Auburn
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#26
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#12
Pace72.4#100
Improvement-3.1#299

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#37
First Shot+1.9#113
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#4
Layup/Dunks+4.0#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#146
Freethrows+1.8#61
Improvement-3.1#318

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#34
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#258
Layups/Dunks+0.6#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#90
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#14
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+0.0#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 7.4% 8.5% 2.4%
Top 4 Seed 27.0% 29.9% 13.5%
Top 6 Seed 52.5% 56.4% 34.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.9% 95.2% 88.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.1% 94.5% 86.9%
Average Seed 6.2 6.0 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 93.9% 79.6%
Conference Champion 10.3% 11.8% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.8% 3.2% 6.6%
First Round92.0% 93.6% 84.8%
Second Round59.8% 62.1% 49.4%
Sweet Sixteen27.4% 29.0% 19.9%
Elite Eight11.5% 12.3% 7.6%
Final Four4.8% 5.2% 3.1%
Championship Game1.9% 2.1% 1.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 6
Quad 28 - 213 - 8
Quad 39 - 021 - 8
Quad 44 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 141   Georgia Southern W 83-74 90%     1 - 0 +7.7 -1.0 +7.6
  Nov 08, 2019 99   Davidson W 76-66 77%     2 - 0 +14.9 +2.6 +12.1
  Nov 12, 2019 175   @ South Alabama W 70-69 83%     3 - 0 +3.4 +3.4 +0.1
  Nov 15, 2019 270   Cal St. Northridge W 116-70 97%     4 - 0 +37.0 +18.0 +12.0
  Nov 18, 2019 128   Colgate W 91-62 88%     5 - 0 +28.7 +15.4 +13.2
  Nov 25, 2019 123   New Mexico W 84-59 82%     6 - 0 +27.9 +3.1 +22.7
  Nov 26, 2019 80   Richmond W 79-65 71%     7 - 0 +20.9 +8.2 +12.7
  Dec 05, 2019 89   Furman W 81-78 OT 81%     8 - 0 +6.2 +0.2 +5.7
  Dec 14, 2019 91   Saint Louis W 67-61 74%     9 - 0 +11.9 +4.9 +7.5
  Dec 19, 2019 40   North Carolina St. W 79-73 67%     10 - 0 +14.2 -1.7 +15.3
  Dec 21, 2019 274   Lehigh W 74-51 97%     11 - 0 +13.9 -4.2 +18.4
  Dec 29, 2019 255   Lipscomb W 86-59 96%     12 - 0 +18.8 +13.5 +7.1
  Jan 04, 2020 43   @ Mississippi St. W 80-68 46%     13 - 0 1 - 0 +25.7 +6.8 +18.0
  Jan 08, 2020 150   Vanderbilt W 83-79 91%     14 - 0 2 - 0 +2.0 +9.5 -7.4
  Jan 11, 2020 73   Georgia W 82-60 78%     15 - 0 3 - 0 +26.4 +12.4 +14.5
  Jan 15, 2020 35   @ Alabama L 64-83 43%     15 - 1 3 - 1 -4.6 -12.7 +11.2
  Jan 18, 2020 19   @ Florida L 47-69 35%     15 - 2 3 - 2 -5.3 -12.1 +4.2
  Jan 22, 2020 92   South Carolina W 79-69 82%    
  Jan 25, 2020 56   Iowa St. W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 28, 2020 102   @ Mississippi W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 01, 2020 14   Kentucky W 71-70 53%    
  Feb 04, 2020 39   @ Arkansas L 71-72 44%    
  Feb 08, 2020 32   LSU W 79-75 63%    
  Feb 12, 2020 35   Alabama W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 15, 2020 63   @ Missouri W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 19, 2020 73   @ Georgia W 75-72 59%    
  Feb 22, 2020 52   Tennessee W 69-63 72%    
  Feb 25, 2020 102   Mississippi W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 29, 2020 14   @ Kentucky L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 04, 2020 132   Texas A&M W 71-58 89%    
  Mar 07, 2020 52   @ Tennessee W 67-66 51%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.5 0.5 10.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 6.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 8.5 4.3 0.3 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 7.2 5.9 0.6 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.7 7.0 1.2 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 6.6 2.4 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.3 3.1 0.1 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.3 0.4 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 5.3 10.8 16.2 19.3 19.3 14.3 8.1 2.9 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 99.6% 0.5    0.5 0.1
15-3 88.6% 2.5    1.7 0.8 0.1
14-4 55.5% 4.5    1.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.8% 2.4    0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 4.1 3.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.9% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.1% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 3.0 0.9 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.3% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 4.1 0.3 1.4 3.0 4.4 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 19.3% 99.8% 14.9% 84.9% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.8 4.9 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 19.3% 98.8% 9.7% 89.1% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.5 4.4 3.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 98.7%
10-8 16.2% 96.2% 6.3% 89.9% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 3.5 3.6 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 96.0%
9-9 10.8% 88.7% 4.6% 84.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.5 1.7 0.1 1.2 88.2%
8-10 5.3% 69.0% 3.7% 65.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 0.3 1.7 67.8%
7-11 2.4% 36.4% 2.0% 34.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.6 35.1%
6-12 0.7% 15.5% 15.5% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 15.5%
5-13 0.2% 6.0% 1.2% 4.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.9% 12.2% 81.7% 6.2 2.5 5.0 7.9 11.6 12.3 13.3 11.4 9.3 8.9 6.3 4.7 0.7 6.1 93.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.9 27.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.0 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 50.8 40.0 9.2