6.8 8.2 0.8 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.2 3.7 8.7 1.9 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.9 2.4 0.1 9.3 8th
9th 0.4 1.5 0.7 2.5 9th
Total 0.5 3.5 9.6 18.9 22.4 21.1 14.4 6.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 84.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1
11-5 40.3% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2
10-6 11.4% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.4% 20.5% 20.5% 15.4 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-5 2.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 2.2
10-6 6.8% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 6.1
9-7 14.4% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.9 13.5
8-8 21.1% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 1.1 20.0
7-9 22.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.7 21.7
6-10 18.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.5 18.4
5-11 9.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.5
4-12 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 4.2 95.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%