Colorado St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#104
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#92
Pace69.9#153
Improvement+4.2#33

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#90
First Shot+3.3#77
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#202
Layup/Dunks+1.3#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#118
Freethrows+1.6#63
Improvement+2.1#73

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#128
First Shot+0.5#144
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#88
Layups/Dunks+2.7#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#273
Freethrows+3.3#20
Improvement+2.1#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 5.7% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 98.6% 99.6% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 95.4% 79.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round4.9% 5.6% 4.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 22 - 43 - 9
Quad 38 - 210 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 314   Denver W 74-63 93%     1 - 0 -1.1 -4.2 +3.1
  Nov 08, 2019 2   @ Duke L 55-89 5%     1 - 1 -10.6 -11.1 +3.4
  Nov 13, 2019 216   Nebraska Omaha W 80-65 84%     2 - 1 +8.8 +2.3 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2019 196   @ Loyola Marymount W 74-64 65%     3 - 1 +10.7 +2.1 +8.7
  Nov 20, 2019 197   Arkansas St. L 78-80 82%     3 - 2 -7.2 +3.4 -10.7
  Nov 25, 2019 96   New Mexico St. L 70-78 OT 48%     3 - 3 -2.8 -5.5 +3.3
  Nov 26, 2019 90   Loyola Chicago W 61-60 45%     4 - 3 +6.9 -0.1 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2019 128   Washington St. W 79-69 59%     5 - 3 +12.2 +5.3 +6.6
  Dec 01, 2019 258   Utah Valley W 92-61 88%     6 - 3 +22.6 +14.8 +7.1
  Dec 04, 2019 14   San Diego St. L 57-79 26%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -10.6 -1.5 -12.0
  Dec 07, 2019 91   @ Boise St. L 64-75 34%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -2.2 -8.0 +6.2
  Dec 10, 2019 142   South Dakota St. W 72-68 72%     7 - 5 +2.5 -5.4 +7.9
  Dec 13, 2019 20   Colorado L 48-56 29%     7 - 6 +2.4 -16.7 +18.8
  Dec 21, 2019 70   Tulsa W 111-104 3OT 39%     8 - 6 +14.5 +13.2 -0.6
  Jan 01, 2020 89   @ Nevada L 61-67 34%     8 - 7 0 - 3 +2.9 -10.1 +13.2
  Jan 04, 2020 282   Wyoming W 72-61 90%     9 - 7 1 - 3 +1.4 -3.2 +4.6
  Jan 11, 2020 288   @ San Jose St. W 81-70 80%     10 - 7 2 - 3 +6.7 +1.1 +5.0
  Jan 15, 2020 125   New Mexico W 105-72 68%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +32.7 +17.3 +11.6
  Jan 18, 2020 170   @ Air Force W 78-65 58%     12 - 7 4 - 3 +15.6 +4.7 +11.3
  Jan 22, 2020 159   Fresno St. W 86-68 76%     13 - 7 5 - 3 +15.3 +15.8 +0.5
  Jan 25, 2020 55   @ Utah St. L 61-77 23%     13 - 8 5 - 4 -3.7 +0.0 -5.1
  Jan 29, 2020 89   Nevada W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 01, 2020 124   UNLV W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 04, 2020 159   @ Fresno St. W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 11, 2020 55   Utah St. L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2020 282   @ Wyoming W 68-60 78%    
  Feb 18, 2020 124   @ UNLV L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 22, 2020 288   San Jose St. W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 25, 2020 14   @ San Diego St. L 61-74 11%    
  Feb 29, 2020 170   Air Force W 79-71 77%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 8.9 4.1 0.4 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 10.1 5.8 0.2 17.5 3rd
4th 0.6 8.7 9.7 0.8 19.8 4th
5th 0.3 5.1 12.7 1.8 19.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 9.7 3.3 0.0 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.5 2.8 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.6 8.3 18.2 26.2 23.9 15.5 4.4 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 10.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 20.9% 15.8% 5.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 6.1%
13-5 4.4% 10.1% 9.3% 0.8% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 0.9%
12-6 15.5% 8.6% 8.5% 0.2% 11.9 0.2 1.0 0.1 14.1 0.2%
11-7 23.9% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 22.5 0.1%
10-8 26.2% 3.5% 3.5% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 25.3
9-9 18.2% 3.2% 3.2% 12.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 17.7
8-10 8.3% 2.2% 2.2% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.1
7-11 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 13.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 95.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.5 16.2 32.4 35.1 16.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 12.0% 10.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 6.5% 11.0 6.5